IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, DECEMBER 26
Protest coordinators and organizations are encouraging citizens to demonstrate more regularly and spontaneously rather than awaiting planned protests. These protest coordinators and organizations are likely trying to reverse a natural consequence of the growing cohesion within the movement.
Protest coordinators and organizations are continuing their efforts to cause a fiscal crisis for the regime and disrupt the transportation sector. Mounting economic issues could drive further protest activity in turn, creating a self-reinforcing cycle.
The regime is further shuffling the authorities responsible for internal security in Sistan and Baluchistan Province, likely to improve efforts to stabilize the province.
The Khuzestan Neighborhood Youth posted a tweet claiming that the regime escalated against Izeh, Khuzestan Province residents.
At least five protests occurred in three cities across three provinces on December 25, and at least seven protests occurred in six cities across five provinces on December 26.
Elon Musk tweeted that almost 100 Starlink devices are currently operating in Iran.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-december-26
IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, DECEMBER 27
Some elements of the Iranian regime are increasingly framing the protest movement as an insurgency. No senior officials have yet indicated that they will adopt this harsher legal approach, but their recent rhetoric suggests it is possible. There is some evidence indicating that components of this protest movement have indeed crossed the threshold to be considered an insurgency.
The external messaging of different protest organizations may indicate divergent focuses.
Protest coordinators and organizations called for demonstrations on December 29 to commemorate several different killed protesters.
At least five protests occurred in three cities across two provinces.
Security forces are likely trying to contain commemoration ceremonies for the protesters killed when the IRGC Ground Forces deployed to West Azerbaijan Province in late-November 2022.
Social media users documented children participating in various kinds of protest activity in Mahabad, West Azerbaijan Province.
Supreme Human Rights Council Secretary Kazem Gharib Abadi denied reports of sexual abuse of female prisoners.
Iranian proxies in Iraq may attack US positions there to commemorate the three-year anniversary of the US killing Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mehdi al Muhandis.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-december-27