IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, DECEMBER 27
Some elements of the Iranian regime are increasingly framing the protest movement as an insurgency. No senior officials have yet indicated that they will adopt this harsher legal approach, but their recent rhetoric suggests it is possible. There is some evidence indicating that components of this protest movement have indeed crossed the threshold to be considered an insurgency.
The external messaging of different protest organizations may indicate divergent focuses.
Protest coordinators and organizations called for demonstrations on December 29 to commemorate several different killed protesters.
At least five protests occurred in three cities across two provinces.
Security forces are likely trying to contain commemoration ceremonies for the protesters killed when the IRGC Ground Forces deployed to West Azerbaijan Province in late-November 2022.
Social media users documented children participating in various kinds of protest activity in Mahabad, West Azerbaijan Province.
Supreme Human Rights Council Secretary Kazem Gharib Abadi denied reports of sexual abuse of female prisoners.
Iranian proxies in Iraq may attack US positions there to commemorate the three-year anniversary of the US killing Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mehdi al Muhandis.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-december-27
IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, DECEMBER 28
Iranian security officials and entities attempted to declare an end to protest activity on December 28 despite ongoing acts of anti-regime defiance documented throughout the country.
Iran’s deteriorating economic and energy conditions have the potential to further inflame anti-regime demonstrations.
At least four protests occurred in four cities across four provinces.
Protest coordinators reiterated calls for anti-regime protests and strikes on December 29 and January 6-8.
President Ebrahim Raisi and his cabinet appointed Hossein Mehrab as Khuzestan provincial governor on December 28.
Former reformist President Hassan Rouhani discussed solutions to anti-regime activity with former governors from his administration on December 26.
Social media users reported that petrochemical workers in Abadan, Khuzestan Province participated in anti-regime strikes for a third consecutive day.
The Turkish, Russia, and Syrian Defense Ministers held a trilateral meeting on December 28 in Moscow.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-december-28