Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei rejected the United States’ demands for Iran to halt uranium enrichment and limit its ballistic missile program in a speech on February 17.[1] Khamenei’s speech coincided with the second round of US-Iran talks in Geneva, Switzerland.[2] Khamenei stated that Iran has a “right” to have a “nuclear industry,” which is a reference to Iran's nuclear program and uranium enrichment capabilities.[3] Khamenei also described Iran's “possession of deterrent weapons,” almost certainly in reference to Iran's ballistic missiles, as “essential and obligatory” and claimed that this issue has “nothing to do with” the United States.[4] Iran's ballistic missile program poses a threat to the United States because Iran has used its ballistic missiles to target US forces and allies in the region.[5] Iranian officials at all levels have echoed Khamenei’s position on these issues in recent days.[6] Khamenei’s speech comes as the United States and Iran held a second round of talks in Geneva on February 17.[7] Chief mediator and Omani Foreign Affairs Minister Badr al Busaidi said that both sides made “good progress towards identifying common goals and relevant technical issues” during the talks.[8] Iran and the United States do not appear to have agreed on anything substantial, however. Iranian lead negotiator and Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi acknowledged after the talks that the United States and Iran “still hold positions that require work to reconcile.”[9] A former adviser to Araghchi described the atmosphere of the talks as “not great” but later deleted his comment.[10] US Vice President JD Vance told Fox News on February 17 that US President Donald Trump “set several red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to acknowledge and work through.”[11] A US official speaking to Western media on February 17 noted that the Iranian delegation agreed to resume talks in two weeks to address the “open gaps” between the Iranian and US positions.[12]
Iran has presented several proposals to the United States that do not meet the United States’ demand for zero enrichment. Iranian diplomats have reportedly suggested in negotiations that Iran could agree to temporarily halt enrichment for up to three years or establish a regional enrichment facility on Iranian soil to provide low-enriched uranium to regional countries, according to US, Iranian, and regional diplomats speaking to Western and Israeli media.[13] Temporarily halting uranium enrichment would enable Iran to continue enriching uranium in the future. Iran reportedly rejected a recent proposal from US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff to halt uranium enrichment for three to five years and then enrich uranium at 1.5 percent, although a US official denied that Witkoff presented such a proposal to Iran.[14] Establishing a regional enrichment facility in Iran would similarly enable Iran to continue enriching uranium. The United States previously proposed a regional consortium framework before the June 2025 Israel-Iran War that would have given Iran access to enriched uranium.[15] Iran rejected this proposal because the consortium's enrichment facility would have been located outside Iran.[16]
Iran seeks significant economic relief in return for the limited nuclear concessions it is offering to make. Iranian officials told the Wall Street Journal that, “at a minimum,” Iran wants the United States to unfreeze the $6 billion USD worth of frozen Iranian assets in Qatar.[17] The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran head recently stated that Iran could dilute its highly enriched uranium if the United States lifts “all sanctions” on Iran.[18] Iran could use the money that it gains access to through an agreement with the United States to develop its missile program and support the Axis of Resistance, which would pose a threat to US assets and allies in the region.
Iran is continuing to try to prepare for and deter potential US military action by conducting a multi-day naval exercise in the Strait of Hormuz.[19] The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy started an exercise on February 16 and reportedly closed off areas of the Strait of Hormuz to conduct various offensive and defensive drills. These drills include deploying fast attack craft and testing unspecified missiles and drones.[20] IRGC Navy Commander Rear Admiral Alireza Tangsiri claimed on February 17 that the IRGC Navy has deployed military equipment during this exercise that it did not use in the June 2025 Israel-Iran War.[21] The IRGC Navy will conduct the second phase of this exercise on February 18.[22]
Some Iranians held anti-regime protests on February 17 despite the regime's recent brutal crackdown on protesters, which highlights how some parts of the Iranian population remain extremely frustrated and disillusioned with the regime. CTP-ISW recorded 12 protests across seven provinces on February 17 during ceremonies marking the end of the 40-day mourning period for protesters killed on January 8.[23] The 40th day of mourning marks the end of the initial mourning period and is often observed with public commemorations and gatherings in Shia Islam. CTP-ISW recorded one instance of Iranian security forces shooting at memorial participants who were chanting an anti-regime slogan in Abdanan, Ilam Province.[24] Iranian security forces pressured a family to cancel its 40-day memorial in Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province, which highlights the regime's concern that memorials honoring killed protesters can transform into anti-regime protests.[25] Shopkeepers in Ilam Province also closed their shops in solidarity with those mourning the killing of protesters.[26] Protest activity peaked on January 8 and 9.[27] Iranian Health Ministry officials previously told TIME Magazine that security forces may have killed over 30,000 protesters on January 8 and 9 alone.[28] The protests on February 17 highlight how the regime's repression of its population creates greater disaffection and anger toward the regime, which can in turn set conditions for further anti-regime activity.[29] CTP-ISW previously assessed on January 15 that the regime had suppressed the recent protest movement, but that protests could resume if the regime eases its securitization measures, and because the regime has not addressed the underlying grievances that triggered the recent protest movement.[30]
Iranian security forces conducted a targeted raid in Chenar town, Asadabad District, Hamedan Province, on February 16, likely to preempt or disrupt some kind of anti-regime activity.[31] It is unclear what type of activity the regime sought to prevent or disrupt, but the timing of the raid suggests that security forces may have sought to prevent protests from breaking out during the 40-day mourning ceremonies. The fact that security forces only conducted a raid in a small town in Hamedan Province suggests that this raid is not part of a broader regime effort to crack down on mourning ceremonies across Iran. The limited scope of the raid suggests that security forces were instead targeting a specific individual, network, or infrastructure in the town linked to anti-regime activity.
The Mobarizoun Popular Front (MPF), which is a coalition of anti-regime Baloch groups, claimed on February 15 that its fighters targeted and destroyed an Iranian security forces vehicle. The group claimed that the vehicle was headed to Saravan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province, to “suppress citizens.”[74] The MPF has carried out several attacks against Iranian security forces since the group was formed in early December 2025.[75]
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-17-2026/
An unspecified adviser to US President Donald Trump told Axios on February 18 that Trump is frustrated with the insufficient progress made towards an agreement with Iran.[1] CTP-ISW continues to assess that both sides’ negotiating red lines make reaching an agreement unlikely unless the position of either side changes. The Iranian regime has not indicated that it is willing to commit to US demands of zero enrichment, limiting its ballistic missile program, or ceasing support for its proxies and partners in the region.[2] The Trump adviser told Axios that there is a “90 percent” chance of US military action “in the next few weeks.”[3] Other unspecified sources described a joint US-Israeli campaign that would be “massive,” “weeks-long,” and “existential” for the regime.[4] Two Israeli officials told Axios that Israel is preparing for a military conflict to possibly take place “within days.”[5] The United States has moved a large number of assets into the region, including the upcoming arrival of the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group.[6]
Some Iranians continued to hold anti-regime protests on February 18 despite the Iranian regime's brutal crackdown on the recent wave of protests, which emphasizes the deep public frustration and disillusionment with the regime for its refusal to address the people's grievances. CTP-ISW recorded six anti-regime protests across five provinces on February 18 at memorials that marked the end of the 40-day mourning period for protesters killed by security forces on January 8 and 9.[7] A BBC journalist reported that security forces fired tear gas targeting protesters and detained several protesters at Behest-e Zahra cemetery, Tehran City, on February 18.[8] Another Iranian journalist circulated photos of several Basij personnel in Sattarkhan Neighborhood, central Tehran City, on February 18.[9] An Esfahan City resident told Reuters on February 18 that ”people are [still] angry” and ”frustrated” at the regime and asked ”how long can [the regime] kill people to stay in power?”[10] The Iranian Teachers Union held a nationwide strike on February 18 to mark the end of the 40-day mourning period as well, which resulted in the closures of many schools across Iran.[11] Security forces killed at least 7,000 individuals and detained well over 50,000 protesters during the recent protests, according to a US-based Iran human rights organization on February 15.[12]
Iran is continuing its efforts to fortify the Taleghan 2 facility at Parchin Military Complex, which is consistent with Iranian efforts since the Israel-Iran War to rebuild its nuclear program and harden nuclear facilities against future airstrikes. The Institute for Science and International Security reported on February 17 that Iran has covered the facility with soil, after the regime had already encased the facility with a concrete “sarcophagus” to protect against airstrikes.[31] Parchin is a defense industrial site that Iran has used to develop and manufacture explosive materials, rockets, and other munitions.[32] Iran used the Taleghan 2 facility to test explosives that are needed to detonate a nuclear device before it suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003.[33] Israel struck Taleghan 2 and destroyed equipment that would be needed to design and test explosives used in nuclear devices in October 2024.[34] The Institute for Science and International Security has assessed in recent weeks that Iran is also hardening infrastructure at the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center and Kolang Gaz La Mountain nuclear facility in preparation for possible future strikes.[35] CTP-ISW previously assessed that Iran may prolong the talks with the United States to provide itself additional time to reconstitute its nuclear and/or ballistic missile programs.[36]
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-18-2026/