An unspecified adviser to US President Donald Trump told Axios on February 18 that Trump is frustrated with the insufficient progress made towards an agreement with Iran.[1] CTP-ISW continues to assess that both sides’ negotiating red lines make reaching an agreement unlikely unless the position of either side changes. The Iranian regime has not indicated that it is willing to commit to US demands of zero enrichment, limiting its ballistic missile program, or ceasing support for its proxies and partners in the region.[2] The Trump adviser told Axios that there is a “90 percent” chance of US military action “in the next few weeks.”[3] Other unspecified sources described a joint US-Israeli campaign that would be “massive,” “weeks-long,” and “existential” for the regime.[4] Two Israeli officials told Axios that Israel is preparing for a military conflict to possibly take place “within days.”[5] The United States has moved a large number of assets into the region, including the upcoming arrival of the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group.[6]
Some Iranians continued to hold anti-regime protests on February 18 despite the Iranian regime's brutal crackdown on the recent wave of protests, which emphasizes the deep public frustration and disillusionment with the regime for its refusal to address the people's grievances. CTP-ISW recorded six anti-regime protests across five provinces on February 18 at memorials that marked the end of the 40-day mourning period for protesters killed by security forces on January 8 and 9.[7] A BBC journalist reported that security forces fired tear gas targeting protesters and detained several protesters at Behest-e Zahra cemetery, Tehran City, on February 18.[8] Another Iranian journalist circulated photos of several Basij personnel in Sattarkhan Neighborhood, central Tehran City, on February 18.[9] An Esfahan City resident told Reuters on February 18 that ”people are [still] angry” and ”frustrated” at the regime and asked ”how long can [the regime] kill people to stay in power?”[10] The Iranian Teachers Union held a nationwide strike on February 18 to mark the end of the 40-day mourning period as well, which resulted in the closures of many schools across Iran.[11] Security forces killed at least 7,000 individuals and detained well over 50,000 protesters during the recent protests, according to a US-based Iran human rights organization on February 15.[12]
Iran is continuing its efforts to fortify the Taleghan 2 facility at Parchin Military Complex, which is consistent with Iranian efforts since the Israel-Iran War to rebuild its nuclear program and harden nuclear facilities against future airstrikes. The Institute for Science and International Security reported on February 17 that Iran has covered the facility with soil, after the regime had already encased the facility with a concrete “sarcophagus” to protect against airstrikes.[31] Parchin is a defense industrial site that Iran has used to develop and manufacture explosive materials, rockets, and other munitions.[32] Iran used the Taleghan 2 facility to test explosives that are needed to detonate a nuclear device before it suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003.[33] Israel struck Taleghan 2 and destroyed equipment that would be needed to design and test explosives used in nuclear devices in October 2024.[34] The Institute for Science and International Security has assessed in recent weeks that Iran is also hardening infrastructure at the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center and Kolang Gaz La Mountain nuclear facility in preparation for possible future strikes.[35] CTP-ISW previously assessed that Iran may prolong the talks with the United States to provide itself additional time to reconstitute its nuclear and/or ballistic missile programs.[36]
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-18-2026/
US President Donald Trump stated on February 19 that he will likely decide on whether the United States will strike Iran within the next ten days.[1] Trump warned Iran to accept a deal and threatened unspecified consequences if it does not.[2] One US official told Axios on February 19 that Iran has until the end of February 2026 to present the Trump administration with substantive steps to address US concerns regarding its nuclear program, which is consistent with Trump's ten-day deadline.[3] A second US official voiced pessimism that the Geneva talks on February 17 would result in a deal.[4] ISW-CTP continues to assess that Iran is unlikely to meet US demands of zero-enrichment, limiting its ballistic missile program, or ceasing support for its proxies and partners in the region.[5] The US statements come amid a large number of US military deployments to the region, including the upcoming arrival of the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group.[6]
Iranian naval forces hosted an Iranian-Russian naval exercise on February 19, which Iran likely used to signal its solidarity with Russia and practice offensive and defensive maneuvers in and around the Strait of Hormuz in preparation for US military action against Iran. The Iranian First Artesh Naval Base in Bandar Abbas hosted a joint Iranian-Russian naval exercise in the Gulf of Oman and the southern tip of the Persian Gulf on February 19, during which Iranian naval forces rehearsed detecting and freeing a hijacked commercial vessel using coordinated air, sea, and special-forces operations.[7] Iranian Artesh and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) units – alongside Russian naval forces, helicopters, and a Steregushchiy-class corvette – participated in the exercise to practice joint command-and-control, rapid response, and combined assault methods.[8] Iranian and Russian naval officials said that the February 19 drills aim to counter maritime security threats, enhance cooperation through counterterrorism operations, and strengthen bilateral naval interactions.[9] Iran also issued a notice to airmen for missile launches on February 19 across southeastern Iran and in the Gulf of Oman, which appears to be related to the joint naval exercise.[10] Iranian media said the exercise demonstrated Iran's independence in maintaining regional security and highlighted Iran's growing long‑range anti‑ship and missile capabilities.[11] The IRGC Navy recently conducted a similar exercise in the Strait of Hormuz on February 17 and 18.[12]
Iranians held the most protests on a single day since January 11 on February 19. There were five large protests and 14 other protests. ISW-CTP classifies protests as “large” when they are estimated to include at least a thousand protesters. These protests illustrate that the motivations driving the initial days of the protest movement have not abated despite the pause in protests in late January and early February 2026. ISW-CTP recorded 19 protests across eight provinces on February 19 during ceremonies marking the end of the 40-day mourning period for protesters killed on January 8 and 9, which is when protest activity peaked. The 40th day of mourning marks the end of the initial mourning period and is often observed with public commemorations and gatherings in Shia Islam. There were at least 1,000 individuals present in five of the 19 protests, which are the first protests of this size since at least January 11.[13] ISW-CTP previously assessed on January 15 that the regime had suppressed the recent protest movement, but that protests could resume if the regime eases its securitization measures, and because the regime has not addressed the underlying grievances that triggered the recent protest movement.[14]
The Iranian regime remains concerned that anti-regime Kurdish militant groups will infiltrate Iran from Iraqi Kurdistan and incite protests in Iran. Norway-based Kurdish human rights organizations reported on February 18 that Iran launched a drone strike targeting a vehicle in Sulaymaniyah Province, Iraq, which killed at least one Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)-affiliated Peshmerga fighter and injured two others.[67] Local Iraqi Kurdish media reported that an unknown actor targeted a civilian vehicle either by a drone or an improvised explosive device (IED) in Sulaymaniyah Province on February 18, but did not attribute the attack to Iran.[68] The Iranian media has not acknowledged the incident at the time of this writing. Iranian authorities have reportedly launched previous attacks against Kurdish groups in Iraqi Kurdistan, including a January 21, 2026, ballistic missile and drone attack against the Kurdistan Freedom Party's Kurdistan National Army Unit in Koya District, Erbil City.[69] The Iranian regime has long been concerned about cross-border Kurdish militant activity and has cooperated with Iraq to counter this activity as part of the March 2023 Iran-Iraq border security agreement.[70] Iran is particularly concerned that these anti-regime Kurdish militant groups may infiltrate Iran and incite unrest, especially in the wake of the recent protest wave. Several Kurdish groups called for an economic strike in western Iran during the recent protests, which Iranian media called ”an incitement of terrorism.”[71]
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-19-2026/