Iranian regime officials have continued to observe and respond to ongoing discussions in Western media about US concerns about a protracted conflict in the Middle East, likely as part of its effort to try to deter the United States from attacking Iran. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei warned on February 1 that a US attack on Iran would lead to a regional war.[1] Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also stated on February 1 that if the United States attacks Iran, the conflict will extend to the region and Iran will target all US bases.[2] Iran previously conducted a missile attack in June 2025 targeting al Udeid Airbase in Qatar, which is a key US facility in the region, in retaliation for the US strikes on the Iranian nuclear program during the Israel-Iran War.[3] These statements are likely a response to recent media reports that the United States does not want a wider regional war.[4] Iran is likely threatening to get its regional partners involved and expand a potential conflict in order to try to deter a US attack against Iran.
Iranian officials are continuing to discuss the possibility of US and Iranian strikes with other regional countries, likely as part of a diplomatic effort to avoid a US strike. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammad bin Abdulrahman al Thani met with Iranian Supreme National Security Council of Iran (SNSC) Secretary Ali Larijani and Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi in Tehran on January 31.[5] Thani indicated Qatar's support for decreasing regional tensions and emphasized strengthening regional security and stability via peaceful efforts. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al Sisi also separately spoke with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on January 31. Sisi noted that Cairo is continuing its efforts to restart negotiations between Iran and the United States.[6]
The Gulf states have reportedly warned the United States that Iran's missile program could cause significant damage to US interests in the region, according to two Western officials speaking to Washington Post.[7] The Washington Post reported on February 1 that a Gulf assessment concluded that several key elements of Iran's missile program remain intact, including short-range ballistic missiles and their launchers and some elements of its missile production system. The Gulf assessment also noted the Iranian regime has rebuilt its other, unspecified capabilities that were likely damaged in the June 2025 Israel-Iran War. A former Iranian diplomat told the Washington Post that Iran has doubled its missile production since the war and has made significant progress in repairing launchers damaged during the war.[8] The diplomat noted that the regime has deployed some launchers into Iran's mountainous regions in an attempt to make it more difficult for the United States or Israel to destroy these launchers.
The Iranian regime has continued to downplay the number of civilians it killed during the recent nationwide protests. The Office of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian shared a list of 2,986 protesters on February 1 who the regime killed during the recent protests in Iran.[50] Western media outlets have previously reported protester death toll estimates to be between 2,000 and 20,000.[51] The death toll reported by Western media outlets far surpasses the approximately 1,500 protesters who were killed in 2019 and the approximately 550 protesters who were killed during the 2022-2023 Mahsa Amini movement.[52]
An unidentified Iranian official told Reuters on February 1 that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) naval forces have “no plan” to carry out live-fire exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, a day after US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported the IRGC Navy would hold a two-day exercise beginning on February 1.[53]
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Iran’s army will hold a military exercise on Tuesday and Wednesday in the western border town of Qasr-e Shirin, local officials said.
The county governor said the drill would take place on Feb. 3 and 4 and warned residents that sounds of explosions would be linked to the exercise.
Qasr-e Shirin lies near Iran’s border with Iraq.
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602024783
The Iranian regime is conducting a concerted campaign that involves diplomatic, informational, and military lines of effort to try to prevent US military action against Iran. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi, President Masoud Pezeshkian, and Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Secretary Ali Larijani have conducted a flurry of diplomatic activity with regional countries in recent days.[1] Araghchi met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in Istanbul on January 30.[2] Axios subsequently reported on February 2, citing two “sources with knowledge” and an unspecified US official, that Araghchi and US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff are expected to meet in Turkey on February 6 to discuss a possible nuclear deal.[3] Iranian officials have signaled openness to resuming nuclear negotiations with the United States in recent days, likely to try to delay or prevent a US attack on Iran.[4] Iran previously engaged in negotiations with the United States in the spring of 2025 to try to prevent military action against it.[5]
Iran is unlikely to accede to US President Donald Trump's preconditions for negotiations. The United States has demanded that Iran permanently halt uranium enrichment, limit its ballistic missile program, and end “all support” for the Axis of Resistance as preconditions for negotiations.[6] Iranian officials have repeatedly insisted that Iran will not negotiate on its ballistic missile program or support for the Axis of Resistance, which constitute the main pillars of Iran's deterrence and defense strategies.[7] It is possible that the regime could agree to reduce its uranium enrichment, but the regime is unlikely to accept Trump's demand for zero enrichment. Two Iranian officials told Reuters on February 2 that the regime views Trump's demand regarding Iran's ballistic missile program as a “bigger obstacle” than Trump's demand regarding uranium enrichment.[8] This statement suggests that the regime could potentially show some flexibility on the uranium enrichment issue, particularly if it views a potential US attack against Iran as an existential threat. Iranian officials previously stated during negotiations with the United States in the spring of 2025 that Iran would be willing to reduce its uranium enrichment to 3.67 percent, which was the enrichment limit in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).[9]
Iran may be trying to reduce the United States’ leverage and ability to pressure the regime to accede to US demands. An unspecified Iranian official told Reuters on February 2 that Iran “wants” the United States to remove its military assets from the Middle East before Iran engages in talks with the United States.[10] CNN reported on February 1 that progress toward renewing negotiations between Iran and the United States “appear[ed] to have stumbled,” in part due to the United States’ unwillingness to reduce its military presence in the Middle East.[11] This report suggests that Iran may have formally made the removal of US military assets from the region a precondition for negotiations, which would be consistent with Iran's efforts to delay or prevent a US attack on Iran.
Some Iranian officials have told Western media that Iran would be willing to offer nuclear concessions to the United States. CTP-ISW has not observed any indications that the regime has altered its position on the nuclear issue. An unspecified Iranian official told Reuters on February 2 that Iran is willing to “accept zero enrichment under a consortium agreement” and hand over 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium (HEU).[12] Iran possessed around 440 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 60 percent before the Israel-Iran War.[13] The Iranian regime previously rejected a US proposal in June 2025 to establish a regional nuclear consortium because the proposal would have ultimately required Iran to halt domestic uranium enrichment.[14] Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei stated at the time that enrichment is an Iranian “red line” and that Iran's nuclear program without enrichment is “practically worthless.”[15] CTP-ISW has not observed any indications that the regime has softened its position on this issue. SNSC Foreign Policy Deputy Ali Bagheri separately emphasized on February 2 that Iran will not transfer its HEU stockpile to another country.[16]
The Iranian regime has continued to warn that a US attack on Iran would trigger a regional conflict. This warning is part of the regime's ongoing informational effort to exploit the United States’ concerns about a protracted regional war to try to deter a US attack. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-affiliated Tasnim News Agency warned on February 2 that a US attack on Iran could trigger a regional war because Iran could retaliate by attacking Israel, international shipping, or US bases in regional countries.[17] Tasnim added that Iran would be “the center of a potential network of conflicts” if the United States attacks Iran.[18] Iranian Armed Forces General Staff-run media similarly warned on February 2 that a US attack on Iran would expand beyond a “limited bilateral conflict” between Iran and the United States into a “multi-level crisis with far-reaching consequences for American interests.”[19] These Iranian media reports echo Khamenei’s warning on February 1 that a US attack on Iran would stoke a regional war.[20]
The Iranian regime has also warned that a US attack on Iran could destabilize Middle Eastern countries that host US bases, likely to try to pressure these countries to urge the United States to refrain from attacking Iran. Tasnim stated on February 2 that Iran could respond to a US attack on Iran by attacking US bases in regional countries and argued that such retaliatory attacks could threaten the “security and stability” of countries that host US bases.[21] Tasnim added that regional countries that host US bases could become involved in “security challenges that have nothing to do with them” if the United States attacks Iran. This report comes amid some regional countries’ opposition to a US attack on Iran. An official from an unspecified Gulf state told the New York Times on January 15 that Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Egypt had urged the United States not to attack Iran because they were concerned that Iran could retaliate by striking their territory.[22] The Washington Post separately reported on February 1 that Gulf states warned the United States that Iran retains short-range ballistic missiles and launchers that it could use to strike US interests in the Persian Gulf.[23] Iran has previously struck US interests in regional countries in response to US actions, including in January 2020 when Iran attacked Ain al Asad Airbase in Iraq and in June 2025 when Iran attacked al Udeid Airbase in Qatar.[24]
The Iranian regime has also highlighted its armed forces’ ability and willingness to respond to a US attack as part of its military effort to try to prevent such an attack. The IRGC Navy planned to conduct a live-fire exercise in the Strait of Hormuz on February 1 and 2.[25] CTP-ISW assessed on January 29 that the exercise was likely intended to try to deter US military action against Iran.[26] CTP-ISW also assessed that Iran could respond to a potential US attack by harassing or attacking international shipping.[27] The IRGC Navy cancelled the exercise, however, reportedly following a US warning.[28] Senior Iranian military commanders, including Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Abdol Rahim Mousavi and Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters Deputy Commander Brigadier General Kiomars Heydari, have also continued to vow that Iranian forces will respond harshly to a US attack.[29] Iranian officials and media have repeatedly threatened in recent days and weeks that Iran could attack Israel, international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, or US bases in the region, in response to a potential attack.[30]
Iran has several military capabilities that it could use to respond to a US attack, but some of its offensive capabilities are degraded. Iran could use its naval capabilities to harass and attack US vessels or international shipping in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. Iran also retains short-range ballistic missiles and launchers that it could use to target US bases.[31] Israel destroyed at least 35-45 percent of Iran's ballistic missile stockpile during the Israel-Iran War, but Iran has reportedly reconstituted its medium-range ballistic missile stockpile to pre-war levels.[32] Iran could use these medium-range missiles to attack Israel. Despite these military capabilities, Iran's Axis of Resistance is significantly weakened and degraded. Iran has long relied on the Axis of Resistance to deter and respond to US and Israeli actions against Iran. The Axis of Resistance failed to meaningfully support Iran during the Israel-Iran War, however, and it is unclear whether the groups that comprise the Axis of Resistance would intervene in a renewed conflict between Iran and the United States.[33]
The Iranian regime seeks to deter a US attack, in part because US military action would presumably disrupt Iran's efforts to reconstitute its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Iran has taken steps following the Israel-Iran War to rebuild its nuclear program and harden nuclear facilities against future airstrikes. Iran is encasing a newly built facility at Taleghan 2 at the Parchin Military Complex with a concrete “sarcophagus” to harden the facility against potential airstrikes, according to the Institute for Science and International Security.[34] Israel struck Taleghan 2 in October 2024.[35] Iran has also covered the anti-drone cage at the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP) at the Natanz Nuclear Complex with panels.[36] Israel struck the PFEP, which contained over 1,700 centrifuges, in June 2025.[37] Recent US intelligence has also found that Iran is trying to rebuild its nuclear facilities “deeper underground,” according to a person familiar with recent US intelligence speaking to CNN on January 29.[38] It is unclear which facilities Iran is trying to rebuild deeper underground, although Iran has been conducting construction at the Mount Kolang Gaz La facility near Natanz, which, according to unspecified analysts, told the Washington Post in September 2025, could contain underground halls between 260 and 330 feet deep.[39]
CTP-ISW previously assessed that Iran has been prioritizing the reconstitution of its ballistic missile program after the Israel-Iran War.[40] Iran has sought to reconstruct buildings that previously housed planetary mixers at the Parchin and Shahroud military complexes.[41] Planetary mixers are necessary for producing solid fuel for ballistic missiles. The United States reportedly intercepted a shipment of planetary mixers from the People's Republic of China in the Indian Ocean in November 2025.[42] A US attack on Iran would presumably disrupt Iran's efforts to reconstitute its ballistic missile program because Iran would likely expend its ballistic missile stockpile to retaliate against the United States. Israeli media has also reported that Israel asked the United States to strike Iran's ballistic missile facilities if it decides to attack Iran in order to limit Iran's ability to retaliate.[43]
The Iranian regime is also reportedly concerned that a US strike could trigger renewed internal unrest. Four current Iranian officials told Reuters on February 2 that high-level officials told Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei that public anger over the regime's brutal crackdown on the recent protests has reached a point that “fear is no longer a deterrent.”[44] The officials told Khamenei that a US strike on Iran could “embolden” Iranians to resume protesting and “inflict irreparable damage to the political establishment.” One of the officials stated that a US attack combined with protests could cause the regime to collapse, adding that this is the “main concern” among senior Iranian officials. CTP-ISW previously assessed that the regime has suppressed the protest movement for now, but that the regime's unsustainable securitization measures and refusal to address the underlying grievances that triggered the recent protest movement could cause protests to resume.[45]
The Iranian Artesh Ground Forces will hold a military exercise in Qasr-e Shirin County, Kermanshah Province, on February 2 and 3.[69] Units from the 181st Armored Brigade, which is based in Eslamabad-e Gharb, Kermanshah Province, will participate in the exercise.[70] The Artesh Ground Forces may conduct this exercise in response to the regime's concerns about Kurdish opposition groups that operate in western and northwestern Iran. The regime has historically accused these groups of inciting social unrest among Iran's Kurdish population.[71] The Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK) claimed an attack on Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) positions in Kermanshah Province during the recent protests, killing an unspecified number of IRGC personnel.[72] The regime deployed the IRGC Ground Forces 29th Nabi Akram Division to suppress protests in Kermanshah on January 8.[73]
Former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani warned on January 31 that the Iranian regime could face renewed nationwide protests if it does not implement major reforms to address the Iranian public's grievances.[74] Rouhani echoed the regime's rhetoric that “terrorists” took advantage of popular protests but added that the regime should not use such rhetoric to undermine the “legitimate demands” of the people.[75] Rouhani stated that the regime should not silence people and should instead implement reforms so that the population does not seek “foreign intervention.”[76] CTP-ISW previously assessed that the regime has not indicated a willingness to address the underlying causes of the recent protest movement, which increases the probability of renewed protests.[77] Rouhani also stated that the regime should try to mitigate tensions with the United States.[78] Some hardliners, including parliamentarians, criticized Rouhani for his remarks.[79] Parliamentarian Amirhossein Sabeti criticized Rouhani’s call for reform and called on the judiciary to prosecute Rouhani for his mismanagement during his presidency, for example.[80]
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