Iran Update, January 31, 2026
Iran may be attempting to deter a possible US strike by moving forces and conducting a live-fire naval exercise in the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command (CENTCOM) said on January 30 that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy will hold a two-day live-fire naval exercise in the Strait of Hormuz starting on February 1.[1] CENTCOM urged the IRGC to conduct the exercise in a “safe and professional” manner and to avoid placing international maritime navigation at “unnecessary risk.”[2] Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on X on January 31 that freedom of navigation and the safe passage of commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz are vital for Iran and its neighbors and claimed that “outside forces in the region” have historically fueled escalation.[3] Iranian Armed Forces General Staff-affiliated outlet Defa Press claimed on January 29 that the IRGC Navy deployed “hundreds of fast, missile-launching, and support vessels in close proximity” to the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier.[4] Commercially available satellite imagery from January 27 also showed the IRGC Navy’s “Shahid Bagheri” drone carrier about six kilometers off the coast of Bandar Abbas in the Strait of Hormuz.[5] These naval deployments and the upcoming exercise are notable because Iran did not employ its naval forces during the June 2025 Israel-Iran War. A policy analyst close to the regime stated on January 31 that the “naval-missile” exercise in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf aims to deter any possibility of a naval blockade by demonstrating Iran’s military resolve to counter it.[6]
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-january-31-2026/
Iranian regime officials have continued to observe and respond to ongoing discussions in Western media about US concerns about a protracted conflict in the Middle East, likely as part of its effort to try to deter the United States from attacking Iran. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei warned on February 1 that a US attack on Iran would lead to a regional war.[1] Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also stated on February 1 that if the United States attacks Iran, the conflict will extend to the region and Iran will target all US bases.[2] Iran previously conducted a missile attack in June 2025 targeting al Udeid Airbase in Qatar, which is a key US facility in the region, in retaliation for the US strikes on the Iranian nuclear program during the Israel-Iran War.[3] These statements are likely a response to recent media reports that the United States does not want a wider regional war.[4] Iran is likely threatening to get its regional partners involved and expand a potential conflict in order to try to deter a US attack against Iran.
Iranian officials are continuing to discuss the possibility of US and Iranian strikes with other regional countries, likely as part of a diplomatic effort to avoid a US strike. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammad bin Abdulrahman al Thani met with Iranian Supreme National Security Council of Iran (SNSC) Secretary Ali Larijani and Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi in Tehran on January 31.[5] Thani indicated Qatar's support for decreasing regional tensions and emphasized strengthening regional security and stability via peaceful efforts. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al Sisi also separately spoke with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on January 31. Sisi noted that Cairo is continuing its efforts to restart negotiations between Iran and the United States.[6]
The Gulf states have reportedly warned the United States that Iran's missile program could cause significant damage to US interests in the region, according to two Western officials speaking to Washington Post.[7] The Washington Post reported on February 1 that a Gulf assessment concluded that several key elements of Iran's missile program remain intact, including short-range ballistic missiles and their launchers and some elements of its missile production system. The Gulf assessment also noted the Iranian regime has rebuilt its other, unspecified capabilities that were likely damaged in the June 2025 Israel-Iran War. A former Iranian diplomat told the Washington Post that Iran has doubled its missile production since the war and has made significant progress in repairing launchers damaged during the war.[8] The diplomat noted that the regime has deployed some launchers into Iran's mountainous regions in an attempt to make it more difficult for the United States or Israel to destroy these launchers.
The Iranian regime has continued to downplay the number of civilians it killed during the recent nationwide protests. The Office of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian shared a list of 2,986 protesters on February 1 who the regime killed during the recent protests in Iran.[50] Western media outlets have previously reported protester death toll estimates to be between 2,000 and 20,000.[51] The death toll reported by Western media outlets far surpasses the approximately 1,500 protesters who were killed in 2019 and the approximately 550 protesters who were killed during the 2022-2023 Mahsa Amini movement.[52]
An unidentified Iranian official told Reuters on February 1 that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) naval forces have “no plan” to carry out live-fire exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, a day after US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported the IRGC Navy would hold a two-day exercise beginning on February 1.[53]
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-1-2026/
