The Iranian regime views the protests as a proto-revolution that it must crush completely and immediately. Some Iranians are resisting the regime, in some cases violently, which reinforces the regime's view that the protests retain the potential to transform into a revolution. The regime will likely succeed in quelling this resistance if it can retain the loyalty of security forces and prevent those who are resisting the regime from acquiring the wherewithal to challenge the regime's ability and willingness to sustain its crackdown. The regime has abandoned any effort it made in the beginning of this protest movement to distinguish between legitimate economic protests and illegitimate anti-regime protests. Iranian media and officials, including those who expressed sympathy for protesters in the beginning of this protest movement, are categorically describing protesters as “terrorists.”[1] Iranian Justice Minister Amir Hossein Rahimi stated on January 14 that any protester who has participated in protests after January 8—which is when the rate and scope of the protests expanded dramatically—is guilty of taking part in an “internal war.”[2] Rahimi’s statement highlights how the regime has stopped showing any tolerance toward protests, as it did to an extent in the beginning of the protest movement, and views any protest as a serious threat to the regime.
The extent and extremity of the regime's use of violence to quell the protests further demonstrate that the regime views the protests as a proto-revolution. Reports from eyewitnesses and protesters in Iran describe an unprecedented degree of regime brutality toward protesters. Iranians told BBC Persian on January 11 that the scale of deaths and injuries in the current protest movement is “unprecedented and incomparable” to previous protest waves.[3] Amnesty International reported on January 14 that regime security forces have committed “unlawful killings…on an unprecedented scale.”[4] Western media outlets have reported protester death toll estimates between 2,000 and 20,000.[5] These numbers surpass the approximately 1,500 protesters who were killed in 2019 and approximately 550 protesters who were killed during the 2022-2023 Mahsa Amini movement.[6] A US-based human rights organization also estimated that the regime has arrested over 10,000 individuals in the current wave of protests thus far.[7] The regime previously arrested around 7,000 individuals in the 2019 protests and 20,000 individuals during the Mahsa Amini movement. The regime arrested 20,000 individuals over a roughly three-month period, whereas the regime has arrested 10,000 individuals in the past two and a half weeks.
CTP-ISW recorded zero protests on January 14, but the regime is sustaining repressive measures that impose a significant cost on the regime. This suggests that the regime does not perceive that the threat from protests has subsided. The regime is maintaining security force mobilizations, which risks exhausting and burning out these forces. Security forces are patrolling streets in towns and cities across Iran to prevent Iranians from holding demonstrations.[8] Sources in Chalus, Mazandaran Province, for example, told a BBC Persian reporter on January 11 that “security forces with machine guns have been stationed in all streets.”[9] The widespread deployment of security patrols is likely contributing to the decrease in recorded protest activity because these patrols are likely deterring some Iranians from participating in protests. The sustained mobilization of security forces increases the risk that the regime will burn out these forces, potentially diminishing their willingness and ability to continue to suppress protesters. Iranian reformist media previously reported in September 2022—days after the Mahsa Amini movement began—that then-Law Enforcement Commander Hossein Ashtari discussed security forces’ exhaustion and bandwidth constraints with senior military and intelligence officials.[10] Security forces will likely experience similar exhaustion if the regime continues to mobilize them for a long period of time.
The regime has also suggested that it will sustain its nationwide internet shutdown for at least another week. Internet shutdowns have a detrimental effect on the Iranian economy, and a sustained shutdown will likely exacerbate the poor economic conditions that triggered this protest movement. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-affiliated media reported on January 14 that “relevant institutions” will decide in the “next week or two” whether to grant greater internet access to the population.[11] Iranian officials have frequently acknowledged that internet shutdowns prevent Iranians from being able to conduct business and therefore have a negative impact on the Iranian economy.[12] NetBlocks estimates that internet shutdowns cost Iran over $1.5 million per hour.[13] A resident in Tehran separately told anti-regime media on January 14 that most shops in Tehran remain closed.[14] The closure of businesses would likely compound the negative impact that the internet shutdown is having on the Iranian economy. The current protest movement was initiated by merchants and shopkeepers in Tehran in late December 2025 in response to Iran's deteriorating economic conditions.[15]
Some Iranians are resisting the regime's efforts to contain protests, which further indicates that the regime has not regained control over the security situation. A Europe-based outlet that appears to have sources in Iran reported on January 13 that some Iranians in Shiraz, Fars Province, are fighting back against security forces using knives and machetes.[16] The outlet reported that security forces have struggled to contain crowds by using tear gas and batons and have resorted to using military weapons.[17] The outlet added that communities are “self-organizing” and assisting individuals who are resisting the regime, such as by providing them with safe houses, to sustain protest activity.[18] Resisting security forces that are armed with military weapons is inherently more dangerous than participating in peaceful protests, which demonstrates the commitment of those who are resisting security forces to fight the regime. IRGC-affiliated media reported an increase in security personnel deaths in Fars Province between January 11 and 12, which could corroborate this report of resistance in Shiraz.[19] Shiraz was previously a hotspot for unrest during the 2019 protests.[20] Western and anti-regime media separately reported on January 12 and 14, respectively, that protests continue to take place in Esfahan and eastern Tehran, which highlights how Iranians are continuing to resist security forces in areas outside of Shiraz.[21]
The regime will likely succeed in quelling this resistance if it can retain the loyalty of security forces and prevent those who are resisting security forces from successfully challenging the regime's ability and willingness to sustain its crackdown. The regime has not indicated any intention to stop using lethal force and brutality to quell the current unrest. The most likely way for protesters to be successful would be through the defection of security forces because protesters are unlikely to degrade the regime's ability to sustain its crackdown. Security forces are the basis of the regime's stability, and the loss of security forces’ willingness to suppress unrest could pose an existential threat to the regime. CTP-ISW has not observed reports of defections, although the IRGC Intelligence Organization stated on January 9 that it is “dealing with possible acts of abandonment.”[22] This statement suggests that some Iranian security forces may have already defected or that the regime is very concerned about this possibility.
Iranian regime officials have leaked various protester death counts to Western media. The leak of high protester death counts by some regime officials indicates that these officials may be disaffected by the regime's brutal crackdown on the protests. Two Iranian officials told the New York Times and Reuters on January 13 that 3,000 and 2,000 people have been killed in the protests, respectively.[23] Both officials claimed that “terrorists” caused the deaths, and the official speaking to the New York Times emphasized that the number of deaths included “hundreds” of security officers.[24] These claims suggest that these officials support the regime's violent crackdown and seek to emphasize the role of “terrorists” in the current unrest to justify the crackdown. A source close to the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), two sources in the Iranian presidential office, and several IRGC sources contrastingly told anti-regime media that the protester death count is “at least” 12,000.[25] The leak of such a high protester death count by regime officials suggests that some members of the regime may oppose the regime's brutal crackdown on the protests. These leaks come amid reports that there are divisions among Iranian security forces over how to respond to the protests.[26]
The Iranian regime's concern about cross-border Kurdish militant activity will likely cause the regime to divert resources to address this threat, which would stretch the bandwidth of Iranian security forces that are suppressing protests. The regime is currently attempting to simultaneously defend against Kurdish militant activity and suppress protests in Iran's border provinces, particularly in Ilam, Kermanshah, and West Azerbaijan provinces.[27] Turkey's intelligence service warned the IRGC that armed Kurdish separatist groups were attempting to cross from Iraq into Iran “in recent days,” according to three unspecified sources familiar with the matter speaking to Reuters on January 14.[28] The Reuters report follows several attacks by Kurdish anti-regime groups against Iranian military sites in recent days. The Kurdistan National Guard announced on January 9 that it attacked an IRGC base in Nourabad, Lorestan Province, and injured three IRGC members.[29] The Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK) separately claimed responsibility for an attack on IRGC positions in Kermanshah Province on January 12 that killed an unspecified number of IRGC personnel.[30] The uptick in Kurdish militant activity in western and northwestern Iran in recent days will likely force the regime to divert personnel and resources to confront this issue that it would have otherwise used to quell protests.
The regime's confrontation with Kurdish militant groups in western and northwestern Iran comes as the regime has simultaneously sought to suppress intense protest activity in these areas.[31] The regime has only deployed IRGC Ground Forces units to suppress protests in western and northwestern Iran, which suggests that the intensity of protests in these areas have challenged the Law Enforcement Command and Basij’s ability to contain them.[32] The regime has deployed the 29th Nabi Akram Division to suppress protests in Kermanshah and has threatened to deploy units that operate under the Hamzeh Seyyed ol Shohada Operational Base to suppress protests in northwestern Iran, for example.[33] A Kurdish human rights organization reported on January 9 that security forces in Eslamabad-e Gharb, Kermanshah Province, sought reinforcements but could not receive reinforcements due to a shortage of forces.[34] The bandwidth constraints that security forces are reportedly facing in western Iran are exacerbated by Kurdish militant attacks and the regime may not be able to simultaneously confront both issues effectively. The regime previously not only threatened escalation but also shelled anti-regime Kurdish militant positions in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region (IKR) during the Mahsa Amini movement, but Iranian security forces have notably neither threatened to do so nor done so during the current protest movement.[35] The lack of kinetic action against Kurdish militant groups suggests that security forces may be facing bandwidth constraints as they try to confront the Kurdish militancy issue and protest activity simultaneously.
Iran has continued to coordinate with Turkey and Iraq in an effort to contain cross-border Kurdish militant activity. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi discussed the recent protests in Iran, and likely cross-border Kurdish militant activity, in a phone call with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan on January 14.[36] Iranian SNSC Secretary Ali Larijani separately discussed the implementation of the March 2023 Iran-Iraq security agreement in a phone call with Iraqi National Security Adviser Qassem al Araji on January 14.[37] The March 2023 agreement requires Iraqi authorities to disarm and relocate Kurdish anti-regime groups away from the Iran-Iraq border.[38]
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-january-14-2026/
The Iranian regime's extreme securitization of society and brutal crackdown on protests appear to have suppressed the protest movement for now. The regime's widespread mobilization of security forces is unsustainable, however, which makes it possible that protests could resume. The regime has also not addressed and likely will not address the underlying grievances that triggered this protest movement. The regime has reportedly imposed a curfew to prevent Iranians from going out at night, which is when protests often take place.[1] Two sources in Tehran and a resident in Tabriz, East Azerbaijan Province, told a BBC Persian reporter and anti-regime media, respectively, that the regime has told Iranians not to leave their homes after 8:00 PM.[2] The regime has also deployed security forces to patrol towns and cities across Iran. A resident in Tabriz told anti-regime media on January 15 that security forces are deployed in “all areas” of Tabriz, including in “small neighborhoods far from the city center.”[3] An unspecified foreign diplomat in Iran similarly told the Washington Post on January 14 that security forces are “all over the town.”[4] An individual in Tehran separately told a Paris-based journalist on January 15 that the regime has deployed tanks in Tehran.[5] CTP-ISW has not observed any images or videos to corroborate this report, but the deployment of tanks would likely be meant to intimidate civilians and deter them from protesting.
The regime's pervasive securitization measures and violent crackdown on protests appear to have suppressed protest activity for now. CTP-ISW recorded zero protests on January 15, which marks the second consecutive day that CTP-ISW has not recorded any protest activity in Iran. Various sources in Iran told Western media that protest activity has subsided in recent days in response to the regime's brutal crackdown. An individual who participated in protests in Tehran told the Wall Street Journal on January 15 that clashes between security forces and protesters in Tehran intensified after January 8, but that Tehran “was quiet” by January 12.[6] The protester stated that it was “as if we realized what had happened to us and how many had been killed.”[7] Iranians separately told Reuters on January 14 and 15 that the protests appear to have subsided since January 12.[8] An unspecified foreign diplomat in Iran similarly told the Washington Post on January 14 that the protests have “generally subsided” and that “the fear factor has gained the upper hand.”[9] The regime has used unprecedented brutality to quell the recent protests, and this brutality appears to have deterred some Iranians from continuing to demonstrate against the regime, at least for the time being.[10] A US-based human rights organization reported on January 15 that the regime has killed at least 2,677 individuals and arrested 19,097 individuals since December 28.[11]
The regime's mobilization of security forces to securitize society is unsustainable, which makes it possible that protests could resume when the regime is no longer able to sustain this mobilization. Mobilizing security forces for long periods of time risks burning out and exhausting these forces. Senior law enforcement, military, and intelligence officials previously held discussions about security forces’ “exhaustion” during the Mahsa Amini protest movement.[12] The regime is also taking other measures to securitize society, such as sustaining its nationwide internet shutdown, that impose a significant cost on the regime.[13] The regime's willingness to sustain these securitization measures highlights how the regime still perceives its population as a serious threat. It is unclear, however, how long the regime will be able to sustain these measures.
The regime is also unlikely to address the underlying factors that triggered this protest movement, which makes it possible that protests could resume. The protest movement was initiated by merchants and shopkeepers in Tehran in late December 2025 in response to Iran's deteriorating economic conditions, including the fall of the value of the Iranian rial to a record low of 1,432,000 rials to one US dollar on December 28.[14] The value of the rial has since further depreciated to 1,482,500 rials to one US dollar on January 6 before depreciating slightly to 1,429,500 rials to one US dollar on January 15.[15] The regime has not introduced any economic reforms during the protest movement and is unlikely to fundamentally transform its economic policy in response to the protests. It is conceivable that the regime's brutal crackdown has deterred Iranians from protesting for the time being, but the regime's unwillingness to implement meaningful reforms creates the conditions for further protests. A Tehran resident told the Wall Street Journal on January 15 that he doesn't think that the current “calm” in Tehran “will hold” and that the situation in Iran is “very volatile.”[16] These statements reflect how the regime may have suppressed protest activity for now but that the situation could rapidly change.
Iranian leaders are reportedly moving their US currency reserves abroad, which indicates their lack of faith in Iran's banking system and may indicate concerns about the future of the regime. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on January 14 that Iranian officials have transferred “tens of millions of [US] dollars” out of Iran to unspecified locations.[17] An Israeli news outlet similarly reported on January 14 that Iranian officials have moved around $1.5 billion USD out of Iran in the past 48 hours and that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has moved $328 million USD of that total to Dubai, citing a source familiar with Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) activities.[18] Iranian officials’ transfer of money out of Iran reflects their lack of confidence in Iran's fragile banking system. Regime-affiliated Bank Ayandeh dissolved in October 2025 after suffering nearly $5 billion USD in losses.[19] The Iranian Central Bank folded Bank Ayandeh into regime-controlled Bank Melli and attempted to cover up the economic shock of Bank Ayandeh’s dissolution by printing more money, which in turn worsened the inflation cycle, weakened the value of the rial against the US dollar, and increased prices.[20] Iran's economic crisis requires structural changes in the regime's monetary and fiscal systems that would require unraveling decades of mismanagement.[21] The regime has indicated that it is unwilling to implement fundamental economic reforms and instead employs stopgap measures to keep the Iranian economy afloat. Iranian leaders’ reported money transfers will reduce the amount of hard currency in Iran, which will in turn likely make Iran's banking crisis more acute and inhibit the regime's ability to solve its liquidity crisis. These conditions will likely exacerbate Iranians’ economic grievances that triggered the protest movement in Iran in late 2025.
The Iranian regime is conducting an information operation to portray itself and Iranian security forces as victims of “terrorism,” despite the regime's violent crackdown on protests. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi told Fox News on January 14 that “terrorist elements led from outside” entered the protests, carried out operations similar to the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS), and shot security forces and civilians.[22] Araghchi claimed that “terrorist elements” captured police officers, burned them alive, and beheaded them.[23] Araghchi’s statements signal that the regime still views its own population as a critical security threat and is doubling down on its narrative that protestors are “ISIS” members and “terrorists” to justify its use of violence and lethal force. The regime also uses the narrative that protesters are “terrorists” to treat the public as a hostile force rather than as a population that has legitimate grievances. The regime is also trying to conceal its use of lethal force. Anti-regime sources have reported that Iranian security forces have pressured some families seeking to recover their relatives’ bodies from hospitals or morgues to sign statements attributing the deaths of their relatives to “terrorists” or claiming that their relative was a Basij member.[24] The regime's widespread internet shutdown enables the regime to perpetuate this information operation because the shutdown restricts independent reporting and limits the circulation of evidence about the regime's crackdown on protesters.
Hezbollah may be hesitant to conduct any direct action against Israel or the United States to support Iran that could trigger a full-scale conflict and disrupt the group's reconstitution efforts. Statements by Hezbollah officials indicate that the group is prioritizing domestic issues in Lebanon, including its reconstitution and efforts to prevent disarmament.[25] Hezbollah released a statement on January 13 in which it expressed support for the Iranian regime but notably did not offer any military support to Iran or threaten to retaliate against the United States or Israel if they attack Iran.[26] Hezbollah was previously unwilling and likely unable to defend Iran or retaliate against US or Israeli targets during the Israel-Iran War in June 2025, despite previously serving as one of Iran's primary deterrents against Israel and the United States.[27] Hezbollah has also not responded militarily to any Israeli strikes targeting Hezbollah military infrastructure and personnel in recent months, including Israel's killing of Hezbollah's “de facto chief of staff” and senior commander Haitham Ali Tabatabai in November 2025.[28] Hezbollah's continued hesitancy to act directly against Israel and the United States suggests that the group fears escalation due to its weaker position and the inherent unpredictability of military escalation, which could rapidly spiral out of Hezbollah's control. Any Hezbollah attack directly targeting US or Israeli forces would presumably prompt a US or Israeli response and could threaten the November 2024 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement. The United States plays a key role in upholding the November 2024 ceasefire agreement, particularly through its role in the ceasefire monitoring committee and efforts to reduce tensions between Israel and Lebanon.[29] Hezbollah likely opposes any action that would threaten the ceasefire agreement because such action would undermine Hezbollah's objectives of limiting Israel's presence and operational scope in Lebanon. A US or Israeli response against Hezbollah would also likely disrupt Hezbollah's current efforts to regenerate its forces and replenish its weapons stockpiles.[30]
The US Treasury Department sanctioned “the architects of the Iranian regime's brutal crackdown on peaceful demonstrators” on January 15.[71] The United States sanctioned Iranian Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Secretary Ali Larijani.[72] The SNSC is Iran's highest national security and foreign policy decision-making body and plays a central role in determining how the regime responds to widespread protests, including authorizing and coordinating crackdowns by security forces.[73] The United States also sanctioned the Law Enforcement Command (LEC) and IRGC commanders of Lorestan and Fars provinces.[74] The US Treasury Department stated that security forces in Fars Province have killed numerous peaceful demonstrators since protests began in December 2025.[75] The department added that security forces in Lorestan Province shot multiple civilians and withheld bodies to coerce families to falsely identify their relatives as government “martyrs.”[76] The United States also sanctioned five individuals and 18 entities for laundering proceeds from Iranian petroleum and petrochemical sales to foreign markets through clandestine shadow banking networks.[77]
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-january-15-2026/