Replies

Iran Update, January 15, 2026

The Iranian regime's extreme securitization of society and brutal crackdown on protests appear to have suppressed the protest movement for now. The regime's widespread mobilization of security forces is unsustainable, however, which makes it possible that protests could resume. The regime has also not addressed and likely will not address the underlying grievances that triggered this protest movement. The regime has reportedly imposed a curfew to prevent Iranians from going out at night, which is when protests often take place.[1] Two sources in Tehran and a resident in Tabriz, East Azerbaijan Province, told a BBC Persian reporter and anti-regime media, respectively, that the regime has told Iranians not to leave their homes after 8:00 PM.[2] The regime has also deployed security forces to patrol towns and cities across Iran. A resident in Tabriz told anti-regime media on January 15 that security forces are deployed in “all areas” of Tabriz, including in “small neighborhoods far from the city center.”[3] An unspecified foreign diplomat in Iran similarly told the Washington Post on January 14 that security forces are “all over the town.”[4] An individual in Tehran separately told a Paris-based journalist on January 15 that the regime has deployed tanks in Tehran.[5] CTP-ISW has not observed any images or videos to corroborate this report, but the deployment of tanks would likely be meant to intimidate civilians and deter them from protesting.

The regime's pervasive securitization measures and violent crackdown on protests appear to have suppressed protest activity for now. CTP-ISW recorded zero protests on January 15, which marks the second consecutive day that CTP-ISW has not recorded any protest activity in Iran. Various sources in Iran told Western media that protest activity has subsided in recent days in response to the regime's brutal crackdown. An individual who participated in protests in Tehran told the Wall Street Journal on January 15 that clashes between security forces and protesters in Tehran intensified after January 8, but that Tehran “was quiet” by January 12.[6] The protester stated that it was “as if we realized what had happened to us and how many had been killed.”[7] Iranians separately told Reuters on January 14 and 15 that the protests appear to have subsided since January 12.[8] An unspecified foreign diplomat in Iran similarly told the Washington Post on January 14 that the protests have “generally subsided” and that “the fear factor has gained the upper hand.”[9] The regime has used unprecedented brutality to quell the recent protests, and this brutality appears to have deterred some Iranians from continuing to demonstrate against the regime, at least for the time being.[10] A US-based human rights organization reported on January 15 that the regime has killed at least 2,677 individuals and arrested 19,097 individuals since December 28.[11]

The regime's mobilization of security forces to securitize society is unsustainable, which makes it possible that protests could resume when the regime is no longer able to sustain this mobilization. Mobilizing security forces for long periods of time risks burning out and exhausting these forces. Senior law enforcement, military, and intelligence officials previously held discussions about security forces’ “exhaustion” during the Mahsa Amini protest movement.[12] The regime is also taking other measures to securitize society, such as sustaining its nationwide internet shutdown, that impose a significant cost on the regime.[13] The regime's willingness to sustain these securitization measures highlights how the regime still perceives its population as a serious threat. It is unclear, however, how long the regime will be able to sustain these measures.

The regime is also unlikely to address the underlying factors that triggered this protest movement, which makes it possible that protests could resume. The protest movement was initiated by merchants and shopkeepers in Tehran in late December 2025 in response to Iran's deteriorating economic conditions, including the fall of the value of the Iranian rial to a record low of 1,432,000 rials to one US dollar on December 28.[14] The value of the rial has since further depreciated to 1,482,500 rials to one US dollar on January 6 before depreciating slightly to 1,429,500 rials to one US dollar on January 15.[15] The regime has not introduced any economic reforms during the protest movement and is unlikely to fundamentally transform its economic policy in response to the protests. It is conceivable that the regime's brutal crackdown has deterred Iranians from protesting for the time being, but the regime's unwillingness to implement meaningful reforms creates the conditions for further protests. A Tehran resident told the Wall Street Journal on January 15 that he doesn't think that the current “calm” in Tehran “will hold” and that the situation in Iran is “very volatile.”[16] These statements reflect how the regime may have suppressed protest activity for now but that the situation could rapidly change.

Iranian leaders are reportedly moving their US currency reserves abroad, which indicates their lack of faith in Iran's banking system and may indicate concerns about the future of the regime. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on January 14 that Iranian officials have transferred “tens of millions of [US] dollars” out of Iran to unspecified locations.[17] An Israeli news outlet similarly reported on January 14 that Iranian officials have moved around $1.5 billion USD out of Iran in the past 48 hours and that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has moved $328 million USD of that total to Dubai, citing a source familiar with Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) activities.[18] Iranian officials’ transfer of money out of Iran reflects their lack of confidence in Iran's fragile banking system. Regime-affiliated Bank Ayandeh dissolved in October 2025 after suffering nearly $5 billion USD in losses.[19] The Iranian Central Bank folded Bank Ayandeh into regime-controlled Bank Melli and attempted to cover up the economic shock of Bank Ayandeh’s dissolution by printing more money, which in turn worsened the inflation cycle, weakened the value of the rial against the US dollar, and increased prices.[20] Iran's economic crisis requires structural changes in the regime's monetary and fiscal systems that would require unraveling decades of mismanagement.[21] The regime has indicated that it is unwilling to implement fundamental economic reforms and instead employs stopgap measures to keep the Iranian economy afloat. Iranian leaders’ reported money transfers will reduce the amount of hard currency in Iran, which will in turn likely make Iran's banking crisis more acute and inhibit the regime's ability to solve its liquidity crisis. These conditions will likely exacerbate Iranians’ economic grievances that triggered the protest movement in Iran in late 2025.

The Iranian regime is conducting an information operation to portray itself and Iranian security forces as victims of “terrorism,” despite the regime's violent crackdown on protests. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi told Fox News on January 14 that “terrorist elements led from outside” entered the protests, carried out operations similar to the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS), and shot security forces and civilians.[22] Araghchi claimed that “terrorist elements” captured police officers, burned them alive, and beheaded them.[23] Araghchi’s statements signal that the regime still views its own population as a critical security threat and is doubling down on its narrative that protestors are “ISIS” members and “terrorists” to justify its use of violence and lethal force. The regime also uses the narrative that protesters are “terrorists” to treat the public as a hostile force rather than as a population that has legitimate grievances. The regime is also trying to conceal its use of lethal force. Anti-regime sources have reported that Iranian security forces have pressured some families seeking to recover their relatives’ bodies from hospitals or morgues to sign statements attributing the deaths of their relatives to “terrorists” or claiming that their relative was a Basij member.[24] The regime's widespread internet shutdown enables the regime to perpetuate this information operation because the shutdown restricts independent reporting and limits the circulation of evidence about the regime's crackdown on protesters.

Hezbollah may be hesitant to conduct any direct action against Israel or the United States to support Iran that could trigger a full-scale conflict and disrupt the group's reconstitution efforts. Statements by Hezbollah officials indicate that the group is prioritizing domestic issues in Lebanon, including its reconstitution and efforts to prevent disarmament.[25] Hezbollah released a statement on January 13 in which it expressed support for the Iranian regime but notably did not offer any military support to Iran or threaten to retaliate against the United States or Israel if they attack Iran.[26] Hezbollah was previously unwilling and likely unable to defend Iran or retaliate against US or Israeli targets during the Israel-Iran War in June 2025, despite previously serving as one of Iran's primary deterrents against Israel and the United States.[27] Hezbollah has also not responded militarily to any Israeli strikes targeting Hezbollah military infrastructure and personnel in recent months, including Israel's killing of Hezbollah's “de facto chief of staff” and senior commander Haitham Ali Tabatabai in November 2025.[28] Hezbollah's continued hesitancy to act directly against Israel and the United States suggests that the group fears escalation due to its weaker position and the inherent unpredictability of military escalation, which could rapidly spiral out of Hezbollah's control. Any Hezbollah attack directly targeting US or Israeli forces would presumably prompt a US or Israeli response and could threaten the November 2024 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement. The United States plays a key role in upholding the November 2024 ceasefire agreement, particularly through its role in the ceasefire monitoring committee and efforts to reduce tensions between Israel and Lebanon.[29] Hezbollah likely opposes any action that would threaten the ceasefire agreement because such action would undermine Hezbollah's objectives of limiting Israel's presence and operational scope in Lebanon. A US or Israeli response against Hezbollah would also likely disrupt Hezbollah's current efforts to regenerate its forces and replenish its weapons stockpiles.[30]

The US Treasury Department sanctioned “the architects of the Iranian regime's brutal crackdown on peaceful demonstrators” on January 15.[71] The United States sanctioned Iranian Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Secretary Ali Larijani.[72] The SNSC is Iran's highest national security and foreign policy decision-making body and plays a central role in determining how the regime responds to widespread protests, including authorizing and coordinating crackdowns by security forces.[73] The United States also sanctioned the Law Enforcement Command (LEC) and IRGC commanders of Lorestan and Fars provinces.[74] The US Treasury Department stated that security forces in Fars Province have killed numerous peaceful demonstrators since protests began in December 2025.[75] The department added that security forces in Lorestan Province shot multiple civilians and withheld bodies to coerce families to falsely identify their relatives as government “martyrs.”[76] The United States also sanctioned five individuals and 18 entities for laundering proceeds from Iranian petroleum and petrochemical sales to foreign markets through clandestine shadow banking networks.[77]

https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-january-15-2026/