Iran Update, January 5, 2026
The Iranian regime appears to have shifted toward a harsher and more coercive crackdown after top Iranian officials began differentiating between “rioters” and “protesters” and calling for crackdowns on “rioters.” Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivered a speech on January 4, stating that while protesting is acceptable, it differs “from rioting.”[10] Khamenei added that speaking with “rioters” is useless and noted that “rioters should be put in their place.”[11] Iranian Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei similarly called for the judiciary to act decisively against rioters and said that ”this time [the regime] will show no mercy to the rioters.”[12] Mohseni Ejei also stated on X on January 5 that “this time, we [the regime] will show no mercy to the rioters.”[13] Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Abdol Rahim Mousavi stated during a meeting with Law Enforcement Command (LEC) commanders on January 4 that the LEC will “put the rioters in their place” with public support.[14]
These aggressive statements by top officials come amid growing reports of arrests and casualties linked to the protests. Iranian authorities have arrested nearly 1,000 people, including minors, and killed at least 16 people since the protests started on December 28.[15] Several media outlets reported that Iranian security forces raided a hospital in Ilam City, Ilam Province, to arrest wounded protesters.[16] Security forces also fired tear gas into the hospital compound and entered the wards and rooms to search for injured protesters.[17] Malekshahi, Ilam Province, in western Iran, has been a main focal point of protest activity and regime repression in recent days.[18] Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-affiliated Fars News Agency claimed on January 3 that some unrest in western provinces has taken the form of “organized cells” and ”semi-militant attacks.”[19] The IRGC Hazrat-e Abolfazl Unit in Lorestan Province, western Iran, also issued a statement on January 5 and warned that the “appeasement period” toward “elements of unrest” has ended, citing recent remarks by the Supreme Leader.[20]
Iranian officials appear to have considered a less violent approach to contain the protests, but have since shifted toward a harder and more coercive crackdown after Khamenei’s January 4 speech. Three unspecified Iranian officials told the New York Times on January 4 that the Iranian Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) held an emergency meeting on January 2 to discuss containing the protests with “less violence” in order to avoid fueling public anger.[21] The SNSC convened on January 2, before Khamenei’s speech on January 4. Both Mousavi and Mohseni Ejei are also SNSC members.[22] Mousavi’s and Mohseni Ejei’s statements suggest that the regime has shifted toward a harsher approach to suppress ongoing protests, however.
Iranian officials believe that recent US threats have limited their ability to respond effectively to protests. Unspecified Iranian officials told Reuters on January 5 that US President Donald Trump’s threat to intervene in Iranian protests has complicated Iran’s efforts to quell recent anti-government protests.[23] Trump told reporters on January 4 that the United States will “hit [Iran] hard” if the Iranian regime continues to violently target protesters as it has done in the past.[24] One Iranian official noted that some Iranian officials fear that the United States may target Iran after the January 3 US strikes in Venezuela.[25] Another unspecified Iranian official noted that these external pressures have narrowed the regime’s room to maneuver between public anger and protests, and hardening US demands, leaving Iranian leaders with the perception that there are “few viable options and high risks on every path.”[26]
The IRGC reportedly conducted a missile and air defense exercise on January 4 in multiple cities, including Tehran and Shiraz, which suggests that Iran is increasingly concerned about a renewed conflict with Israel after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Washington.[27] IRGC-affiliated media previously reported on December 22 that the IRGC Aerospace Force launched missiles as part of a missile exercise in unspecified locations in five provinces.[28] Iran reportedly conducted a missile launch in an unspecified location in Ilam Province, near Iran’s western border with Iraq, on December 30.[29] CTP-ISW cannot independently verify these reports. Iran’s reported missile exercises highlight the regime’s concerns about a renewed Iran-Israeli conflict as Iran tries to prepare its air defense systems and missile capabilities. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) established air superiority over western Iran and Tehran by destroying over 40 Iranian air defense systems in the first 24 hours of the June 2025 Iran-Israel War.[30]
An Iranian police officer appeared to express sympathy with some protesters on January 4 by appealing to shared identity. Similar expressions of sympathy could fuel regime fears of security forces failing to contain the protests if these sentiments expand.[58] A video circulated on social media on January 4 showed the officer telling a protester that “I am a businessman myself, a businessman should be in the shop right now… We are all fellow citizens. Let’s respect each other.”[59] The officer’s statement contrasts with the more violent and repressive attitude of security forces elsewhere in the country by appealing to the officer and the protester’s shared identity. It is unclear whether his statements signify broader support for the anti-regime sentiments that characterize the vast majority of current protests.
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-january-5-2026/
The rate of protests across Iran declined slightly on January 5 and 6 compared to the rate of protests between January 2 and 4. CTP-ISW recorded at least 43 protests across Iran between January 5 at 2 PM ET and January 6 at 2 PM ET, and 37 protests between January 4 at 2 PM ET and January 5 at 2 PM ET.[1] The day-by-day breakdown of protests since January 1 illustrates that the protest rate has declined since January 4 at 2 PM ET:[2]
· 81 protests occurred across 23 provinces between January 3 at 2 PM ET and January 4 at 2 PM ET.
· 62 protests occurred across 18 provinces between January 2 at 2 PM ET and January 3 at 2 PM ET.
· 70 protests occurred across 22 provinces between January 1 at 2 PM ET and January 2 at 2 PM ET.
The Iranian weekend — which is on Friday and Saturday — may have driven the higher rate of protests from Friday, January 2, to Sunday, January 4. CTP-ISW observed an increase in protests across Tehran on January 5 and 6, in contrast to the declining national rate on January 5 and January 6. Nineteen protests took place in Tehran between January 5 and 6, while only eight protests occurred in Tehran between January 4 and 5.[3] A medium sized protest occurred in Abadan, Ilam Province, during which Iranian Law Enforcement Command personnel waved at protesters from the rooftop of a nearby police building.[4] Iranian authorities have arrested nearly 1,000 people and killed at least 25 people, including four minors, since the protests started on December 28, according to a Norway-based Kurdish Iranian rights group.[5] CTP-ISW has not observed a demographic or geographic change in protests since its last data cutoff at 2 PM ET on January 5.
The Iranian regime warned on January 6 that it would take unspecified preemptive measures to counter any US and/or Israeli attempts to exploit the ongoing protests across Iran that threaten Iranian regime security, almost certainly to deter US and Israeli activity against Iran.[6] The Defense Council condemned Iran's adversaries’ “intensifying threatening language and interventionist threats” on January 6 in the council's first official statement since its establishment in August 2025.[7] The council is presumably referring to US President Donald Trump's January 2 warnings that the United States could intervene if Iranian security forces shoot or kill Iranian protesters.[8] Iran's highest national security and foreign policy decision-making body, the Supreme National Security Council, established the Defense Council to restructure Iran‘s defense strategy and restore deterrence through “hard power” following the Israel-Iran War.[9] The Defense Council warned on January 6 that “Iran does not consider itself limited to reacting after the action and considers objective signs of threat as part of the security equation,” which implies the possibility of Iranian preemptive action.[10] A preemptive action is taken to prevent an imminent attack or threat from an adversary, whereas a preventive action is taken to avert a future, non-imminent threat.[11] A political analyst close to the Iranian regime, Mostafa Najafi, stated on January 6 that the Defense Council issued the January 6 statement after receiving ”multiple signals regarding the urgency of potential threats.”[12] Najafi assessed that Iran is “highly unlikely” to launch a preemptive strike, however, and that the only way for Iran alter the current position that Iran, the US, and Israel are in is through the “restoration of deterrence.”[13] An unspecified Iranian official separately told Reuters on January 5 that these external pressures have narrowed the regime's room to maneuver between protests and hardening US demands, leaving Iranian leaders with the perception that there are “few viable options and high risks on every path.”[14] Mahdi Mohammadi, an advisor to Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, similarly stated on X on January 5 that the “boundary” between the current state of the unknown and war, as well as “psychological operations and physical operations, and preemption and response, has become extremely faint” and even “intertwined.”[15]
The Iranian regime is likely trying to appease protesters by approving economic reforms, such as subsidies for basic goods. The Iranian Parliament approved the revised second edition of the 2026-2027 budget bill on January 5.[16] The bill mandates that the Iranian government will increase public sector salary raises from 20 percent up to 43 percent, keep the value added tax (VAT) rate at ten percent, and provide $8.8 billion (USD) in subsidized credits for the purchase of basic goods like eggs, oil, and red meat.[17] It is noteworthy that the first edition of the budget bill only increased public sector salaries by 20 percent, which some Iranian officials criticized as being insufficient to keep up with the current 42.2 percent inflation rate in Iran.[18] The updated subsidy will reportedly provide about 80 million Iranians approximately seven dollars a month per person for four months, which is still extremely low.[19] The average Iranian monthly wage is around $200.[20] It is unclear if the approved budget will appease protesters demanding economic reform, as some Iranian social media users mocked the subsidy amount as wholly insufficient.[21]
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-january-6-2026/
Iranian Rial https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd