Iran Update, November 17, 2025
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-affiliated media claimed on November 15 that the IRGC Navy seized the Marshall Islands-flagged Talara tanker because it was attempting to illegally export Iranian cargo. This claim likely seeks to obfuscate the real reason why the IRGC Navy seized the vessel and may be part of an Iranian effort to prevent any retaliation for the seizure. Three IRGC Navy vessels intercepted the Talara on November 14 and diverted it to Iranian territorial waters.[19] IRGC-affiliated Fars News claimed that the Talara was carrying 30,000 tons of Iranian petrochemical products and that the IRGC Navy seized the vessel to “return [Iran’s] property.”[20] The outlet, citing an unspecified source, stated that an Iranian individual or company intended to illegally export the materials.[21] The IRGC Navy stated on November 15 that it seized the Talara to protect Iran’s “national interests and resources” and claimed that the vessel was carrying “unauthorized cargo.” CTP-ISW has not observed any evidence that the vessel was carrying Iranian cargo or that its owner or operator had any links to Iran. The IRGC suggested following the seizure on November 14 that the IRGC Navy had seized the vessel in retaliation for a previous incident, not because the vessel was illicitly transporting Iranian cargo. The Fars News report suggests that Iran may be trying to avoid any retaliation for seizing the tanker by attributing the seizure to a domestic issue rather than foreign tensions. Iran depends on stability in the Strait of Hormuz to export oil, which is the main source of revenue for the regime. Any naval retaliation could impact the stability of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian oil exports.
Senior Iranian military officials have continued to emphasize the importance of Iran’s missile program for its national security, which suggests that Iran will continue to invest in the development of its missile program. IRGC Spokesperson Brigadier General Ali Mohammad Naeini stated in an interview on November 16 that Iran’s missile program both deters and defeats Iranian adversaries.[37] Naeini’s statement echoes other Iranian officials’ comments about Iran’s missile program since the Israel-Iran War in June 2025.[38] Former IRGC Commander Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari argued on October 25 that Iran’s missile program is Iran’s main form of deterrence and that Iran deliberately prioritized developing its missile and drone capabilities over its air and ground forces to counter Israel and the United States’ superior capabilities.[39] Iranian Deputy Vice President for Strategic Affairs Ali Abdullah Khani similarly stated on October 20 that Iran must improve its missile capabilities and adopt an approach to confront “hybrid warfare.”[40] Naeini also identified “hybrid warfare” as a strategy used by Israel and the United States in his interview on November 16.[41] The Iranian regime defines “hybrid warfare” as the use of all domains of power, including information, electronic, cultural, social, and military operations, by hostile actors to destabilize Iran.[42]
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-november-17-2025/
Some elements of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) are reportedly pressuring Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to accelerate the reconstruction of Iran's nuclear program and withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).[18] An unspecified senior “energy source” who works closely with Iran's Oil Ministry told UK-based outlet Oil Price on November 17 that the IRGC is pressuring Khamenei to expedite the reconstruction of nuclear facilities that were damaged during the Israel-Iran War.[19] The source added that some elements of the IRGC are pressuring Khamenei to withdraw from the NPT.[20] Iran must implement a Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as an NPT member.[21] Safeguards agreements are “designed to enable the IAEA to detect the diversion of nuclear material from peaceful purposes to nuclear weapons uses, as well as to detect undeclared nuclear activities and material.”[22] CTP-ISW cannot verify the Oil Price report. Unspecified IRGC officials previously urged Khamenei before the Israel-Iran War to approve the development of a nuclear weapon to confront “existential threats” from the West.[23] An unspecified European Union (EU) source also told Oil Price that unanswered questions about recent Iranian activities at the Mount Kolang Gaz La facility in Esfahan Province have set Iran and the West “on a collision course.”[24] Recent Iranian construction at the facility has fueled concerns that the site could serve not only as a centrifuge assembly plant, as Iran announced in 2020, but also as a covert enrichment facility or secure storage facility for highly enriched uranium.[25]
Iran also reportedly intends to allocate a large portion of its military budget to the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and multi-warhead delivery systems, according to the EU source.[26] The source stated that Iran will increase its military budget by over 200 percent in the coming year and accelerate the development of ICBMs with multi-warhead delivery systems and ranges of up to 10,000 kilometers. CTP-ISW cannot verify these claims. Multi-warhead delivery systems likely refer to multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs).[27] Iran used ballistic missiles with cluster munition warheads, which disperse unguided submunitions over a wide area, during the Israel-Iran War. Iran does not currently possess MIRV technology, however. Ballistic missiles with MIRVs are more difficult to defend against than regular ballistic missiles, so Iran may seek to develop MIRV technology to bypass enemy air defenses more effectively.[28]
Iran seeks to deepen its economic cooperation with Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member countries to mitigate the effects of international sanctions. The SCO, which Iran joined in 2023, is a multilateral forum that was established by Eurasian countries, including the People's Republic of China and Russia, to coordinate on political, military, and economic issues.[29] Iran views multilateral institutions such as the SCO as necessary to counter and undermine the US-led international order. SCO officials signed a cooperation document on November 17 at the SCO’s 24th Heads of Government summit in Moscow covering a wide range of economic issues, including the use of national currencies for trade, investments in green energy technology and transportation, and increased economic diplomacy.[30] Iranian First Vice President Mohmmad Reza Aref met with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin on November 17 on the sidelines of the summit to discuss expanding economic ties, including the development of joint railway projects.[31] Aref separately met with Belarusian Prime Minister Alexander Turchin on November 18 and emphasized the importance of bilateral investment and production initiatives to “meet mutual needs.”[32] Aref and other participating officials signed a joint statement condemning “coercive” economic sanctions, stating that they hinder international cooperation.[33] Iran, Russia, and Belarus, among other SCO member states, are heavily sanctioned by the United States and its allies.[34]
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-november-18-2025/