Iran Update, September 10, 2025
The Wall Street Journal reported on September 10 that the Iran-International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) agreement is unlikely to persuade the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) to stop pursuing the reimposition of UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions on Iran because the agreement does not include a timeline for inspections or a deadline for Iran to clarify the status of its enriched uranium stockpile.[1] The E3 triggered the snapback mechanism on August 28, which will automatically reimpose UNSC sanctions on Iran on September 27 if the UNSC does not extend sanctions relief for Iran or postpone the snapback mechanism’s expiration date.[2] Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi and IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi signed an agreement in Cairo on September 9 regarding Iranian cooperation with the IAEA.[3] The E3 stated in response to the agreement that “it is not enough for Iran to make promises for tomorrow.”[4] UK Ambassador to the UN Corinne Kitsell stated on September 10 that the E3 “must be prepared to hold Iran to account” if Iran does not grant full access to its nuclear sites to the IAEA.[5] Grossi stated that the details of the agreement will not be made public due to its “technical and operational” nature and that the agreement “will open the way for the respective inspections and access.”[6] Araghchi stated that the agreement will be considered “void” if the UNSC reimposes sanctions on Iran.[7] Araghchi also stated that Iran will not allow inspectors to access Iranian nuclear facilities besides the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant for fuel replacement.[8]
The casualties from Israel’s strikes targeting senior Hamas leaders in Doha, Qatar, on September 9 remain unclear.[9] The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted several airstrikes targeting senior Hamas leaders who were meeting to discuss ongoing ceasefire negotiations.[10] Saudi media reported that the Israeli strikes killed at least three Hamas leaders, including Hamas’ Gaza Strip leader Khalil al Hayya, West Bank leader Zaher Jabarin, and Leadership Council member Khaled Meshaal.[11] An Israeli Army Radio journalist reported on September 9 that the Israeli security establishment felt “optimistic” about the strikes’ success and estimated that it would take several hours to confirm which Hamas officials were killed in the strikes.[12] A senior Israeli official told the Guardian on September 10 that Israel’s optimism about the strikes’ success was “waning.”[13] Two Israeli defense and intelligence sources similarly told Israeli media that they felt pessimistic about whether the strikes killed “most or even all” of the intended targets.[14] Israel reportedly informed the United States that the likelihood of the strikes’ success has “decreased significantly.”[15] Hamas has denied that the Israeli strikes killed any of its negotiating team, which includes Hayya, Jabarin, and Meshaal.[16] Hamas has consistently lied about the deaths of senior commanders and waited weeks or even months to confirm the deaths of commanders who were killed by Israel in the Gaza Strip, however. There have been no official Israeli statements about which Hamas officials were killed in the strikes at the time of this writing.
Qatar and several regional countries have strongly criticized Israel’s recent strikes in Doha.[17] Qatar condemned Israel’s violation of its sovereignty and stated that it reserves the right to respond to the strikes and will “act firmly” against any “reckless breach” that threatens Qatari security.[18] Qatar also announced that it formed a legal team to take action against Israel in response to the strikes.[19] Several Gulf and regional countries also strongly condemned the Israeli strikes and expressed support for Qatar on September 9.[20] The UAE called the Israeli strikes a “reckless attack” and “flagrant violation” of international law, while Iran and Saudi Arabia characterized the strikes as a “criminal act.”[21] The Turkish Foreign Ministry stated that the Israeli strikes indicate that Israel does not seek a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.[22] Regional leaders are converging in Doha to meet with Qatari leaders and show support for Qatar following the strikes.[23] UAE President Mohammad bin Zayed al Nahyan and Jordanian Crown Prince Hussein bin Abdullah arrived in Qatar on September 10, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salam is expected to arrive in Qatar on September 11.[24]
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-september-10-2025/
Iran Update, September 11, 2025
The Iraqi Independence Gathering in Najaf, which is a political advocacy group, launched a campaign to pressure the Iraqi government to prevent parties tied to armed factions from running in the November 2025 parliamentary elections. The Iraqi Independence Gathering submitted a complaint to the Department of Political Parties and Organizations under the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC).[13] IHEC was established in 2019 as an “independent and impartial body” responsible for developing election rules and regulations, approving candidates running for elections, adjudicating electoral complaints and appeals, and approving election results.[14] The Iraqi Independence Gathering cited Article 9 of the Iraqi constitution in its complaints. Article 9 bars the formation of militias and excludes all Iraqi security forces from participating in or being affiliated with any political activity.[15] The organization also claimed that parties violated Articles 8 and 47 of the 2015 Political Parties Law Number 36.[16] Articles 8 and 47 of the 2015 Political Parties Law prohibit political parties from having any ties to armed factions and state that violators will face a prison sentence.[17]
The Iraqi Independence Gathering also filed a lawsuit with the Iraqi Federal Supreme Court against Parliament to challenge the current Elections Act.[18] The organization claimed that the Elections Act contained articles that contradicted the Iraqi constitution. The Iraqi Independence Gathering claimed the following political parties violated Iraqi federal and election laws:[19]
Muntasirun Bloc: led by Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada head Safaa Salem Hamid al Maliki;
Islamic Movement of Iraq (Harakat al Iraq al Islamiyah): led by Imam Ali Brigades Secretary General Shibl Mohsen Ubaid al Zaidi;
Services Alliance (Tahaluf Hadmat): led by Imam Ali Brigades Deputy Secretary General Ali Zaidan Hamid al Gharawi;
Conservative Party: led by Popular Mobilization Forces member Wael Asim Hussein al Shammari;
Jihad and Construction Party (Harakat al Jihad al Bina): led by Saraya al Jihad founder Jawad Rahim Qasim al Saadi;
National Elite Alliance (Tahaluf al Safwat al Watani): led by Ansar Allah al Awfiya militia commander Haidar Mazhar Malak al Gharawi;
National Plateau Alliance (Tahaluf al Hadba al Watani): led by Kataib Sayyida al Shudada Secretary General Hashim Fityan Rahm (Abu Alaa al Walai);
Babylon Party: led by Raban Salem Sadiq al Kildani. The Babylon Party is the political wing of the 50th PMF Brigade (also known as the Babylon Brigade).
Badr Organization: led by Hadi al Ameri. Ameri also leads the Badr Organization’s military wing.[20]
Sadiqoun Movement: led by Qais al Khazali. Khazali also leads the armed wing of the Sadiqoun Movement, Asaib Ahl al Haq.[21]
The Iraqi Independence Gathering’s complaint to IHEC and lawsuit with the Federal Supreme Court are unlikely to achieve meaningful results. The parties listed by the Iraqi Independence Gathering have also co-opted many of Iraq’s adjudicating bodies and can protect members from prosecution. Parliament appointed a Shia Coordination Framework-approved judge, Abbas al Fatlawi, as the head of IHEC’s Electoral Administration in April 2023, in a move that was reportedly part of a broader effort to fill the IHEC Board of Commissioners with judges loyal to the Shia Coordination Framework.[22] The president of Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court, Faiq Zaidan, has similarly been accused of cooperating with Iranian-backed Iraqi Shia actors to pass favorable court decisions.[23]
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-september-11-2025/