Iran Update, September 11, 2025
The Iraqi Independence Gathering in Najaf, which is a political advocacy group, launched a campaign to pressure the Iraqi government to prevent parties tied to armed factions from running in the November 2025 parliamentary elections. The Iraqi Independence Gathering submitted a complaint to the Department of Political Parties and Organizations under the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC).[13] IHEC was established in 2019 as an “independent and impartial body” responsible for developing election rules and regulations, approving candidates running for elections, adjudicating electoral complaints and appeals, and approving election results.[14] The Iraqi Independence Gathering cited Article 9 of the Iraqi constitution in its complaints. Article 9 bars the formation of militias and excludes all Iraqi security forces from participating in or being affiliated with any political activity.[15] The organization also claimed that parties violated Articles 8 and 47 of the 2015 Political Parties Law Number 36.[16] Articles 8 and 47 of the 2015 Political Parties Law prohibit political parties from having any ties to armed factions and state that violators will face a prison sentence.[17]
The Iraqi Independence Gathering also filed a lawsuit with the Iraqi Federal Supreme Court against Parliament to challenge the current Elections Act.[18] The organization claimed that the Elections Act contained articles that contradicted the Iraqi constitution. The Iraqi Independence Gathering claimed the following political parties violated Iraqi federal and election laws:[19]
Muntasirun Bloc: led by Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada head Safaa Salem Hamid al Maliki;
Islamic Movement of Iraq (Harakat al Iraq al Islamiyah): led by Imam Ali Brigades Secretary General Shibl Mohsen Ubaid al Zaidi;
Services Alliance (Tahaluf Hadmat): led by Imam Ali Brigades Deputy Secretary General Ali Zaidan Hamid al Gharawi;
Conservative Party: led by Popular Mobilization Forces member Wael Asim Hussein al Shammari;
Jihad and Construction Party (Harakat al Jihad al Bina): led by Saraya al Jihad founder Jawad Rahim Qasim al Saadi;
National Elite Alliance (Tahaluf al Safwat al Watani): led by Ansar Allah al Awfiya militia commander Haidar Mazhar Malak al Gharawi;
National Plateau Alliance (Tahaluf al Hadba al Watani): led by Kataib Sayyida al Shudada Secretary General Hashim Fityan Rahm (Abu Alaa al Walai);
Babylon Party: led by Raban Salem Sadiq al Kildani. The Babylon Party is the political wing of the 50th PMF Brigade (also known as the Babylon Brigade).
Badr Organization: led by Hadi al Ameri. Ameri also leads the Badr Organization’s military wing.[20]
Sadiqoun Movement: led by Qais al Khazali. Khazali also leads the armed wing of the Sadiqoun Movement, Asaib Ahl al Haq.[21]
The Iraqi Independence Gathering’s complaint to IHEC and lawsuit with the Federal Supreme Court are unlikely to achieve meaningful results. The parties listed by the Iraqi Independence Gathering have also co-opted many of Iraq’s adjudicating bodies and can protect members from prosecution. Parliament appointed a Shia Coordination Framework-approved judge, Abbas al Fatlawi, as the head of IHEC’s Electoral Administration in April 2023, in a move that was reportedly part of a broader effort to fill the IHEC Board of Commissioners with judges loyal to the Shia Coordination Framework.[22] The president of Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court, Faiq Zaidan, has similarly been accused of cooperating with Iranian-backed Iraqi Shia actors to pass favorable court decisions.[23]
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-september-11-2025/
Iranian officials are using Israel's September 9 strike in Doha, Qatar, to frame the United States as an unreliable security guarantor for Gulf states in an effort to break the nascent anti-Iran coalition in the region. Israel's September 9 airstrike targeting senior Hamas leaders in Doha, Qatar, caused the Gulf states to condemn Israeli actions.[1] Iran has exploited these frustrations among Gulf states by questioning the reliability of US partnerships. Iranian officials have made statements and held a series of meetings and phone calls with Gulf and Arab states since September 9, in which they condemned the Israeli airstrike as a “violation of international law.”[2] Iranian officials have misrepresented the degree of US knowledge of the Israeli strikes and have suggested that the US-brokered agreements are incapable of defending Arab states from Israeli attacks.[3] The United States did not have adequate foreknowledge of the Israeli strike to discourage the Israelis from conducting the strike. Iranian officials have painted the Israeli strike as a direct threat to the security of Gulf countries and called for the international community to hold Israel accountable for its “criminal act.”[4] Iran, of course, has repeatedly targeted Gulf states with much less precision and to much greater effect. Iran fired missiles and drones at the Saudi oil terminal in Dhafran in 2019, for example, which forced Saudi Arabia to dip into its oil reserves to support exports.[5] Tehran interim Friday prayer leader Ahmad Khatami addressed the governments of Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia — all countries that have security partnerships with the United States — during Friday prayers on September 12 and warned that Israel would strike their country next if it was allowed to grow in power.[6]
This Iranian effort to dissuade Gulf states from cooperating with the United States or Israel is extremely unlikely to succeed, but Iran has presumably designed a gradual coalition-breaking effort to undermine US-led efforts to forge an anti-Iran coalition in the Middle East. The US-led effort to forge this coalition has paid dividends for the United States in the Middle East already. Many Gulf and other Arab states contributed to Israel‘s defense against Iranian missile and drone attacks in April and October 2024, for example. This defense decreased the likelihood of further escalation between Iran and Israel by helping prevent any significant damage to Israel. One Iranian diplomatic push is extremely unlikely to undo the progress the United States has made towards forging an anti-Iran coalition, especially after the Iranian attack on Al Udeid Airbase in Qatar in June 2025. The recent Iranian rhetoric degrading US diplomatic and security partnerships is part of a long-running line of effort in a long-standing Iranian campaign to weaken the United States and secure Iran's role as a regional hegemon. This line of effort has had no success to date.
Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al Thani called for an emergency Arab-Islamic summit in Doha on September 14 and 15.[7] An unspecified source cited by Lebanese media on September 12 claimed that the Qatari government is prepared to launch a ”comprehensive diplomatic campaign” against Israel through the Gulf Cooperation Council, Arab League, Organization of Islamic Cooperation, the United Nations Security Council, and “even within Washington itself and the halls of Congress.”[8] Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will attend the emergency Arab-Islamic summit on September 14 and 15 in Doha, Qatar.[9]
The People's Republic of China (PRC) is similarly trying to sow doubt about the United States’ role in the region. These narratives, although not coordinated with Iran, support Iranian objectives to decrease regional support for the United States. The PRC's Foreign Ministry stated on September 10 that the Israeli strikes were linked to the US bias towards Israel, implying that the United States ignored the Gulf states’ security concerns.[10] Chinese state-owned media widely covered the Israeli strike in Doha and accused the United States of foreknowledge of the strikes. Chinese state media Xinhua reported on September 10 that the Israeli airstrikes in Doha were “a clear escalation” involving a sovereign Arab country that has no direct military hostilities with Israel.[11] State broadcaster China Central Television (CCTV) reported on September 11 that it would have been “very difficult” for Israel to have launched its airstrikes on Doha without US approval.[12] A Chinese scholar similarly told CCTV on September 11 that the United States did not attempt to stop the Israeli strikes after receiving advanced warning from Israel about the strikes.[13] The PRC has previously tried to exploit unpopular US policies among Arab states to undermine the US role as the primary regional partner.[14]
The PRC's statements incorrectly characterize the United States’ role in Israel's recent strikes in Doha and attempt to demonstrate that the United States is an unreliable security partner for Gulf states. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office indicated that Israel unilaterally conducted its airstrikes in Doha.[15] US officials stated that Israel's warning gave the United States no time to warn Qatar.[16] The United States was only informed while Israeli jets were in the air, giving the United States only enough time to briefly inform Qatar and no time to force Israel to call off the strike.
Members of the Iranian regime are trying to prepare for supreme leader succession by taking steps to secure their influence within the regime after the eventual passing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. UK-based media outlet “IranWire” reported on September 12 that, according to a senior Iranian diplomat, Iranian Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Secretary Ali Larijani and former First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber are the regime stalwarts most in contact with Khamenei and are positioning themselves for more influence in the regime in the event of a succession.[17] The report comes after elements within the Iranian regime used Khamenei‘s absence during the Israel-Iran War to attempt to exert more influence over regime policy.[18] The diplomat stated that Larijani is actively engaging with reformists, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commanders, and grand ayatollahs to prepare the country diplomatically, economically, and militarily for the transition period.[19] Larijani has been a key figure within the Iranian policy space over the past two decades and supported major initiatives, including the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, also known as the 2015 nuclear deal).[20] Larijani has taken on a prominent role in shaping Iranian foreign policy as a pragmatic hardliner since the June 2025 Israel-Iran War. The diplomat added that Mokhber is actively trying to undermine Larijani’s efforts by exploiting his “controversial” history with Iran's media and security apparatus.[21] Mokhber previously served as the head of the Execution of Imam Khomeini's Order (EIKO)—a parastatal organization directly controlled by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—between 2007 and 2021.[22]
This political maneuvering is occurring as Khamenei continues to be absent from important political decisions. The IranWire report stated that senior Iranian officials are growing increasingly concerned about the health of Khamenei following a reduction in communication from his office since the beginning of the Israel-Iran War.[23] The senior Iranian diplomat stated that Khamenei’s office did not brief Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi before this year's UN General Assembly as it normally does, and that the Foreign Affairs Ministry is operating “almost independently.”[24] Khamenei’s personal absence could be explained by increased security measures, though it is unclear why his office could not communicate with other elements of the Iranian government. Khamenei did not make any public appearances during the Israel-Iran War except for three pre-recorded televised speeches.[25] Khamenei gave 12 speeches in the 80-day period before the Israel-Iran War (March 24-June 12), while he has only given four speeches in the 80-day period after the war (June 24-September 12).[26] Western media reported on June 22 that a group of Iranian businessmen, political and military figures, and relatives of high-ranking clerics had begun planning how to lead Iran without Khamenei.[27]
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-september-12-2025/