Iran Update, September 9, 2025
The Israeli Air Force (IAF) conducted several airstrikes targeting senior Hamas leaders in Doha, Qatar, on September 9.[1] Several IAF fighter jets dropped at least 10 munitionson a residential building in northern Doha.[2] Several Hamas Political Bureau members resided at the targeted building, according to the Qatari Foreign Affairs Ministry.[3] Senior Hamas officials and ceasefire negotiators, including Hamas Shura Council and Leadership Council head Mohammad Darwish and senior Hamas official and negotiator Nizar Awadallah, were reportedly meeting at the residence to review a recent US ceasefire proposal at the time of the strikes.[4] The Israeli strikes reportedly killed several Hamas officials, including:
· Khalil al Hayya: Hayya was the leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the leader of Hamas’ ceasefire negotiation team, and a member of Hamas’ Leadership Council.[5]
· Zaher Jabarin: Jabarin was the leader of Hamas in the West Bank, a member of Hamas’ Leadership Council, and a member of Hamas’ ceasefire negotiation team.[6]
· Khaled Meshaal: Meshaal was a member of Hamas’ Leadership Council.[7]
Hamas confirmed that the Israeli strikes killed five Hamas members, including the director of Hayya’s office, Jihad Labad (Abu Bilal), and Hayya’s son, Hammam al Hayya.[8] Hamas claimed that its negotiating team survived the Israeli strikes but did not specify if any officials sustained injuries.[9]
Three US officials told Axios that the US military detected Israeli fighter jets flying toward the Persian Gulf on September 9 and sought clarification from Israel.[10] The officials stated that “missiles were already in the air” by the time that Israel provided clarification to the United States. Axios reported that the Israeli strikes “infuriated” some of US President Donald Trump’s senior advisers because the US government was waiting for Hamas’ response to a recent US ceasefire proposal. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that Israel’s strikes in Qatar, which is a major non-NATO ally of the United States, do “not advance Israel’s or America’s goals,” but added that eliminating Hamas is “a worthy goal.”[11] Qatar condemned the strikes and stated that it will not tolerate “reckless Israeli behavior.”[12] A Qatari Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson denied claims that the United States warned Qatar about the Israeli strikes in advance.[13] Qatar has reportedly suspended its role as a mediator between Israel and Hamas following the strikes.[14]
Iran appears to be trying to fulfill the E3’s (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) demands to postpone the expiration of the snapback mechanism, likely to try to avoid the reimposition of UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions. The E3 triggered the snapback mechanism on August 28.[15] The snapback process lasts 30 days, which means that UNSC sanctions will automatically be reimposed on Iran on September 27 if the UNSC does not extend sanctions relief for Iran. South Korea, which is the current president of the UNSC, finalized a UNSC resolution on September 8 to extend sanctions relief for Iran.[16] South Korea was required to table such a resolution 10 days after the E3 triggered the snapback mechanism if no other UNSC member did so. Any permanent UNSC member (the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China, and Russia) can veto the South Korean resolution. The E3 previously outlined three conditions to extend the expiration date of the snapback mechanism, which is currently October 18, 2025. The three conditions are that Iran must account for its highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile, fully cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) regarding inspections and verification of its nuclear sites, and resume negotiations with the United States. Iran rejected these conditions prior to August 28 but has since made progress toward fulfilling these conditions.
Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi and IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi signed an agreement in Cairo on September 9 regarding Iranian cooperation with the IAEA.[17] Some reports have indicated that the Iran-IAEA agreement would involve Iran submitting a report on the status of its HEU to the IAEA in one month, after which the IAEA and Iran would negotiate how the IAEA could verify the Iranian report. Neither Iran nor the IAEA has confirmed the details of the agreement at the time of this writing, however.[18] Araghchi stated after the signing of the agreement that “any hostile action against Iran,” including the reimposition of UNSC sanctions, would make the Iran-IAEA agreement “null and void.”[19] Araghchi similarly proposed an “interim deal” that would provide “more clarity” about the status of Iran’s HEU stockpile during a meeting with European Union Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas in Qatar on September 5.[20]
Iran has also indicated a greater willingness to negotiate with the United States on Iran’s nuclear program. Iranian hardline outlet Farhikhtegan, which is affiliated with Supreme Leader International Affairs Adviser Ali Akbar Velayati, reported on September 8 that the regime has decided to resume negotiations with the United States under the condition that the UNSC does not reimpose sanctions on Iran during negotiations.[21] Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei reportedly asked Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to seek Qatar’s help in mediating with the United States and the E3 to prevent the reimposition of UNSC sanctions.[22] UK-based outlet Amwaj Media reported on September 8 that Oman is “re-engaging” with Iran about “possible renewed dialogue.”[23] Araghchi held a phone call with his Omani counterpart on September 8.[24] Oman mediated the five rounds of talks between the United States and Iran before the Israel-Iran War.[25]
US and Israeli airstrikes during the Israel-Iran War severely degraded Iran’s ability to build a nuclear weapon. The Institute for Science and International Security assessed on September 8 that Iran no longer has a clear path to produce weapons-grade uranium (uranium enriched up to 90 percent) because US and Israeli strikes destroyed Iran’s gas centrifuge enrichment program.[26] The Institute assessed that US and Israeli strikes destroyed or rendered inoperable all of Iran’s 20,000 centrifuges that it had installed across its three declared enrichment facilities.[27] The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently reported that Iran possessed 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 60 percent before the start of the Israel-Iran War on June 12.[28] Iran would need to further enrich its 60 percent enriched uranium to be able to build a nuclear weapon. US and Israeli strikes also targeted Iran’s centrifuge production and research and development facilities, which will almost certainly also hinder Iran’s ability to enrich uranium in the near future.[29]
The Institute also published information about Iran’s fourth enrichment facility and reported that the facility does not appear to be operational after the war. Iran announced on June 12 that it would launch a newly built enrichment facility in response to a non-compliance resolution that the IAEA Board of Governors had passed earlier that day.[30] Atomic Energy Organization of Iran head Mohammad Eslami stated that Iran would operationalize the facility by installing and activating centrifuges there.[31] Israel launched its first airstrikes targeting Iran on June 12, which suggests that Iran never installed centrifuges at the site. The Institute assessed that the new facility, known as the Esfahan Fuel Enrichment Plant, is located within the tunnel complex at the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center.[32] The Institute reported that US strikes damaged the site and assessed that the site is not currently operational.[33]
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-september-9-2025/
Iran Update, September 10, 2025
The Wall Street Journal reported on September 10 that the Iran-International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) agreement is unlikely to persuade the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) to stop pursuing the reimposition of UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions on Iran because the agreement does not include a timeline for inspections or a deadline for Iran to clarify the status of its enriched uranium stockpile.[1] The E3 triggered the snapback mechanism on August 28, which will automatically reimpose UNSC sanctions on Iran on September 27 if the UNSC does not extend sanctions relief for Iran or postpone the snapback mechanism’s expiration date.[2] Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi and IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi signed an agreement in Cairo on September 9 regarding Iranian cooperation with the IAEA.[3] The E3 stated in response to the agreement that “it is not enough for Iran to make promises for tomorrow.”[4] UK Ambassador to the UN Corinne Kitsell stated on September 10 that the E3 “must be prepared to hold Iran to account” if Iran does not grant full access to its nuclear sites to the IAEA.[5] Grossi stated that the details of the agreement will not be made public due to its “technical and operational” nature and that the agreement “will open the way for the respective inspections and access.”[6] Araghchi stated that the agreement will be considered “void” if the UNSC reimposes sanctions on Iran.[7] Araghchi also stated that Iran will not allow inspectors to access Iranian nuclear facilities besides the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant for fuel replacement.[8]
The casualties from Israel’s strikes targeting senior Hamas leaders in Doha, Qatar, on September 9 remain unclear.[9] The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted several airstrikes targeting senior Hamas leaders who were meeting to discuss ongoing ceasefire negotiations.[10] Saudi media reported that the Israeli strikes killed at least three Hamas leaders, including Hamas’ Gaza Strip leader Khalil al Hayya, West Bank leader Zaher Jabarin, and Leadership Council member Khaled Meshaal.[11] An Israeli Army Radio journalist reported on September 9 that the Israeli security establishment felt “optimistic” about the strikes’ success and estimated that it would take several hours to confirm which Hamas officials were killed in the strikes.[12] A senior Israeli official told the Guardian on September 10 that Israel’s optimism about the strikes’ success was “waning.”[13] Two Israeli defense and intelligence sources similarly told Israeli media that they felt pessimistic about whether the strikes killed “most or even all” of the intended targets.[14] Israel reportedly informed the United States that the likelihood of the strikes’ success has “decreased significantly.”[15] Hamas has denied that the Israeli strikes killed any of its negotiating team, which includes Hayya, Jabarin, and Meshaal.[16] Hamas has consistently lied about the deaths of senior commanders and waited weeks or even months to confirm the deaths of commanders who were killed by Israel in the Gaza Strip, however. There have been no official Israeli statements about which Hamas officials were killed in the strikes at the time of this writing.
Qatar and several regional countries have strongly criticized Israel’s recent strikes in Doha.[17] Qatar condemned Israel’s violation of its sovereignty and stated that it reserves the right to respond to the strikes and will “act firmly” against any “reckless breach” that threatens Qatari security.[18] Qatar also announced that it formed a legal team to take action against Israel in response to the strikes.[19] Several Gulf and regional countries also strongly condemned the Israeli strikes and expressed support for Qatar on September 9.[20] The UAE called the Israeli strikes a “reckless attack” and “flagrant violation” of international law, while Iran and Saudi Arabia characterized the strikes as a “criminal act.”[21] The Turkish Foreign Ministry stated that the Israeli strikes indicate that Israel does not seek a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.[22] Regional leaders are converging in Doha to meet with Qatari leaders and show support for Qatar following the strikes.[23] UAE President Mohammad bin Zayed al Nahyan and Jordanian Crown Prince Hussein bin Abdullah arrived in Qatar on September 10, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salam is expected to arrive in Qatar on September 11.[24]
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-september-10-2025/