Iran Update, July 8, 2025
Iran cannot access certain key nuclear facilities, according to the Iranian president. This suggests that leaked Iranian signals intercepts about limited damage at the nuclear facilities were inaccurate. [10]Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told Tucker Carlson that US airstrikes on June 22 damaged Fordow, Natanz, or Esfahan nuclear sites, but Iran cannot access the facilities to accurately assess the damage in an interview aired on July 7.[11] Pezeshkian did not draw differences in levels of access between the different facilities. Pezeshkian’s statement demonstrates that it would have been almost impossible for Iranian officials to have accurate knowledge within days of the strikes about the extent of damage that the facilities suffered. The statement also suggests that Iran’s understanding of the exact damage within the facilities remains limited.
Israeli officials suggested that the United States would support further Israeli airstrikes against Iran if Iran attempts to either rebuild its nuclear program or move highly enriched uranium from previously targeted nuclear sites.[12] Unspecified US officials reportedly left Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer with the ”impression” that the United States would support further Israeli airstrikes on Iran under certain conditions after Dermer’s meetings in Washington last week. These conditions include Iranian efforts to rebuild its nuclear program or to move highly enriched uranium from Fordow, Natanz, or Esfahan, according to two sources familiar with the matter speaking to Axios on July 7.[13] US airstrikes on these facilities on June 22 “sealed off” the enriched uranium inside the three damaged nuclear sites but did not destroy all the nuclear material or infrastructure, according to unspecified US and Israeli officials speaking to Axios on July 7.[14] The enrichment level of the nuclear material at these sites and whether Iran moved some of the enriched material prior to the strikes is unclear.
The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) harassed a German aircraft supporting the EU mission to defend international shipping in the Red Sea, which could decrease the ability of US partners to defend the freedom of navigation in the Red Sea against the Houthis. The German Foreign Affairs Ministry said on July 8 that a People’s Republic of China (PRC) PLAN ship used a laser to harass a German surveillance aircraft operating in the Red Sea in early July.[15] The German Foreign Affairs Ministry said that the PLAN ship lasered the civilian-contracted German aircraft “without any reason” or prior contact while the aircraft had been operating under the European Union (EU)’s mission to protect merchant vessels from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.[16] The Ministry added that the aircraft and its crew, which included German army personnel, had resumed operations since the incident. The German aircraft is based in Djibouti, where the PLA has a military base.[17] The PLAN has previously used lasers to harass US aircraft operating from Djibouti, as well.[18] The United States and Australia have previously accused the PLAN of using lasers against US and Australian aircraft in the Pacific Ocean.[19] The PRC does not actively support the Houthis in the Red Sea, but PRC harassment of vessels and assets supporting the defense of international shipping can pull these assets off station and make them unable to fulfill their mission. This result, in turn, would mean that the net effect of PRC behavior supports Houthi operations even if the PRC does not intend to do so.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-8-2025
Iran Update, July 9, 2025
French Director General of External Security Nicolas Lerner told French media on July 8 that Iran’s nuclear program is very seriously damaged and its weaponization timeline is extremely delayed, which is consistent with previous reports.[7] Lerner did note that Iran still retains a significant portion of its enriched uranium stockpile. Lerner stated that the US and Israeli strikes have “very seriously affected, very seriously damaged...and extremely delayed” all aspects of Iran’s nuclear program.[8] Lerner said that the strikes “destroyed” a small part of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile but claimed that Iran still retains most of its stockpile.[9] He added that France has “indications” of the stockpile’s location but cannot confirm the details until the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) resumes its verification activities at Iranian nuclear facilities.[10] The IAEA did not have access to all of the possible facilities Iran could use to store enriched uranium, so it is unclear how the IAEA is critical to confirming these details. Israeli intelligence, for example, has consistently provided exclusive information about Iran’s nuclear program that the IAEA has not provided (at least publicly). The enrichment level of the enriched material that Iran reportedly retains is unclear.
British Foreign Secretary David Lammy warned on July 8 that the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) could trigger the snapback mechanism if Iran does not cooperate on its nuclear program.[11] Lammy emphasized that Iran needs to “step back” from its “nuclear ambitions,” including by resuming IAEA inspections, to avoid snapback sanctions.[12] The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) snapback mechanism allows JCPOA signatories to reimpose UN Security Council sanctions on Iran in the event of “significant non-performance by Iran of JCPOA commitments.”[13] The snapback mechanism would reimpose six United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions on Iran, including bans on the transfer of conventional arms to and from Iran, international support for Iran’s missile program, enrichment-related activities, and the testing and development of nuclear-capable missiles.[14] The snapback mechanism expires in October 2025, after which the UN sanctions cannot be reinstated. The process of triggering the snapback mechanism and completing the UN Security Council can take up to 30 days, which means the E3 would need to start the process well in advance of the deadline. The sanctions, if imposed, would remain in place even after the deadline. These sanctions would increase economic pressure on Iran as it seeks to rebuild its military and economic infrastructure following the Israel-Iran war.
Over 100 prominent Qom clerics stated on July 9 that they declared loyalty to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, likely in response to efforts to sideline him amid his prolonged absence from public view.[37] The clerics described Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Israel as a “historic victory” under Khamenei’s leadership and praised him as the “divine pillar” of the Islamic Republic.[38] They also warned that any “insult or attack” on Khamenei would provoke a severe response.[39] Prominent cleric Ayatollah Naser Makarem Shirazi on June 29 previously declared that individuals who threaten Khamenei or religious authority are “mohareb” (enemies of God) and therefore subject to the death penalty.[40] The statement likely highlights growing efforts by Iranian hardliners to consolidate support for Khamenei amid signs of internal factional tension and attempts by other political actors to sideline Khamenei or regain influence for moderate politicians. Unspecified Iranian leaders reportedly developed a contingency plan during the Israel-Iran War to govern Iran without Khamenei if he is killed or informally sidelined.[41] They considered forming a leadership committee to replace him and negotiate a ceasefire with the United States and Israel.[42] Former President Hassan Rouhani separately lobbied senior clerics in Qom during the war, including Makarem Shirazi, to pressure Khamenei to accept a ceasefire and drop Iran’s demand for uranium enrichment on Iranian soil.[43]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-9-2025