Iran Update, July 9, 2025
French Director General of External Security Nicolas Lerner told French media on July 8 that Iran’s nuclear program is very seriously damaged and its weaponization timeline is extremely delayed, which is consistent with previous reports.[7] Lerner did note that Iran still retains a significant portion of its enriched uranium stockpile. Lerner stated that the US and Israeli strikes have “very seriously affected, very seriously damaged...and extremely delayed” all aspects of Iran’s nuclear program.[8] Lerner said that the strikes “destroyed” a small part of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile but claimed that Iran still retains most of its stockpile.[9] He added that France has “indications” of the stockpile’s location but cannot confirm the details until the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) resumes its verification activities at Iranian nuclear facilities.[10] The IAEA did not have access to all of the possible facilities Iran could use to store enriched uranium, so it is unclear how the IAEA is critical to confirming these details. Israeli intelligence, for example, has consistently provided exclusive information about Iran’s nuclear program that the IAEA has not provided (at least publicly). The enrichment level of the enriched material that Iran reportedly retains is unclear.
British Foreign Secretary David Lammy warned on July 8 that the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) could trigger the snapback mechanism if Iran does not cooperate on its nuclear program.[11] Lammy emphasized that Iran needs to “step back” from its “nuclear ambitions,” including by resuming IAEA inspections, to avoid snapback sanctions.[12] The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) snapback mechanism allows JCPOA signatories to reimpose UN Security Council sanctions on Iran in the event of “significant non-performance by Iran of JCPOA commitments.”[13] The snapback mechanism would reimpose six United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions on Iran, including bans on the transfer of conventional arms to and from Iran, international support for Iran’s missile program, enrichment-related activities, and the testing and development of nuclear-capable missiles.[14] The snapback mechanism expires in October 2025, after which the UN sanctions cannot be reinstated. The process of triggering the snapback mechanism and completing the UN Security Council can take up to 30 days, which means the E3 would need to start the process well in advance of the deadline. The sanctions, if imposed, would remain in place even after the deadline. These sanctions would increase economic pressure on Iran as it seeks to rebuild its military and economic infrastructure following the Israel-Iran war.
Over 100 prominent Qom clerics stated on July 9 that they declared loyalty to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, likely in response to efforts to sideline him amid his prolonged absence from public view.[37] The clerics described Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Israel as a “historic victory” under Khamenei’s leadership and praised him as the “divine pillar” of the Islamic Republic.[38] They also warned that any “insult or attack” on Khamenei would provoke a severe response.[39] Prominent cleric Ayatollah Naser Makarem Shirazi on June 29 previously declared that individuals who threaten Khamenei or religious authority are “mohareb” (enemies of God) and therefore subject to the death penalty.[40] The statement likely highlights growing efforts by Iranian hardliners to consolidate support for Khamenei amid signs of internal factional tension and attempts by other political actors to sideline Khamenei or regain influence for moderate politicians. Unspecified Iranian leaders reportedly developed a contingency plan during the Israel-Iran War to govern Iran without Khamenei if he is killed or informally sidelined.[41] They considered forming a leadership committee to replace him and negotiate a ceasefire with the United States and Israel.[42] Former President Hassan Rouhani separately lobbied senior clerics in Qom during the war, including Makarem Shirazi, to pressure Khamenei to accept a ceasefire and drop Iran’s demand for uranium enrichment on Iranian soil.[43]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-9-2025
A senior Israeli official told Western media on July 10 that Iran did not move its enriched uranium stockpile from the Fordow, Natanz, or Esfahan nuclear sites ahead of the US and Israeli strikes on the sites.[1] The official told Reuters that Iran has not moved the material since the strikes either.[2] Israeli sources stated on June 25 that US and Israeli strikes buried Iran's enriched uranium stockpile under rubble.[3] Israeli strikes on June 13 damaged the Fuel Plate Manufacturing Plant (FPFP) at the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center, which stored approximately 85 percent of Iran's 20 percent enriched uranium stockpile and 83 percent of Iran's 60 percent enriched uranium stockpile as of August 2023.[4] It is unclear how much, if any, of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile was at FPFP at the time of US and Israeli strikes. Reuters reported that Iran could gain access to the Esfahan site, but that it will be difficult to remove any of the material stored at the site, according to the senior Israeli official.[5] The New York Times similarly reported on July 10 that the storage facility at the Esfahan site was too deep to be effectively destroyed, but US and Israeli strikes made it significantly harder to access the material by targeting tunnel entrances, according to a senior Israeli official.[6] Uranium is an element, which means that you cannot destroy it with conventional weapons, only scatter it or pulverize it into dust. The Israeli official said that Israel believes Iran stored additional stockpiles at Fordow and Natanz but that these will be too difficult to recover following US and Israeli strikes.[7] The US and Israeli strikes on Fordow and other enrichment facilities could have buried enriched uranium underground to limit access to it. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Iran cannot access certain key nuclear facilities to accurately assess the damage.[8] Iran's enriched uranium stockpile is effectively inaccessible, assuming that Iran did not move the material and cannot access the facilities it is stored. Senior Israeli intelligence officials said that any Iranian attempts to recover the material would “almost certainly” be detected.[9]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-10-2025