Iran continues to signal that it will reject the recent US nuclear proposal. The United States recently sent a proposal to Iran that would require Iran to halt all uranium enrichment on Iranian soil after the establishment of a regional nuclear consortium.[1] Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei criticized the US proposal on June 9 and stated that Iran will soon present a counter-proposal via Oman.[2] Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated on June 8 that “no rational mind would accept” the US proposal.[3] CTP-ISW previously assessed that Iran's continued rejection of the US demand for zero uranium enrichment could cause the US-Iran negotiations to collapse.[4] US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a phone call on June 9 amid growing indications from Iranian officials that Iran is planning to reject the US proposal.[5] Trump stated after the phone call that Iran and the United States will meet on June 12, which corresponds with the reported US deadline for Iran to agree to a new nuclear deal.[6] Netanyahu reportedly convened a security cabinet meeting to discuss Iran following the phone call.[7]
The Iranian Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) released a statement following Trump and Netanyahu's phone call on June 9 in which it threatened to attack Israel's “covert nuclear facilities” in response to a potential Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.[8] The SNSC claimed that Iran would attack Israeli nuclear facilities using a “treasure trove” of sensitive information about Israeli nuclear facilities that Iran reportedly recently obtained and exfiltrated to Iran.[9] Iranian officials announced Iran's alleged acquisition of this sensitive information on June 7.[10] Iran's claim that it obtained intelligence about Israeli nuclear facilities is likely an information operation that seeks to advance several objectives. A US journalist reported on June 4 that Iran may include a demand for a nuclear weapons-free Middle East in its counter-proposal to the United States, citing two experts in contact with Iranian negotiators.[11] Iran may calculate that it can use its alleged acquisition of “sensitive information” about Israeli nuclear facilities to bolster its argument for a nuclear weapons-free Middle East. Iran may also use this information operation to reinforce its threat to attack Israeli nuclear facilities in retaliation for a potential Israeli strike on Iran in order to try to deter such a strike.[12]
Iran threatened to expand its nuclear program if the International Atomic Energy Agency passes a non-compliance resolution against Iran. The IAEA Board of Governors is meeting between June 9 and 13, during which the United States and the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) intend to submit a non-compliance resolution against Iran.[13] The United States and E3 drafted a non-compliance resolution in response to the May 31 IAEA comprehensive report that unscored Iran's “less than satisfactory” cooperation with the IAEA. Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Spokesperson Behrouz Kamalvandi stated on June 8 that Iran has prepared “a list of countermeasures,” including “technical” countermeasures, if the IAEA passes the non-compliance resolution.[14] Iran announced that it would install over 6,000 centrifuges at its enrichment facilities in retaliation for the IAEA Board of Governors’ November 2024 censure resolution that condemned Iran for its failure to cooperate fully with the IAEA.[15] It is unclear if Iran would decide to take a similar course of action in response to a non-compliance resolution. CTP-ISW previously assessed that Iran could calculate that taking steps to further expand its nuclear program would increase the risk of snapback sanctions or potential US or Israeli strikes on Iran.[16]
Iran is conducting an information operation to undermine the recent IAEA comprehensive report, likely to deter diplomatic and military action against Iran. The IAEA’s recent comprehensive report confirmed that Iran conducted undeclared nuclear activities at four locations—Turquzabad, Marivan, Varamin, and Lavizan-Shian—until the early 2000s.[17] The Institute for Science and International Security published an analysis of the IAEA’s comprehensive report on June 6 and highlighted that Iran conducted several implosion tests essential to building a nuclear weapon at Marivan in 2003.[18] The IAEA stated that Iran conducted these tests as part of its broader plan to conduct a cold test, which is typically the final test of a nuclear weapon implosion development program. The release of the IAEA’s comprehensive report follows reports that a “secret team” of Iranian weapons engineers and scientists is “exploring” a faster approach to build a nuclear weapon in a “matter of months.”[19] Iran responded to the comprehensive report by claiming on June 7 that Israel sabotaged and contaminated its nuclear facilities at these four sites.[20] Iran likely accused Israel of sabotage to obfuscate Iran's non-compliance with the IAEA and to try to deter a non-compliance resolution, potential US or Israeli strikes on Iran, and snapback sanctions.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-9-2025
Iran Update, June 10, 2025
Iran is preparing a counter-proposal for the United States that includes terms for an interim deal. Iran may calculate that reaching an interim deal with the United States will delay or prevent snapback sanctions or potential US or Israeli strikes on Iran. Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Political Affairs Majid Takht Ravanchi told Iranian state media on June 10 that Iran is still preparing its response to the recent US nuclear proposal but described the counter-proposal as offering a “framework for an agreement.”[13] Ravanchi stated that Iran is not currently interested in presenting a “very long...comprehensive” proposal. Ravanchi added that Iran and the United States can engage in “more detailed negotiations” after they agree on a framework agreement. A senior US official told Axios on June 10 that the United States has received indications that Iran will reject the recent US proposal while signaling interest in continuing the US-Iran nuclear negotiations.[14] Iran likely wants to continue negotiations in order to delay snapback sanctions or strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action snapback mechanism expires in October 2025, which may give Iran an incentive to prolong negotiations. Iran’s push for a framework agreement and continued negotiations also comes ahead of US President Donald Trump’s 60-day deadline, which expires on June 12, for Iran to agree to a new nuclear deal.[15] The United States and Iran will reportedly hold a sixth round of the US-Iran nuclear negotiations this week. Axios reported on June 10 that the United States and Iran will hold the sixth round of nuclear talks in Oslo on June 13 or in Muscat on June 15.[16]
Iran continues to emphasize air defense modernization amid potential US or Israeli strikes on Iran. Iranian Artesh Northwest Air Defense Region Deputy Commander Brigadier General Jafar Saleh inspected the Shahid Tohidi radar station in Bileh Savar, Ardabil Province, on June 10, to evaluate defense capabilities at the site.[37] Advisor to the Artesh Air Defense Force Commander Brigadier General Abazar Jokar separately highlighted the domestic development of the Iranian-made Bavar-373 system. Jokar confirmed that Iran developed Bavar-373 after Russia failed to deliver S-300s.[38] Israeli airstrikes on Iran in April and October 2024 rendered Iran’s four S-300 air defense systems inoperable. CTP-ISW previously assessed that it is unlikely that Russia can supply Iran with new S-300 components, given Russia’s need for S-300s for its war with Ukraine.[39]
The Iranian rial appreciated from 825,000 rials to one US dollar on June 9 to 820,500 rials to one US dollar on June 10.[40]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-10-2025