Iran Update, June 10, 2025
Iran is preparing a counter-proposal for the United States that includes terms for an interim deal. Iran may calculate that reaching an interim deal with the United States will delay or prevent snapback sanctions or potential US or Israeli strikes on Iran. Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Political Affairs Majid Takht Ravanchi told Iranian state media on June 10 that Iran is still preparing its response to the recent US nuclear proposal but described the counter-proposal as offering a “framework for an agreement.”[13] Ravanchi stated that Iran is not currently interested in presenting a “very long...comprehensive” proposal. Ravanchi added that Iran and the United States can engage in “more detailed negotiations” after they agree on a framework agreement. A senior US official told Axios on June 10 that the United States has received indications that Iran will reject the recent US proposal while signaling interest in continuing the US-Iran nuclear negotiations.[14] Iran likely wants to continue negotiations in order to delay snapback sanctions or strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action snapback mechanism expires in October 2025, which may give Iran an incentive to prolong negotiations. Iran’s push for a framework agreement and continued negotiations also comes ahead of US President Donald Trump’s 60-day deadline, which expires on June 12, for Iran to agree to a new nuclear deal.[15] The United States and Iran will reportedly hold a sixth round of the US-Iran nuclear negotiations this week. Axios reported on June 10 that the United States and Iran will hold the sixth round of nuclear talks in Oslo on June 13 or in Muscat on June 15.[16]
Iran continues to emphasize air defense modernization amid potential US or Israeli strikes on Iran. Iranian Artesh Northwest Air Defense Region Deputy Commander Brigadier General Jafar Saleh inspected the Shahid Tohidi radar station in Bileh Savar, Ardabil Province, on June 10, to evaluate defense capabilities at the site.[37] Advisor to the Artesh Air Defense Force Commander Brigadier General Abazar Jokar separately highlighted the domestic development of the Iranian-made Bavar-373 system. Jokar confirmed that Iran developed Bavar-373 after Russia failed to deliver S-300s.[38] Israeli airstrikes on Iran in April and October 2024 rendered Iran’s four S-300 air defense systems inoperable. CTP-ISW previously assessed that it is unlikely that Russia can supply Iran with new S-300 components, given Russia’s need for S-300s for its war with Ukraine.[39]
The Iranian rial appreciated from 825,000 rials to one US dollar on June 9 to 820,500 rials to one US dollar on June 10.[40]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-10-2025
Some reports suggest that Iran is opposed to several provisions of a recent US nuclear negotiations proposal. The time and date of the sixth round of nuclear talks have not yet been announced. The United States hopes the sixth round of negotiations will occur on June 12, while Iran insists on June 14.[9] An Iranian expert close to the Iranian regime claimed on June 11 that several provisions of the US nuclear proposal were so “maximalist, excessive, and even humiliating” that they compelled Iran to issue a firm and proportional response. The “proportional response” may refer to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s categorical rejection of the recent US nuclear proposal, which would require Iran to eventually halt all uranium enrichment on its own soil.[10] This Iranian response may have influenced Trump's remarks about the decreasing likelihood of a deal.[11] Trump separately told Fox News on June 11 that Iran has become “much more aggressive” in the negotiations.[12] Unspecified senior US officials told Fox News that Iran appears to be delaying the process while it advances its nuclear program.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), which monitors maritime security issues, also reacted on June 11 to increased tensions in the region. UKMTO published an advisory on June 11 that warned mariners about a rise in military activity in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman due “to heightened tensions in the region.”[13] UKMTO advised vessels transiting the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and Strait of Hormuz to exercise caution and report any incidents or suspicious activity.[14] The advisory comes amid previous alert reports and Iranian threats to international commercial shipping since May 2025. UKMTO previously reported on May 18 that several vessels experienced Global Positioning System (GPS) interference in the Strait of Hormuz for several hours.[15] Iran has historically conducted GPS jamming to create conditions to seize ships that inadvertently enter its territorial waters.[16] Iranian Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS) Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri threatened on May 12 that Iran would respond to any attack by disrupting international commercial shipping.[17] IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami also inspected IRGC naval units in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf islands on June 11 to evaluate units’ readiness.[18] Salami stated that the IRGC Navy is “fully equipped and operationally ready” to respond to any threat and that it has prepared specific responses for all scenarios. Any Iranian response to any military action taken against Iran would likely include operations in the Persian Gulf.
The United States and the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) submitted a non-compliance resolution that declares Iran in non-compliance with its safeguards obligations at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meeting on June 11.[24] The IAEA Board of Governors has not yet voted on the resolution and will resume its meeting on June 12.[25] The non-compliance resolution will reportedly give Iran an unspecified period to address its “less than satisfactory” cooperation with the IAEA’s probe into three undeclared Iranian nuclear sites.[26] The IAEA Board of Governors previously passed a similar non-compliance resolution against Iran in September 2005.[27] The Board of Governors later referred Iran's non-compliance to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in February 2006, which led to the imposition of UN sanctions on Iran.[28] The Board of Governors could similarly refer the new non-compliance resolution to the UNSC, assuming the Board of Governors passes the resolution. Such an action could lead to the imposition of further UN sanctions on Iran. The E3 could separately use the non-compliance resolution in future efforts to impose snapback sanctions on Iran. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) snapback mechanism allows JCPOA signatories to reimpose UN Security Council sanctions on Iran in the event of “significant non-performance by Iran of JCPOA commitments.”[29]
Iran has threatened to expand its nuclear program if the IAEA passes a non-compliance resolution against Iran. A UK-based outlet reported on June 11 that it has “learned” that Iran will “likely” open a new uranium enrichment facility in response to a non-compliance resolution.[30] This report is consistent with statements from Iranian officials threatening to take “technical” counter-measures in response to an IAEA non-compliance resolution.[31] Iran has previously announced it would take steps to expand its nuclear program in retaliation for IAEA resolutions.[32] CTP-ISW previously assessed that Iran could calculate that taking steps to further expand its nuclear program at this time would increase the risk of snapback sanctions or potential US or Israeli strikes on Iran.[33]
Russia offered to accept Iran's “excess” enriched uranium stockpile as part of a potential US-Iran nuclear agreement.[34] Russian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated on June 11 that Russia is “ready to provide assistance” to the United States and Iran regarding the US-Iran nuclear negotiations.[35] Ryabkov added that Russia could remove Iran's “excess nuclear material” and downblend it.[36] Downblending is the process of converting highly enriched uranium into low-enriched uranium. Iran previously sent 25,000 pounds of its 20 percent enriched uranium to Russia in December 2015 as part of the 2015 US-Iran nuclear deal.[37] Russia's offer comes amid recent Russian efforts to acquire a more influential role within US-Iran negotiations, including repeated offers to mediate the talks.[38] CTP-ISW previously assessed that Russia's involvement in the US-Iran nuclear talks would be very unlikely to secure US interests due to Russia's alignment with Iran.[39] Russia has opposed the stated US demands in the negotiations by supporting Iran's right to enrich uranium and has tried to interfere with US-E3 attempts to declare Iran non-compliant with IAEA standards.[40] A Wall Street Journal journalist reported on June 11 that Russian Permanent Representative to the UN in Vienna Mikhail Ulyanov delivered an “extremely long statement” at the IAEA Board of Governors meeting on June 11, likely to delay a vote on the non-compliance resolution against Iran.[41] It is notable that Russia is simultaneously offering to support the US-Iran nuclear negotiations while trying to help Iran delay the vote on a non-compliance resolution and avoid further sanctions.
The Iranian rial depreciated from 820,500 rials to one US dollar on June 10 to 824,500 rials to one US dollar on June 11.[53]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-11-2025