Iran Update, May 8, 2025
Details about the activities of senior Hezbollah commanders in northern Yemen in the early 2010s demonstrate how Iran and its allies likely share lessons, techniques, and capabilities over time.[16] Yemeni sources posted new photos and information showing Hezbollah advisers in Yemen on May 8. [17] The IDF killed both Hezbollah advisers in Fall 2024 during the campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon.[18] One Hezbollah commander, Ali Adel Ashmar, played a major role in the capture of Amran and Sanaa cities, which happened in July and September 2014, respectively.[19] This suggests that Hezbollah played a major role in advising the 2014 Houthi campaign. Hezbollah also sent Mohammad Hussein Srour, who at the time of his death was Hezbollah’s Aerial Command commander, to Yemen to support the development of Houthi missile capabilities and drone manufacturing.[20] Key Houthi commanders have now assumed an advising role with Iraqi militias that is similar to Hezbollah’s advising role in Yemen. A US airstrike killed a top Houthi drone expert outside Baghdad in July 2024, for example.[21] This demonstrates how Iran and its key proxies and partners share lessons learned, techniques, and capabilities over time and across the region. The Houthi commanders in Iraq today surely share lessons learned from their Hezbollah advisers in the 2010s, as well as the lessons the Houthis have learned over two decades of war against several different regional and international powers.
Unspecified Iranian diplomatic sources told anti-regime media on May 8 that the US-Iran nuclear talks are “faltering” over Iranian uranium enrichment restrictions and “fluctuating US demands.”[22] Iranian sources added that shifting US demands on Iran’s missile program and support for the Axis of Resistance are complicating progress in the negotiations. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi previously stated on April 16 that “contradictory” US positions do not help the negotiations and emphasized that “Iran must hear Washington’s real stance” to assess whether a framework agreement is possible.[23] An Iranian expert close to the regime separately stated on May 1 that the fourth round of talks originally scheduled for May 3 was postponed due to “contradictory US positions.”[24] US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff initially said Iran could enrich uranium to 3.67 percent, but later demanded all enrichment be stopped and eliminated.[25] Witkoff then said in a Breitbart interview on May 9 that he hoped that Iran would “voluntarily“ stop enrichment before adding that the US “red line“ is that “an enrichment program can never exist in Iran again.“[26] Araghchi confirmed on May 9 that the fourth round of talks will take place in Muscat, Oman, on May 12.[27] An Iranian Parliamentarian claimed on May 6 that the talks were postponed partly due to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi’s reported desire to join the nuclear talks as a European representative.[28] The Parliamentarian also claimed that Grossi provided reports to the United States suggesting that Iran is “very close” to a nuclear bomb.[29] Araghchi held a phone call with Grossi on May 9 to discuss cooperation between Iran and the agency and the current status of the US-Iran nuclear talks.[30] CTP-ISW previously assessed that it is unlikely that Iran will accept zero uranium enrichment and full dismantlement of its nuclear program, as Iran views uranium enrichment as its “undeniable right” and sees giving up as a core national red line. CTP-ISW also continues to assess that Iran is unlikely to concede on its missile program, as the missile program is essential to its defense strategy, especially given the weakness of Iran’s conventional armed forces.[31]
Iran faces growing disruption to its key oil exports as US sanctions on Chinese refineries threaten its main revenue stream. Reuters reported on May 8 that US sanctions imposed in March and April 2025 on two small Chinese independent refineries—Shandong Shouguang Luqing Petrochemical and Shandong Shengxing Chemical—have begun to disrupt Chinese handling of Iranian crude oil.[49] The sanctioned refineries now face a loss of port access, financing restrictions from major Chinese banks, and the loss of domestic crude oil supply from state firms like China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC).[50] The sanctioned Chinese refineries are also using third-party entities to sell their products and bypass formal restrictions. The US State Department separately sanctioned China-based Hebei Xinhai Chemical Group and three oil terminal operators, along with numerous firms, vessels, and captains, for facilitating hundreds of millions of dollars in Iranian oil sales on May 8.[51] These sanctions follow an increase in US sanctions targeting China-based entities involved in the illicit Iranian oil trade as part of US President Donald Trump’s renewed “maximum pressure” campaign.[52] China remains the largest importer of Iranian oil, purchasing approximately 90 percent of Iran’s total oil exports, according to Reuters.[53]
The Iranian rial depreciated from 831,000 rials to one US dollar on May 8 to 840,000 rials to one US dollar on May 9.[48]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-9-2025
Fourth Iranian man arrested in London terror probe
The Metropolitan Police said the 31-year-old was detained in north-west London on Friday morning under the National Security Act. Three other men - all from Iran and aged 39, 44 and 55 - were arrested in London on 3 May as part of the investigation. Police have obtained warrants to hold those three men until 17 May.
The investigation is separate to one involving an alleged plot to target the Israeli embassy in London, for which four other Iranian men are still being questioned, while a fifth has been released on bail. On Tuesday, Home Office minister Dan Jarvis described the two separate investigations as “some of the largest counter-state threats and counter-terrorism actions that we have seen in recent times”. He also confirmed the men were the “first Iranian nationals arrested under the National Security Act”.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c753n27n5rvo
Iran's refusal to accept US demands for zero uranium enrichment and the complete dismantlement of its nuclear program could stall US-Iran nuclear negotiations. The United States and Iran held their fourth round of nuclear talks in Oman on May 11.[1] US Special Envoy to the Middle East and lead US negotiator Steve Witkoff stated prior to the talks that Iran can ”never” have an enrichment program.[2] Witkoff stated that Iran must dismantle its three enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan and can no longer have centrifuges. Witkoff added that a new nuclear agreement would not include sunset provisions, which are provisions that expire after a certain period of time. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) included a sunset provision that restricted Iranian uranium enrichment for 15 years. Iranian officials, including Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi and President Masoud Pezeshkian, rejected Witkoff’s statements and emphasized that Iran will not accept zero enrichment. Araghchi stated, for example, that Iran is willing to accept limits on its uranium enrichment but “the principle of enrichment itself is simply non-negotiable.”[3] Iranian officials have recently stated that Iran would agree to reduce its uranium enrichment to 2015 JCPOA levels.[4] Anti-Iranian regime media previously reported on May 8 that the US-Iran nuclear talks were “faltering” over Iranian uranium enrichment restrictions and “fluctuating US demands prior to the fourth round of talks.”[5]
Iran is also very unlikely to curtail its support for the Axis of Resistance. Witkoff stated on May 8 that the United States remains committed to ending Iranian support for its regional proxies but will address this issue in “later phases” of the negotiations.[6] Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected this demand. Iranian Parliamentarian Ebrahim Rezaei stated on May 12 that Iran's “regional power” is non-negotiable, almost certainly referring to Iran's support for the Axis of Resistance.[7] Iran has continued to support its regional proxies, including by sending missiles to Iraqi militias and supporting the financial reconstitution of Hezbollah, for example. [8]
Senior Iranian commanders appear to be preparing for potential US or Israeli strikes on Iran amid new implicit US threats. Iranian Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS) Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri visited Artesh and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) naval sites in Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province, on May 12 to inspect their operational readiness.[9] Other senior Iranian commanders, including IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami and Artesh Commander Major General Abdol Rahim Mousavi, accompanied Bagheri.[10] Bagheri stated that the AFGS reviewed all operational plans in southern Iran and claimed that the plans showed “full readiness to confront any potential threat.”[11] Artesh Air Force Commander Brigadier General Hamid Vahedi separately visited the Fifth Tactical Air Base in Khuzestan Province on May 11 to assess combat readiness and inspect facilities, including barracks and a weapons depot.[12] Senior Iranian commanders have conducted inspections of air defense sites and military bases across Iran in recent weeks, likely to ensure that units remain prepared for a potential strike.[13] The recent inspections come amid new implicit threats from US officials about potential military action against Iran if the current US-Iran nuclear negotiations do not result in an agreement. US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff warned on May 9 that it would be ”very unwise” for Iran to reject US demands.[14] Witkoff stated that if the May 11 talks with Iran were ”not productive,” then the United States would ”take a different route.”[15] Unspecified sources close to Witkoff similarly told Israel media on May 10 that if the May 11 talks with Iran did not yield ”significant progress,” then the United States would consider putting the “military option back on the table.[16] US President Donald Trump stated on May 12 that Iran is acting “intelligently and reasonably” in ongoing negotiations over the country's nuclear program.[17]
Iran and the Axis of Resistance are likely conducting a coordinated disinformation campaign against the Syrian transitional government. A BBC investigation published on May 11 found that approximately 50,000 accounts on X appear to have coordinated the spread of sectarian rhetoric, hate speech, and disinformation since the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024.[40] Many of the accounts have usernames with randomly generated characters, which indicates that the accounts are bots.[41] BBC reported that approximately 60 percent of the posts originated from outside Syria and were concentrated in Iran and Axis of Resistance strongholds, including Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon.[42] CTP-ISW previously assessed that Iran is attempting to inflame sectarian tensions in Syria, likely to destabilize the Syrian transitional government and thereby re-establish itself in Syria.[43]
This disinformation campaign is likely intended to generate sectarian tensions and discontent with the transitional government within the Syrian population, which could enable Iran to re-entrench itself in Syria. BBC reported that the bot accounts flooded the information space with posts that contained sectarian language.[44] The accounts also posted old footage and imagery of sectarian violence and falsely portrayed the violence as recent sectarian events in Syria.[45] Iranian media has circulated reports of sectarian violence in Syria and has highlighted the transitional government's alleged failure to address security concerns since the fall of the Assad regime.[46] Reports of sectarian violence in the information space, regardless of whether they are real or false, risk generating feelings of insecurity within the Syrian population and discouraging cooperation between the Syrian population and government. A fractured Syrian state could enable Iran and Iranian-backed actors to exploit security gaps to reestablish their influence in Syrian and rebuild ground lines of communication through Syria to members of the Axis of Resistance.
The disinformation campaign could drive Syrian communities to seek out alternative sources of security to the transitional government. The disinformation campaign supports pro-Alawite insurgent efforts to undermine confidence in the transitional government. Insurgents seek to exploit fear and grievances within a population to establish themselves as the primary security guarantor. The bot accounts, which intentionally spread reports of violence, generate an outsized perception of threats against a community and undermine confidence in the transitional government's ability to provide basic protection. CTP-ISW has observed a relative decline in insurgent activity since March 2025, but insurgent groups have not abandoned their objectives to eject government forces from Alawite areas and undermine the new Syrian government. There is no evidence that Iran is cooperating with the pro-Alawite insurgency at this time.
Iranian Law Enforcement Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Reza Radan visited Niger on May 8 to deepen security cooperation.[70] Radan met with senior Nigerien officials, including Prime Minister Ali Lamine Zeine, Foreign Affairs Minister Bakary Yaou Sangare, and Police Chief Brigadier General Omar Tchiani. Iran and Niger signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) focused on counterterrorism, organized crime, and intelligence sharing. Radan stated that Iran is ready to transfer ”policing experience“ to Niger.[71] Radan recently visited Ethiopia and Burkina Faso on May 6 to sign security cooperation agreements focused on counterterrorism, human trafficking, and law enforcement training.[72] Iran could seek to export policing tools, including surveillance and protest suppression capabilities, to these countries while simultaneously building strategic partnerships that can help Iran evade sanctions and access critical resources.[73]
The United States sanctioned several Iranian individuals and entities involved in Iranian nuclear-related research on May 12.[77] The United States sanctioned three Iranian individuals and one Iran-based entity for their role in supporting Iranian nuclear research in association with the Iranian Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND).[78] The SPND played a leading role in the Iranian nuclear weapons research program before 2003.[79] The sanctioned individuals and entity include:
Sayyed Mohammad Reza Seddighi Saber: Saber is the head of SPND’s Shahid Karimi Group, which is involved in explosives research.
Ahmad Haghighat Talab: Haghighat Talab is a senior SPND official and former Amad Project nuclear scientist. The Amad Project refers to Iran's nuclear weapons program prior to 2003. Haghighat Talab has conducted nuclear research that has potential military applications.
Mohammed Reza Mehdipur: Mehdipur is the head of SPND’s Shahid Chamran Group, which conducts explosion and shock research.
Fuya Pars Prospective Technologists (Ideal Vacuum): Fuya Pars Prospective Technologists is an SPND-affiliated company that has attempted to procure or produce equipment that Iran could use in nuclear weapons research and development.
The US Department of the Treasury stated that all of the sanctioned individuals and entities face secondary sanctions. These sanctions come amid a broader increase in US sanctions against Iran as part of US President Donald Trump's “maximum pressure” campaign.
The Iranian rial appreciated from 840,000 rials to one US dollar on May 9 to 837,000 rials to one US dollar on May 12.[80]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-12-2025