Iran Update, March 13, 2025
The United Kingdom (UK) threatened to impose snapback sanctions on Iran during a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) meeting about the Iranian nuclear program on March 12.[53] A senior British official stated that the UK is ready to take “any diplomatic measure...including the use of snapback sanctions” to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) snapback mechanism allows JCPOA signatories to reimpose UNSC sanctions on Iran in the event of “significant non-performance by Iran of JCPOA commitments.”[54] An unspecified Iranian deputy foreign affairs minister will meet with his Russian and Chinese counterparts in Beijing on March 14 to discuss the Iranian “nuclear issue.”[55] Iran may send Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Political Affairs Majid Takht Ravanchi, who serves as the chief Iranian nuclear negotiator. The meeting will likely cover the UNSC meeting as Russia and China are both members of the UNSC and attended the meeting on March 13. Russia and China are also both JCPOA signatories.
UK-based outlet The Telegraph reported on March 13 that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ordered the removal of Vice President for Strategic Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif due to Zarif’s opposition to deepening Russo-Iranian relations.[56] Zarif reportedly opposed Iranian military support for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Zarif’s dismissal highlights Khamenei’s commitment to further developing Iran’s strategic relationship with Russia. The Iranian government previously shut down a major reformist outlet in 2023 for criticizing the government’s efforts to increase cooperation with Russia and China.[57]
The United States sanctioned Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad on March 13 as part of the US “maximum pressure” campaign.[58] The United States also sanctioned 17 shipping companies and 13 vessels for facilitating Iranian oil exports to China “worth billions of dollars.”[59]
Iran increased gold imports by 300 percent between January 2024 and 2025, according to an al Jazeera report.[60] Iranian reformist media reported on March 11 that “millions” of Iranians seek to buy gold.[61] The increased effort to obtain gold could indicate public distrust in the strength of the Iranian currency. The Iranian rial has depreciated to record-low exchange rates in recent months, reaching 923,050 rials to one US dollar on March 13.[62][63]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-13-2025
Iran, China, and Russia issued a joint statement on March 14 effectively condemning the US “maximum pressure” strategy vis-a-vis Iran.[1] The statement came from a meeting of the Iranian, Chinese, and Russian deputy foreign ministers in Beijing.[2] The statement called on “relevant parties”—a reference to the United States—to “lift all illegal unilateral sanctions” on Iran. The statement described Iranian nuclear activities as “exclusively for peaceful purposes,” despite numerous indications that Tehran has restarted its nuclear weapons program.[3] Iran currently has enough high-enriched uranium to build six nuclear weapons, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.[4] The statement also emphasized the parties’ commitment to strengthening their cooperation through BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Tehran wants to use these institutions to undermine US sanctions and build a parallel economic order to the US-led one.
The Iran-China-Russia statement underscores that Russia is unlikely to play a constructive role in mediating between the United States and Iran. Western media reported that the Kremlin has offered to mediate in recent days.[5] CTP-ISW has assessed that Russia is unlikely to secure US interests via such mediation, especially in negotiations focused on Iranian nuclear activities and the Axis of Resistance.[6]
Iranian authorities have grown increasingly concerned about popular unrest and anti-regime protests amid deteriorating economic conditions. Iranian leaders have held several “high-level meetings” recently to discuss possible widespread protests and measures to “head them off,” according to an unspecified Iranian official.[48] Another Iranian official told Reuters that Iran is “like a powder keg” and further economic issues could “set it off.” Economic issues have fueled widespread protests in Iran repeatedly in recent years.[49] Reuters spoke to some Iranian citizens who responded positively to the notion of an international nuclear deal that brings economic relief to Iran.[50]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-14-2025