Iran Update, December 29, 2024
ootage circulating on social media showed protests at the Grand Bazaar in Tehran on December 29 in response to the worsening state of the Iranian economy.[64] Iran continues to face a severe energy crisis that has significantly limited Iran’s manufacturing capacity and shut down large parts of Iranian society.[65] CTP-ISW previously assessed that this crisis and the declining value of the Iranian rial could present a serious threat to regime stability by fueling anti-regime sentiment and generating internal unrest in Iran.[66] Iranian Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei recently ordered Iranian security forces to prepare for potential unrest.[67]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-29-2024
ootage => Footage
Iran appears increasingly as though it seeks to foment sectarian conflict in Syria, which it could then exploit to establish proxy and partner militias there. Outlets affiliated with the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Armed Forces General Staff published reports on December 30 to this end. One outlet reported on HTS-affiliated elements committing violence against Syrian Alawites.[1] Another outlet reported that armed “resistance” has formed against the HTS-led interim government in response to its offenses against the Syrian people.[2] CTP-ISW has independently observed anti-HTS elements appearing in predominantly Alawite areas in recent days. That the Iranian outlet framed these elements as “resistance” is noteworthy given that the term has an overwhelmingly positive connotation in Iranian regime discourse.[3] Other Iranian outlets that have no obvious affiliation with the Iranian security establishment have published reports emphasizing sectarian tensions in recent days as well. For instance, one outlet reported on purported HTS efforts to achieve the “de-Shia-ization of Syria.”[4] A Middle Eastern source separately told a Western analyst that regional countries have shared intelligence with HTS in recent days that the IRGC is planning to “foster, direct, and support an insurgency” in Syria, presumably by exploiting the sectarian tension that Iran is currently trying to stoke.[5] Another source told the Western analyst that HTS-led forces detained two former Syrian regime operatives with IRGC identification cards and at least three Lebanese nationals.[6] CTP-ISW cannot verify these reports, but it is consistent with senior Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, suggesting in recent days that Syrian youth should arm and mobilize against the interim government.[7]
Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi highlighted the need for closer consultations with China to address Iran's nuclear program and sanctions relief during his visit to Beijing on December 27.[76] Iranian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Legal and International Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi previously met with Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu in Beijing on December 5 to discuss similar matters.[77] Araghchi’s visit comes as Iranian oil tankers watchers observed a significant decline in Iranian oil exports to China as result of US Treasury sanctions on vessels since October 2024.[78]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-30-2024