Iran appears increasingly as though it seeks to foment sectarian conflict in Syria, which it could then exploit to establish proxy and partner militias there. Outlets affiliated with the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Armed Forces General Staff published reports on December 30 to this end. One outlet reported on HTS-affiliated elements committing violence against Syrian Alawites.[1] Another outlet reported that armed “resistance” has formed against the HTS-led interim government in response to its offenses against the Syrian people.[2] CTP-ISW has independently observed anti-HTS elements appearing in predominantly Alawite areas in recent days. That the Iranian outlet framed these elements as “resistance” is noteworthy given that the term has an overwhelmingly positive connotation in Iranian regime discourse.[3] Other Iranian outlets that have no obvious affiliation with the Iranian security establishment have published reports emphasizing sectarian tensions in recent days as well. For instance, one outlet reported on purported HTS efforts to achieve the “de-Shia-ization of Syria.”[4] A Middle Eastern source separately told a Western analyst that regional countries have shared intelligence with HTS in recent days that the IRGC is planning to “foster, direct, and support an insurgency” in Syria, presumably by exploiting the sectarian tension that Iran is currently trying to stoke.[5] Another source told the Western analyst that HTS-led forces detained two former Syrian regime operatives with IRGC identification cards and at least three Lebanese nationals.[6] CTP-ISW cannot verify these reports, but it is consistent with senior Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, suggesting in recent days that Syrian youth should arm and mobilize against the interim government.[7]
Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi highlighted the need for closer consultations with China to address Iran's nuclear program and sanctions relief during his visit to Beijing on December 27.[76] Iranian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Legal and International Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi previously met with Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu in Beijing on December 5 to discuss similar matters.[77] Araghchi’s visit comes as Iranian oil tankers watchers observed a significant decline in Iranian oil exports to China as result of US Treasury sanctions on vessels since October 2024.[78]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-30-2024
A member of Iran's Guardian Council has cautioned that if popular demands for certain freedoms, which he described as aligned with plans by adversaries, are overlooked, the country risks facing a scenario similar to Syria. “Negligence by officials and certain groups in society could bring us to a situation like we saw in Syria,” said Mehdi Shabzandehdar, drawing parallels to the ouster of Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
He said that “certain freedoms” align with enemy plans to undermine the Islamic Republic. “The freedoms that a small group pursues, which have significant conflicts of interest and great harms, must be carefully scrutinized as they align with the enemies’ plans,” he said. He warned that if such actions weaken public attachment to Islam, the Islamic Revolution, and its values, “it will be a day of celebration for our enemies.” His remarks come amid growing defiance of mandatory hijab laws by Iranian women and broader demands for social freedoms across the country.
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202412304932
Iran Update, December 31, 2024
There are growing indications that Iran is trying to stoke and exploit sectarian violence in Syria. Doing so would weaken the HTS-led interim government and help reestablish the Axis of Resistance in Syria. The main outlet of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) called on December 31 for a counter-revolution in Syria, framing it as a response to the “occupation” of Syria by “takfiri terrorists.”[4] This term refers to apostates and is commonly used by Iran to refer to the so-called “Islamic State” and other armed Sunni organizations. The IRGC report added that the liberation of Syria is “imminent.” This rhetoric from the IRGC marks the first time that CTP-ISW has observed Iran appearing to call for a revolt against the HTS-led interim government. Rhetoric from Iranian leaders and state media has until this point ambiguously called for the formation of armed resistance in Syria but would often mention resistance to Israeli ground operations in southwestern Syria in the same breath. That the main outlet of the IRGC made these remarks is especially noteworthy given that regional sources have claimed that the IRGC is planning to organize, direct, and support new proxy and partner militia networks in Syria. It is also noteworthy that the IRGC report comes around the same time that the Syrian Popular Resistance announced its formation and opposition to the HTS-led interim government. Iranian state media has previously reported on the formation of armed resistance against HTS in positive terms.[5] Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian separately stated on December 31 that “a new resistance has been born [in Syria] that will manifest itself in the coming years” during a meeting with the Omani foreign affairs minister.[6]
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian met with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on December 31 to discuss efforts to address inflation, the devaluation of the Iranian currency, and energy shortages.[57] Pezeshkian stated that discussions included using subsidies to help consumers, fostering economic cooperation with neighboring countries, and energy conservation efforts.[58]
The United States sanctioned IRGC subsidiary Cognitive Design Production Center (CDPC), which specializes in influence operations, for trying to interfere in the 2024 US presidential election.[59] CDPC has specifically tried inciting political tensions among US voters since 2023.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-31-2024