The friction between the Salafi-jihadi ideologues and Shara’s relatively moderate governance could force Shara to compel Salafi-jihadists to adhere to his vision or take a more Salafi approach to preserve Shara’s coalition. Both al Qaeda-linked ideologues and ISIS have denounced HTS’s protection of religious minorities and engagement with the West. A “prominent” al Qaeda supporter publicly “advised” HTS to avoid the mistakes of the Taliban by adhering to “Islamic principles” and avoid “pleasing the West.” He added that Shara must adhere to Islamic principles because the West and “Jews and Christians” would not be pleased with moderate measures until Shara converted to Judaism or Christianity.[15] ISIS similarly argued that HTS’s protection of religious minorities and engagement with “infidel” states is unacceptable. Other ISIS supporters are criticizing Shara’s Western dress — including suits and ties — and implying these make him unIslamic.[16] These arguments may attract some Salafi-jihadists who are resistant to Shara’s approach.[17] Shara has previously suppressed similar Salafi-jihadist opposition by force of arms.[18] He will likely attempt to do so again if he believes he has the bandwidth to do so.
ISIS may be attempting to resupply its forces with weapons captured from regime, Russian, and Iranian stocks in the central Syrian desert. US Central Command (CENTCOM) conducted an airstrike targeting ISIS operatives moving a “truckload of weapons” in Deir ez Zor Province, Syria, on December 23.[19] CENTCOM confirmed that it killed two ISIS fighters and wounded one fighter in an area of Deir Ez Zor formerly controlled by the Assad regime and Russia. ISIS fighters−who have long fought under threat of airstrikes — would presumably avoid transporting large amounts of weapons from existing ISIS stocks, given the risk that US airstrikes would destroy much-needed weapons stockpiles. The decision to transport these weapons in a “truckload” suggests that ISIS had captured a new stock of weapons and attempted to transport them to a safe location when CENTCOM struck the vehicle. There are many positions throughout the desert in Syria formerly occupied by Russian, Iranian, or Assad regime forces that are currently unoccupied and could contain weapons that ISIS needs to reconstitute itself. ISIS seeks to exploit the hasty withdrawal of Russian and Syrian regime forces by capturing these stocks.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-24-2024
Iran is also making remarks that risk stoking sectarian tension. Senior Iranian officials, including the supreme leader, have repeatedly suggested that the Syrian youth will “rise up” in Syria.[13] The Iranian supreme leader compared these “Syrian youth” to the Iraqi militia groups that systematically hunted down and killed Sunni civilians in Baghdad as part of a campaign of sectarian cleansing in Iraq.[14] Core HTS fighters from Jabhat al Nusra and al Qaeda in Iraq, like Shara, are intimately familiar with the Iraqi context and would presumably read “Syrian youth” as a much more sectarian call than it immediately appears. Sectarian Iranian remarks would provide an opening for Sunni sectarian elements in Syria to portray all Alawites and Shia as pro-Iranian proxies to justify a violent crackdown.
Syrian Foreign Affairs Minister Asaad Hassan al Shaibani responded to these Iranian statements. He warned Iran against “spreading chaos in Syria” and stated that Syria will hold Iran “accountable for the repercussions of [its] latest remarks,” likely referring to ongoing rhetoric from senior Iranian officials suggesting that Syrian youth will “rise up” in Syria.[15]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-26-2024