Posted on 10/08/2022 1:05:38 PM PDT by nuconvert
Iranian Regime national tv Channel One hacked about an hour ago. During a broadcast of Khamenie speech, a red crosshair appeared over his face and chanting of Women. Life. Freedom. There was writing to the side saying "Rise up. Join us". Also 4 photos at the bottom of the screen of young people killed and additional writing: "The blood of our youth is dropping from your paws".
Also, there was a huge banner in the middle of Tehran highway today that read: We are no longer afraid of you. We will fight.
Also, attempted attack on IRI ambassador in Denmark. Her bodyguard was stabbed. Diplomatic Security intervened before the attacker could stab the ambassador.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee has decided to award the Nobel Peace Prize for 2023 to Narges Mohammadi for her fight against the oppression of women in Iran and her fight to promote human rights and freedom for all. Her brave struggle has come with tremendous personal costs. Altogether, the regime has arrested her 13 times, convicted her five times, and sentenced her to a total of 31 years in prison and 154 lashes. Ms Mohammadi is still in prison as I speak.
https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2023/press-release/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narges_Mohammadi
‘Voice of oppressed people:’ Rights activist Narges Mohammadi speaks out for Iranian women from prison
Shirin Ebadi obtained the Nobel Peace Prize for 2003
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shirin_Ebadi
1. Turkey has conducted a series of airstrikes in northern Syria against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)—the United States’ sole security partner in the country—since October 5. These attacks are placing significant pressure on the SDF, which, in turn, puts at risk the US mission to defeat ISIS. The US relies heavily on the SDF to conduct and facilitate counter-ISIS operations in Syria.[2] The SDF is already under significant strain in eastern Syria, where a tribal insurgency erupted in August 2023 and has motivated the SDF to commit resources toward fighting.[3] The Turkish airstrikes could create space for the tribal insurgency to expand and for ISIS to consolidate its position in SDF-held territory, given that the SDF faces bandwidth constraints. CTP continues to assess that ISIS aims to reimpose its control over territory in Syria and has the capability to do so, should the opportunity arise.[4]
2. Iran has demanded that the Iraqi central government extradite members of Iranian Kurdish opposition groups to Iran, according to independent Iraqi outlet Al Mada. Such a demand would appear to violate international law. States cannot send refugees to territories where their “life or freedom would be threatened on account of [their] race, religion, nationality, or membership of a particular social group or political opinion,” according to the 1967 Protocol of the 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees.[22] The UN High Commissioner for Refugees defined a “refugee” as an individual who has “a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political, is outside the country of [their] nationality, and... unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to return to it.”[23] Iraqi government extradition of Kurdish Iranian opposition groups would also appear to violate the international legal principle of non-refoulment. Non-refoulment guarantees that migrants irrespective of migrant status should not be returned to a country of origin where they would come under “torture, cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment and other irreparable harm.”[24]
Read more: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-6-2023
Syria and Iran are cooperating with Russia. Since Russia has problems in Ukraine, Iran has ordered Hamas to attack Israel.
Hezbollah is next.
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2023/10/07/Hezbollah-Hamas-operation-is-message-to-those-seeking-normalization-with-Israel-
Promised insights on the situation in Israel. Let's go through the points.
✅Hamas launched one of the worst attacks on Israel in decades. Thousands of missiles, drones, and groups of armed men have been infiltrated. There is chaos in the border areas of Israel, accompanied by the killing of civilians. One of Israel's bases on the border has been taken over by the Palestinians.
✅Many (including the Israelis themselves) complain that Israeli intelligence allegedly slept through the attack. But it is not so. According to satellite data, in two weeks some of the IDF military equipment was withdrawn from border towns and villages. They were preparing for the attack, but probably did not expect it to be so massive.
✅Hamas’s military success is unlikely to last, because the forces are not equal. And here is an important point that may be related to the previous point. In the eyes of the whole world, it is Israel that is now the victim of aggression and, in fact, all restrictions on the destruction of “terrorists” have been lifted. This is important to understand in the context of the US-Israel-Saudi Arabia triangle.
✅The Saudis have repeatedly advocated normalization with Israel in order to normalize economic relations, but the Palestinians have also repeatedly prevented this. It is worth understanding that the conflict around the Gaza Strip is not just a war between Israel and Palestine, everything is much more complicated. Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Turkey, Syria, Russia, USA, China, Great Britain - this is not the entire list of countries that are in one way or another connected with this conflict.
✅And now the most important thing - why was the attack on Israeli positions by Hamas carried out precisely on the night of October 7 ? There is a lot of conspiracy theory about Vladimir Putin's birthday, but it's more banal - 50 years ago the so-called “Yom Kippur War” began, when Israel and Syria tried to recapture territories that they had lost several years earlier. It is foolish to pretend that Israel did not know that this date was approaching.
Hamas managed to train several hundred fighters who commit jihad essentially with their bare hands - their task is not just to attack, but to show it live. To encourage as many people as possible to join. It can be assumed that the regular Israeli army will stabilize the situation militarily in the coming days and will probably storm the Gaza Strip.
✅Political elites lost communication over the war. A very long public reaction was associated with the negotiations that Netanyahu held with the Americans, Saudis, Germans and Chinese. Four major calls were made before his release with public reaction. It is significant that the Israeli Prime Minister did not call Moscow. Three hours later, the Foreign Intelligence Service [of Russia SVR] received a letter containing the following phrase: “We know about your contacts with terrorists and advise you to refrain from escalation.” And in this context, the last point is important.
✅Is there a Russian connection to Hamas’s attack on Israel? Yes and no. It is stupid to reject public contacts with the Palestinians, since Moscow has been working closely in this field since the times of the Soviet Union. Moreover, the emergence of the state of Israel was the result of the coincidence of geopolitical interests of the USA and the USSR.
If we talk about today's attack, it is easy to guess that it is beneficial for Russia as a factor in diverting the attention of the world community from the Ukrainian crisis. Less attention to Ukraine means less help to Kyiv, making it easier for Russia itself to fight. Did Russia supply weapons to the Palestinians? Over the past two years, no, but weapons production technologies have been transferred. There was also financial assistance to the Palestinians, which since the beginning of 2023 has exceeded a billion dollars.
The role of our ally Iran is much more important - Tehran was just transferring weapons and training fighters with their subsequent transportation to the Gaza Strip through Egyptian territory. The Hamas operation, according to our data, was coordinated and worked out not only with our special services, but also with the Iranian Intelligence.
Hamas leaders may expect the conflict that they have ignited to expand to include other Palestinian militias as well as Iran and its so-called “Axis of Resistance.
Hamas may have based its current operation on Iranian leaders’ thinking about defeating Israel. Major General Hossein Salami—the commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—presented in August 2022 the most explicit articulation from an Iranian official yet on how to destroy Israel.[9] Salami downplayed the role of drones and missiles and instead argued for Lebanese Hezbollah and Palestinian militias to conduct more ground operations and urban combat inside Israel. Salami asserted that such activities would generate internal displacement and sow chaos, which would ultimately destabilize Israel and lead to its decline. Hamas’ decision to conduct a ground attack into Israel and how it went about doing so are noteworthy in this context. The group indiscriminately killed, abused, and abducted civilians in the towns its fighters reached and posted images and videos of the acts online, likely in part to instill terror among Israelis.[10]
Hamas may have sought to disrupt the US-led negotiations to normalize ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
The United States and its allies must remain vigilant against the danger that Iran and its partners may seek to expand the crisis caused by the Hamas attacks on Israel and must avoid the tendency to become narrowly focused on Gaza and the immediate Israeli response to this attack. Iran has been pursuing an offensive strategy in the Middle East aimed at expelling the United States, among many other things, for years, as CTP has previously assessed.[12] The October 7 Hamas attack could be a part of that larger effort.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-edition-october-7-2023
https://twitter.com/AmbJohnBolton/status/1710748273273618734
Moh Heidari: The timing of increased attacks against Israel and other states directly correlates with high-level meetings between Islamic Republic regime and groups like Hamas and PIJ. This suggests that IR’s foreign policy is keenly aimed at regional destabilization through its proxies.
According to the article published by @criticalthreats based on reports by the Islamic Regime's new agency ISNA and Tasnim back in June 2023, “Islamic Regime's leaders met with senior Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and Hamas officials in Tehran. PIJ Secretary General Ziyad al Nakhalah met several Islamic Republic regime's officials, including President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, and Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Secretary Rear Admiral Ali Akbar Ahmadian, on June 17-20. A Hamas delegation led by Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh similarly visited Tehran and met with Raisi and Ahmadian on June 19-20. These meetings follow increasingly frequent Islamic Regime calls for armed resistance against Israel in the West Bank and a concurrent increase in kinetic activity in the West Bank, as CTP previously reported. Tasnim News Agency published a report on June 20 criticizing the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) ground forces capabilities, suggesting Islamic Regime intention to exploit this perceived weakness. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Hossein Salami previously described in August 2022 plans to stoke civil unrest in the West Bank and conduct ground operations against Israeli security forces. In addition to using Palestinian militias to impose military pressure on Israel, CTP previously assessed that Islamic Regime used its influence over these militias to distract Israel from IRGC military transports in eastern Syria.”
As we just observed, High-level meetings between Islamic Republic regime officials and groups like Hamas is followed by escalations in terrorist attacks on Israel, pointing to a level of coordination and strategic planning. Islamic Regime leverages its influence over groups like Hamas to push its own geopolitical agenda, aiming to create disruptions or provocations that serve its strategic interests.
Islamic Regime's foreign policy, particularly its support for terrorist organizations like Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), has far-reaching implications beyond the Middle East. Recent attacks on Israel outlines the global risks posed by Islamic Regime's activities.
The Islamic Regime's sponsored network has global reach, with potential impacts stretching from Europe to South America.
Considering the predictability in Islamic Republic regime's actions, there is a timely opportunity for proactive countermeasures including strengthening intelligence-sharing mechanisms, initiating preemptive attack to destroy the security and militia apparatus of the regime to help Iranian people to take over the streets and change their regime with a secular democratic government that will be in peace with Israel, its Arab neighbors and the whole world. Cutting off the snake head in Tehran is the only way to eliminate the escalating threats.
Palestinian militias in Gaza responded to calls from Hamas to join in fighting against Israeli security forces on October 8. Hamas and its militant wing, Al Qassem Brigade, called on fellow Palestinian militias and members of the Axis of Resistance to join in its fight against Israel on October 7 following its ground incursion into Israel from Gaza.[1] Palestinian militias quickly pledged their support in fighting against Israeli security forces and clashed with Israeli security forces at border points and within Israeli territory.[2] Most clashes between Palestinian militias and Israeli security forces have been concentrated in southern Israel with Hamas reporting that it rotated new forces into Israeli territory to continue the fight against Israeli security forces on October 8.[3]
The Al Qassem Brigade clashed with Israeli security forces in Sufa Kibbuts, Holeit Kibbuts, Ofakim, Sderot, Yad Mordechai, Kfar Azza, Kissufim, Be’eri military post, and Ezre in southern Israel on October 7 and 8.[4] The brigade also conducted two separate rocket attacks on Sderot and Ashkelon of 100 rockets each, according to the group's Telegram channel.[5] Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) also fought against Israeli security forces with the Al Qassem Brigade in several towns in southern Israel.[6]
PIJ backfilled Hamas’s Al Qassem Brigade in Israel's South District on October 8, which allowed the Al Qassem Brigade fighters to rest and refit. Hamas Spokesperson Abu Ubaida reported that Hamas rotated new forces into Israeli territory to continue the fight against Israeli security forces in a statement on October 8.[7] The Al Qassem Brigade appears to be the most active Palestinian militia operating in the vicinity of Gaza.
Non-Iranian affiliated Palestinian militias also supported the offensive. The Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade conducted rocket strikes into Israeli territory on October 8.[8] The brigade previously coordinated attacks with Hamas and PIJ in 2008.[9] The Popular Resistance Committee's military wing claimed it used one-way attack drones to attack Israeli targets.[10] ISW cannot independently verify either group's claim.
Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and Palestinian militias also conducted attacks on Israeli positions from south Lebanon and the West Bank, respectively, which could expand the war to a second front.
details: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-8-2023
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-8-2023
ISW: Iran Update, October 9, 2023
Hamas is expanding its incursions into southern Israel as Palestinian militias in the West Bank and Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) clash with Israeli security forces in the northern province of the country. The situation could expand the war to a second front.
Members of the Axis of Resistance have issued threats that may lead the war between Israel and Palestinian militias to expand into the region
The Iranian regime is categorically denying Iran’s involvement in Hamas’s ground and air attack against Israel.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) deployed forces to the southwestern Syrian border on October 9, however. Iran has built up a large military footprint in Syria to include weapons storage facilities, headquarters, and barracks to house its affiliated militias. The Iranian and LH-directed deployments are consistent with the scenario in which the Gaza War expands into a multi-front war surrounding Israel.
Iran instructed the IRGC in eastern Syria to deploy militants to Quneitra Province on October 9.[26] The IRGC transferred 50 foreign fighters to Damascus on October 9 who are capable of using anti-aircraft missiles and rockets.[27]
An IRGC officer oversaw the deployment of Syrian Arab Army and IRGC deployments to the border strip with Israeli territory from Sayyida Zeinab which Iran uses as an operational headquarters.[28] The LH Radwan Unit, which is a special unit focused on infiltrating Israeli territory, arrived in Syria to spread out along the border with Israel as well.[29]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-9-2023
Incursions by Hamas into southern Israel have slowed since October 9. Palestinian militias in Gaza are using drones and rockets to strike towns in northern and southern Israel.
The Lions’ Den—a West Bank-based Palestinian militia—mobilized supporters to hold marches and engage in small arms clashes with Israeli security forces. Hamas is calling on its supporters in the West Bank to storm Jerusalem on October 13.
Lebanese Hezbollah fired missiles, including anti-tank munitions, at Israeli security forces in northern Israel.
Members of Iran's Axis of Resistance have articulated the thresholds at which they would intervene in the war against Israel. The top leadership from Iranian-backed Iraqi militias Kataib Seyyed ol Shohada, Ashab al Kahf, Asaib Ahl al Haq, Kataib Hezbollah, and the Badr Organization threatened to strike US targets if the United States intervenes in Hamas’ war with Israel.[29]
Head of the Iranian-backed Badr Organization Hadi al Ameri threatened to attack US forces if the United States intervenes in the war to support Israel. Ameri’s statement came after the United States announced it will send a carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean Sea to support Israel and will supply Israeli forces with military equipment and ammunition.[30]
An Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry official warned on October 9 that Iran would give a “devastating response” if Israel hit Iranian territory by attacking from Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen—implicitly drawing in actors from Iran's Axis of Resistance.[31]
>
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-11-2023
Iran Update, October 12, 2023
Hamas continued rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel but reduced the rate of these attacks.
Small arms clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces increased slightly across the West Bank, as Palestinian militias try to stoke conflict there.
CTP-ISW recorded three rocket strikes into Israeli territory from Lebanon.
Unidentified Iranian officials implicitly threatened to direct proxy attacks against US forces in Iraq and Syria if the United States re-freezes Iranian financial assets abroad.
Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian is conducting a diplomatic tour to Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria, possibly to coordinate politically with senior leaders in the Axis of Resistance.
Iran is conducting a diplomatic campaign to unite Muslim countries against Israel.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-12-2023
Iran Update, October 13, 2023
Hamas continued conducting rocket attacks into Israel at a lower rate of fire compared to previous days. The group also urged Palestinian civilians to remain in place in response to Israeli calls for civilians to evacuate the northern Gaza Strip.
Palestinian militants clashed with Israeli security forces across the West Bank at a higher rate, which is consistent with Hamas’ call for escalation.
The Iranian regime is messaging that US and Israeli actions could expand the war beyond Israel and the Palestinian territories while trying to intensify violence against Israel in the West Bank.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-13-2023
Hamas continued its ground and rocket attacks into Israel, primarily southern Israel. Palestinian militants are continuing limited attempts to infiltrate southern Israel via land and sea.
Clashes in the West Bank between Israeli forces and Palestinian militias decreased after peaking on October 13. Hamas remains committed to expanding the war to the West Bank, however.
Lebanese Hezbollah claimed attacks on the IDF for the second consecutive day as part of its ongoing harassment of Israeli forces. LH messaging indicates that the group will conduct additional attacks against Israeli forces in the coming days. Hamas published messages on October 14 boasting about its anti-armor capabilities and defensive preparations.[7] LH-affiliated al Mayadeen similarly published remarks from an unspecified Palestinian militant stating that Palestinian militias have a comprehensive defense plan for the Gaza Strip.[8] The militant also stated that the militias have enough manpower and weapons to fight the IDF for months in the Gaza Strip. Below are some of the factors that Hamas could exploit in fighting the IDF in the Gaza Strip.
Hamas maintains around 480 kilometers of tunnels under the strip.[9] The Washington Institute for Near East Policy wrote that “Hamas has had 15 years to prepare a dense ‘defense in depth’ that integrates subterranean, ground-level, and aboveground fortifications.”[10] Hamas could use these tunnels to quickly maneuver around the battlespace and facilitate the movement of fighters and weapons.
Hamas has manufactured and used Iranian-designed explosively formed penetrators (EFP) in the Gaza Strip since 2007.[11] Hamas could use EFPs to constrain the movement of the IDF in the urban environment and threaten Israeli troops. Iran exported EFPs to its proxy and partner militias in Iraq as late as 2004, which these militias then used extensively in their attacks on US servicemembers in Iraq.[12]
Iran and elements of its Axis of Resistance are messaging that the Hamas-Israel war could expand geographically into a multi-front conflict. CTP-ISW is closely monitoring the situation to forecast whether such a scenario is becoming more or less likely.
Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abdollahian traveled to Qatar, likely to meet with Hamas leadership and discuss Iranian financial assets with Qatari officials.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-14-2023
Iran Update, October 15, 2023
Palestinian militias continued drone and indirect fire attacks into Israel, primarily southern Israel. CTP-ISW did not record any reports of infiltrations or small arms clashes in southern Israel.
The rate of small arms clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants has continued to fall after peaking on October 13.
LH expanded its campaign against Israeli forces along the Israel-Lebanon border in terms of pace, location, and actors involved. The IDF spokesperson stated that Iran has instructed LH to escalate against Israel and thereby impose pressure on the IDF while it prepares for ground operations into the Gaza Strip.
The IDF conducted an airstrike on the Aleppo International Airport, marking the second time that the IDF has struck this location since the war began on October 7.
Iran and elements of its Axis of Resistance are messaging that the Hamas-Israel war could expand geographically into a multi-front conflict. CTP-ISW is closely monitoring the situation to forecast whether such a scenario is becoming more or less likely.
Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abdollahian met with senior Hamas and Qatari officials during an official visit to Doha.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-15-2023
Iran Update, October 16, 2023
Palestinian militias continued drone and indirect fire attacks into Israel, primarily southern Israel, on October 16. The rate of small arms clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants dropped slightly on October 16 after peaking on October 13.
Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian warned on October 15 and 16 that a multi-front war against Israel is becoming more likely and that Iranian-backed militias may take preemptive actions against Israel in the “coming hours.”
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is trying to improve its operational security in eastern Syria likely as part of an effort to move advanced military systems into Syria and Lebanon. 250-500 Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces arrived in Syria and Lebanon on October 16.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-16-2023
Iran Update, October 17, 2023
Palestinian militias continued indirect fire into Israel on October 17, attacking civilian and military targets.
The rate of small arms clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants in the West Bank remained low after peaking on October 13.
Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh called for mobilization in the West Bank following an explosion at a hospital in Gaza.
CTP-ISW recorded 10 attacks from Lebanon into Israeli territory on October 17, including seven against military targets. LH activity on Israel’s northern border creates opportunities for further operations against Israel.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reiterated what other senior Iranian officials are saying about the Hamas-Israel war during a speech.
Senior IRGC commanders are framing Hamas’ al Aqsa Flood operation as a prelude to future attacks on Israel.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-17-2023
Iran Update, October 18, 2023
Palestinian militias continued indirect fire into Israel from the Gaza Strip. Palestinian militias targeted 21 IDF military positions with mortars and rockets in Southern Israel.
The rate of clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces in the West Bank expanded by 470 percent.
CTP-ISW recorded 20 Attacks from Lebanon into Israeli territory, which is double the number of attacks recorded on October 17.
Two Iranian-backed Iraqi militias conducted separate attacks on US forces stationed at the al Harir airbase and Ain al Asad airbase in Iraq.
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq established the al Aqsa Joint Operations Room in support of Hamas’ al Aqsa Flood operation.
Iranian officials and media are blaming the United States and Israel for the explosion at the al Ahli hospital in the Gaza Strip and warning about the potential expansion of the conflict as a result.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-18-2023
Palestinian militias continued indirect fire from the Gaza Strip into Israel. Palestinian militias targeted 12 IDF military positions with indirect fire and ATGM in southern Israel. An Israeli journalist indicated that Hamas is also trying to attack natural gas rigs in the Mediterranean Sea.
Clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces in the West Bank may increase on October 20. Hamas called for protests in support of the Gaza Strip across all cities and towns in the West Bank then, as part of Hamas’ effort to expand fighting against Israel to the West Bank.
CTP-ISW recorded 13 attacks from Lebanon into Israeli territory, which is creating opportunities for further attacks into Israel. LH is allowing Palestinian militias to continue attacks from southern Lebanon into Israel.
Iranian-backed Iraqi militants in Syria conducted three attacks using one-way drones and rockets against US military positions in Iraq and Syria, marking the second consecutive day of such attacks targeting US forces in the Middle East.
Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri held separate phone calls with his Russian and Qatari counterparts to discuss the Israel-Hamas war. [37] Bagheri warned that continued Israeli actions in the Gaza Strip could force “other actors,” including “resistance groups,” to engage in the conflict, echoing previous regime rhetoric about the possibility of conflict expansion since October 13.[38] Bagheri also called on the international community to take action to halt Israeli attacks into the Gaza Strip and on regional countries to disallow the transmission of American military equipment through their countries to Israel. Bagheri finally highlighted the American role in Israel's “criminal operations,” consistent with regime rhetoric since October 13.[39]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-19-2023
Iran Update, October 20, 2023
Palestinian militias continued indirect fire from the Gaza Strip into Israel on October 20. Hamas also released two American hostages held in Gaza, marking the first time Hamas has released any hostages since its October 7 attack into Israel.
Clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli security forces in the West Bank increased following Hamas calls for protests on October 18. The Israel-Hamas War may be driving Palestinian militia coordination in the West Bank.
Iranian-backed militants targeted US forces stationed at Baghdad International Airport (BIAP) and al Harir Air Base on October 20, marking the third consecutive day of attacks against US forces in the Middle East. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have threatened to continue attacks on US forces in the Middle East. .[34] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq - an umbrella group of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias - targeted US forces stationed at Al Harir Air Base in Iraqi Kurdistan on October 20 in a drone attack.[35] It claimed to have launched two drones targeting the air base and reported that both drones “hit their target.”[36] This is the fourth attack claimed by the Islamic Resistance of Iraq during the last three days.[37] Militants from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq targeted Al Harir Air Base and Ain al Asad in Iraq and the al Tanf Garrison and Conoco Mission Support Site in Syria on October 18 and 19.[38]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-20-2023
Iran Update, October 21, 2023
Palestinian militias continued indirect fire at their usual rate into Israel. These attacks and those throughout the war underscore the reality that the IDF is facing a loose coalition of several Palestinian militias rather than just Hamas.
Palestinian militants and Israeli forces continued to clash in the West Bank. Palestinian militants have increasingly used IEDs against Israeli forces since October 18.
Iranian-backed militants, including LH, conducted 11 attacks as part of its ongoing attack campaign targeting IDF radar and sensor sites and military targets, especially tanks. This campaign creates opportunities for further LH attacks into Israel and increases the risk of further escalation.
Israeli and LH officials and media suggested that fighting could intensify around the Israel-Lebanon border in the coming days, especially if the IDF conducts ground operations into the Gaza Strip.
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—conducted two separate one-way drone attacks on US positions in Iraq, marking the fourth consecutive day of attacks targeting US forces in the Middle East. Iranian-backed KH spokesperson Jaafar al Hussein announced that attacks on US forces will continue and at a higher pace. These attacks are part of the Iranian-led effort to deter the United States from providing meaningful support to Israel.
Iranian state media is continuing to push counter-narratives in response to the present Western and Israeli discourse.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-21-2023
Iran Update, October 22, 2023
Palestinian militias continued attacks at their usual rate from the Gaza Strip into Israel. Palestinian militias increased their targeting of the Israel Defense Forces in these attacks, likely as part of their preparations to defend against a possible Israeli ground operation.
Clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces in the West Bank dropped by roughly half.
Iranian-backed militants, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted 17 attacks as part of an ongoing attack campaign against Israeli forces and assets.
Iranian leaders have reached a consensus approving limited cross-border Lebanese Hezbollah attacks into Israel, according to Reuters. This report and others indicate that Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah are coordinating a carefully calibrated escalation to draw Israeli attention away from the Gaza Strip.
The Israel Defense Forces Air Force conducted airstrikes on the Damascus and Aleppo international airport runways. The Israeli Foreign Affairs Ministry indicated that the airstrikes in Syria are part of an Israeli effort to prevent Iran from moving weapons into Syria and/or opening a front against Israel from there.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani arrived in Syria to monitor Iranian-backed militias on the Israel-Syria border, according to Israeli media. Ghaani previously warned Syrian President Bashar al Assad that Iran intends to use Syria as a second front if the war expands.
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—conducted a one-way drone attack on US forces at Ain al Asad air base in Iraq, marking the fifth consecutive day of attacks targeting US forces in the Middle East. These attacks are part of the Iranian-led effort to deter the United States from providing meaningful support to Israel.
The Houthi prime minister said that the Houthis will target Israeli ships in the Red Sea if Israel continues operations in the Gaza Strip after meeting with Palestinian militia officials in Sanaa, Yemen.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-22-2023
Iran Update, October 23, 2023
Palestinian militias continued attacks at their usual rate from the Gaza Strip into Israel while IDF airstrikes targeted Palestinian militant groups affiliated with Hamas in Gaza.
Militants in southern Lebanon and Iranian-backed militants, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted nine attacks as part of an ongoing attack campaign targeting IDF radar and sensor sites and military targets. The IDF also intercepted two drones traveling from Lebanese territory north of Haifa.
The Islamic Resistance of Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—may have expanded the locations of its attacks against US forces in Syria.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-23-2023
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