Posted on 10/08/2022 1:05:38 PM PDT by nuconvert
Iranian Regime national tv Channel One hacked about an hour ago. During a broadcast of Khamenie speech, a red crosshair appeared over his face and chanting of Women. Life. Freedom. There was writing to the side saying "Rise up. Join us". Also 4 photos at the bottom of the screen of young people killed and additional writing: "The blood of our youth is dropping from your paws".
Also, there was a huge banner in the middle of Tehran highway today that read: We are no longer afraid of you. We will fight.
Also, attempted attack on IRI ambassador in Denmark. Her bodyguard was stabbed. Diplomatic Security intervened before the attacker could stab the ambassador.
The Iranian regime is continuing efforts to dissuade Iranian citizens from celebrating Chahar Shanbeh Souri to forestall potential protests on that holiday.
Iranians traditionally celebrate Chahar Shanbeh Souri—the last Wednesday of the Persian calendar year—by gathering in streets and jumping over fires. The regime fears that the combination of celebratory gatherings, fires, and a general lively atmosphere on this holiday will create an environment conducive to unrest. Friday prayer leaders throughout Iran used their sermons on March 10 to discourage celebrations for Chahar Shanbeh Souri. Tehran Interim Friday Prayer Leader Ahmad Khatami warned Iranians during his sermon that many people have “lost their lives, eyes, and limbs” while celebrating Chahar Shanbeh Souri.[1] Khatami added that this holiday is an “unwise custom” and called on Iranian youth to listen to his “heartfelt speech.”[2]
Sanandaj Friday Prayer Leader Mamosta Faegh Rostami separately warned that Iranians should not allow the “fleeting pleasures” of Chahar Shanbeh Souri to cause a “lifetime of regret” during his sermon.[3] Abadan Friday Prayer Leader Abdol Hossein Ghobishavi additionally called on parents to “manage” their children on Chahar Shanbeh Souri, echoing Law Enforcement Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Reza Radan’s warning to parents on March 7 that they must control their children's “enthusiasm” during this holiday. This coordinated rhetoric from Friday prayer leaders suggests that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his inner circle are directing this messaging campaign. Friday prayer leaders receive guidance for the content of their Friday sermons from the Office of the Supreme Leader. The regime's continuing efforts to prevent Chahar Shanbeh Souri festivities validates CTP’s previous assessment that the regime is using the recent chemical attacks to set conditions to securitize the country ahead of major national holidays.[4]
The regime's calls to not celebrate Chahar Shanbeh Souri may be part of a broader campaign to Islamize Iranian society. Chahar Shanbeh Souri and Nowrouz—the Iranian New Year that follows Chahar Shanbeh Souri—both have Zoroastrian origins. The regime has historically tolerated—but not enthusiastically endorsed—celebrations of these holidays, especially Chahar Shanbeh Souri. Regime officials also are likely criticizing Chahar Shanbeh Souri in order to achieve their short-term goal of preventing protests on this holiday. Downplaying the significance of this holiday is in line with the regime's longstanding effort to Islamize Iranian society. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has previously explicitly called for Iran to become more Islamic. The third and fourth steps of Khamenei’s “five steps of the revolution” are to “establish an Islamic state” and “establish an Islamic country.”[5]
Prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid continued to hold the regime responsible for the poisoning campaign and suggested that the aim of the campaign was essentially to Taliban-ize Iran.
Iran and Saudi Arabia reestablished bilateral relations—seven years after severing diplomatic ties in 2016.
At least two protests occurred in two cities across one province.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-10-2023
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaharshanbe_Suri
Tuesday night 14MAR2023
Iranian authorities are after these girls to arrest them for the crime of dancing in international women’s day. In the eyes of Islamic republic, these girls are master criminals for showing their hair, happiness and dancing. That is why school girls are being the target of chemical attacks. Be our voice and Let’s end gender apartheid regime together.
https://twitter.com/AlinejadMasih/status/1634195799482531840
video
Iran Crisis Update, March 13, 2023
The Iranian regime is preparing to deploy its security services to deter and likely crack down on the planned demonstrations during the upcoming Iranian holidays.
Student poisonings occurred in Iranian provinces that saw significant protest activity during the Mahsa Amini protest movement.
Iranian public figures continue to suggest that the regime or regime-adjacent actors are in some way responsible for the poisoning campaign primarily targeting schoolgirls in recent months.
Regime efforts to suppress and silence political dissent may inadvertently intensify anti-regime sentiment among the Iranian public.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko met with Iranian officials in Tehran on March 13 to expand bilateral cooperation and bolster sanctions mitigations.
At least three protests occurred on March 11, ten protests on March 12, and 17 protests on March 13.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-13-2023
Exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi has called on Iranians to stage anti-regime rallies on the the ancient fire festival Tuesday to show that the protest movement is strong.
In a tweet on Monday, Reza Pahlavi said “the fire lit up in our hearts will never die”, asking people to take to streets to show anger at the clerical rulers once again.
Young activists’ groups had called since late February for three nights of protests, including the Charshanbeh Suri fire festival on Tuesday, preceding the Iranian New Year next week. “In the year that is coming to an end, hundreds of brave Iranians sacrificed their lives for the liberation of Iran. We are obliged to keep up on the path,” he added.
His statements come after young Iranians took to the streets in several cities Monday as the first night of protests. Young people use fire crackers and lit bonfires to mark the festival.
Abbas Ali Mohammadian, the police commander of Tehran has warned that “the police will use the capacity of mosques and public groups” to prevent the celebrations in the streets.
The fire festival is celebrated on the eve of the last Wednesday of the year, just before the New Year (Nowruz), which marks the day of the Spring Equinox. The festival dates to pre-Islamic times and for the same reason, its celebration is considered as a pagan practice by the clerics running the country since the Islamic Revolution in 1979.
https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/1635366309511958528
People living in the Ekbatan residential complex of #Tehran can be heard chanting slogans against #Iran’s Islamic Regime tonight. #IranRevolution
https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/1635349323318964224
video
People can be heard chanting “We don’t want Islamic Republic” while celebrating historic festival of Chaharshanbe Suri in Ekbatan residential town in western #Tehran tonight. #Iran’s Islamic Regime is scared of this festival & they have deployed their forces to suppress people.
video
https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/1635700710292455427
Tonights Iranians are burning images and banners of dictator supreme leader of #Iran’s Islamic Regime during historic festival of Chaharshanbe Suri. This video is recorded in Ekbatan residential town in western #Tehran tonight:
https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/1635700311540084736
They came out to mark the ancient Iranian annual fire festival and used the occasion to vent their anger at security forces.
Iran Crisis Update, March 14, 2023
The Iranian government is prioritizing mandatory veiling amidst poor economic conditions, recent student poisonings, and heightened protest activity.
Protesters escalated against the regime on March 14.
At least 20 protests occurred in 14 cities across eight provinces.
Some regime officials are continuing to deny that the recent attacks on Iranian school girls were poisonings.
Iran and Bahrain could be considering normalizing their relations following the Iran-Saudi Arabia rapprochement.
Iranian proxy Badr-affiliated Iraqi officials rhetorically targeted Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani for his handling of security operations in Diyala, likely to deter him from interfering in Badr operations in Diyala.
Iran deployed proxy forces along the Al Mayadin-Abu Kamal segment of the Route Four highway likely to improve local operational security conditions.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-14-2023
Iran Crisis Update, March 15, 2023
Hardline officials are promoting conservative reforms, which will likely generate additional calls for political change in Iran.
Four protests occurred in four cities across three provinces.
Information and Communication Technology Minister Issah Zahreh Pour confirmed reports of a country-wide, and hour-long internet disruption recorded on March 15.
Supreme National Security Council-aligned Nour News Agency reported that Secretary Ali Shamkhani will travel to Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates to meet with Emirati National Security Advisor Tahnoon bin Zayed al Nahyan on March 16.
An unidentified person crossed into Israel from Lebanon and detonated a roadside bomb outside Megido Prison, approximately five kilometers from the northern West Bank border on March 13.
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani ordered Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) to conduct raids in Al Khalis, Diyala Province, Iraq on March 15.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-15-2023
Iran Crisis Update, March 16, 2023
Some Iranian leaders are likely concerned about their ability to convince the population that the national Iranian identity is inextricably interwoven with the regime’s religious ideology.
Iranian officials and state media have scaled back their discussion on the recent student poisonings—an unusual response to this recent, large-scale security crisis.
Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Secretary Ali Shamkhani visited the UAE—the most senior Iranian visit to the country since President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visited in 2007.
At least five protests occurred in five cities across two provinces.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-16-2023
Iran Crisis Update, March 17, 2023
Some Iranian leaders continue to refuse to make the necessary changes that will meaningfully address popular frustrations.
Some regime officials acknowledge that the regime has not resolved Iran’s economic problems.
Prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid intends to normalize public discussions in Iran about creating a more inclusive political system.
At least one protest occurred in one city and one province.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-17-2023
Iran Crisis Update, March 20, 2023
Iranian security leaders have announced in recent days that they will resume enforcing the mandatory hijab law with a confrontational approach. The security leaders directing this more confrontational approach may have won the intra-regime debate against more moderate figures over how to enforce the hijab law.
Anti-regime outlets have published purported internal regime meeting notes detailing observations consistent with CTP’s previous assessments about intra-regime fractures and major problems within the security services during the Masha Amini protests.
Various regime actors continue to portray the economy differently.
At least two protests occurred on March 18, three protests on March 19, and five protests on March 20.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-20-2023
Iran Crisis Update, March 21, 2023
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei shut down intra-regime debates about political reform to address protester grievances and instead confined these debates to the economy during a Nowrouz speech. Khamenei implied that the economy should be the primary topic of intra-regime debate.
Several regime elements have reflected Khamenei’s uncompromising stance toward sociocultural issues in recent days.
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf may be testing the rhetorical boundaries that Khamenei identified.
At least three protests occurred in three cities across three provinces.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-21-2023
Members of IRGC’s Quds Force are weary of the fight with Israeli forces at Golan Heights and are selling military intel to Israel, a recently-leaked document shows.
Minutes of a meeting of senior clerics and Revolutionary Guard commanders with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, leaked to media last week, suggest that the economic and political situation in Iran has made the Islamic Republic's forces sell information about Quds Force operations to Israel, and that more and more elements are seeking to leave the battlefield in Syria and get jobs and positions inside the country.
The 44-page document contains citations of remarks by 45 IRGC commanders and clerics at a meeting at Khamenei’s office on January 3 on the anniversary of the death of Quds Force commander, Qassem Soleimani, who was killed by the US three years ago.
Almost all the participants spoke about the current wave of antiregime protests that has engulfed the country since September last year. The meeting, held more than three months into the protests, focused on the negative impact of the protests on the morale of forces under the command of the IRGC and their burn-out, with several offering anecdotal accounts of insubordination.
The document indicates that officials are shocked by the large scale and duration of the protests and admit that they do not have the means to quell the uprising. The participants also acknowledged massive defections and desertions among the military forces and clerics, mainly due to the unrelenting economic woes as well as in protest to the heavy-handed crackdown by security forces and harsh sentences by the judiciary.
Rahim No’i Aghdam, who served as the commander of IRGC’s Zeynab operational headquarters in Syria, said during the meeting that the Quds Force “faces many problems” in the border areas of Israel and the Golan Heights. He mentioned Israel's “non-stop” bombings and “inability of quick access to the supplies of Iran's allied forces in this region” as some of the problems, adding that economic hardships and the ongoing protests have also led to “ideological issues and family problems” among the ranks of the forces.
He said that “leaks of operational plans” has reduced the edge of Iranian forces against Israelis, adding that “pre-emptive attacks by Israeli forces in five operations showed us that the issue of infiltration... and the forces’ unwillingness to remain at Israel's borders” have made them do “unimaginable” things, such as selling military intel.
No’i Aghdam added that if the Islamic Republic loses the areas that it has gained “with years of effort” outside its borders, “a practical threat to the Islamic Republic regime will not be unimaginable.”
Other attendees also talked about the desertions and disobedience within their forces, with Abdollah Haji-Sadeghi, Khamenei’s representative in the IRGC, saying that “there is no doubt about desertions.” He said that different security organizations of the country have reported varying figures, from 12 percent to 68 percent of desertions.
Khodarahm Sarani, the IRGC’s commander in the city of Zahedan — the provincial capital of Sistan-Baluchestan province that is home to Iran's Sunni Baluch minority of up to two million – said the demands of the people there are basic such as water and basic necessities. He added that remarks by their Sunni leader Mowlavi Abdolahamid have united the residents, making them leave aside their sectarian differences and focus on popular demands.
Sarani then made a direct attack on the secretary of Iran's security council Ali Shamkhani who was present at the meeting. “When an officer under my command comes to my office and shows the watch worn by Mr. Shamkhani’s son and tells me that the price of this watch is equal to four years of my service in the armed forces, how can I answer?”
“We cannot always blame the problems on the enemy, yes, we are under sanctions, but the country's income is not low. If there are problems in the country, then how come these problems do not show themselves at the level of military commanders,” he added.
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202303200645
Leaked Document Reveals Questions About Role Of Khamenei’s Son
During the meeting, Yadollah Bouali, the Revolutionary Guard’s commander in the southwestern province of Fars, criticized interventions by the Mojtaba Khamenei and forces under his command, saying that such measures disrupt the security structure of the country. He added that changes at senior level positions based on the opinions of a small group can be “disastrous.”
However, several other commanders defended Mojtaba Khamenei and the role he plays in the country’s security.
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202303226935
In one case, Colonel Ehsan Khorshidi, the coordinating deputy of the IRGC in Alborz Province said that a few conscripts and a lieutenant stole military’s food supplies which were then distributed in the poverty-stricken neighborhoods of Karaj, the capital of the province. “Feeling sympathy with the people is not a small matter. This time it was the food supplies of the division. What if next time it is the weapons they distribute?” he asked.
He also pointed out that many among the families of the forces had been involved in the protests and had even been arrested. “This morning at least six senior officers contacted me to ask me to request my help to get backing from the commander of the force in the matter of the arrest of their family members.”
According to the document, Khamenei said the judiciary chief should order leniency in the cases of arrested IRGC staff’s family members.
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202303192652
Iran Crisis Update, March 22, 2023
Law Enforcement Command (LEC) Spokesperson Brigadier General Saeed Montazer al Mahdi announced that the LEC will deploy its special units across Iran during the Nowrouz celebrations.[11] The LEC Special Units are a highly trained, anti-riot force that the regime uses heavily in its protest crackdowns.[12] The LEC spokesperson justified the deployment of special units, saying they are needed to maintain the public peace during the Nowrouz celebrations. These deployments suggest that the regime is concerned about the possibility of protests erupting during the holiday and may thus be preparing to confront potential unrest. Many Iranians take time off from work and travel across the country to visit family in their homes during Nowrouz. The LEC separately issued a statement warning women to “observe chastity and the hijab” during Ramadan on March 22.[13] The LEC stated that the owners of commercial units should pay special attention to its message, suggesting that the LEC is placing some responsibility for citizens’ compliance with Islamic customs on these individuals.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-22-2023
Iran Crisis Update, March 23, 2023
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has trapped the Iranian regime by focusing public and government attention on improving the economy—an issue he does not yet appear willing to seriously address.
The regime’s intransigence on both economic and sociocultural issues will likely fuel greater instability and unrest.
CTP did not observe any protest activity, possibly due to the Nowrouz holiday.
Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova announced that Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian will travel to Moscow to meet with Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov on March 29.[25] Zakharova stated that the two ministers will discuss Iran’s nuclear negotiations and mutual cooperation with respect to Syria, Afghanistan, the Caucasus, and the Caspian Sea.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-23-2023
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