1) Shove it, sideways. This is literal handwaving. "Likely to" is not science, but conjecture. This happens to be the best data available.
2) If you want to play it your way, recall that 1% or less or adverse events are reported to VAERS. So that means the side effects in the general public are vastly greater than the chart above. And what a lying sack of Pfauci you are for trying "First, VAERS reporting for almost everything is going to be elevated because we've given hundreds of million of shots." Ever hear of mandatory pediatric vaccinations? VAERS encompasses those, and they're still dwarfed by the clot shots--over a year and a half or so, compared to 30 years or whatever. You lose again, troll-boi. Source: https://openvaers.com/images/r18hs017045-lazarus-final-report-20116.pdf Suck it dry. Whatever you're getting paid to spread propaganda, the person paying you is getting ripped off.
OK. Despite what the authors of the paper say let's assume this really is a baseline of all the SAD deaths (66 per year? Really?).
What's the number of SAD deaths reported in those same databases post-vaccines?
If you're going to compare against a baseline you need to use the same sources used to establish that baseline.
For all we know there are fewer reported deaths than in prior years.
If this is the best data available I suggest refraining from making stupid claims about vaccine injuries. You can't back them up.