Seems they’re based on who the polling outfit wants to win. Richard Baris is supposed to be one of the better polsters but he won’t touch this Missouri race, much like Trump. I follow Baris on twitter and not once has he posted anything about this race except to laugh at Trump’s endorsement of ERIC.
There was a video someone posted with Baris and Robert Barnes talking about primaries yesterday and it cut off just as they were starting to talk about Missouri. I couldn’t find a longer one.