You need to check the labor participation rate.
I know what it is. I am included in that number. But I won’t be going back to work any time soon. There are tons of folks 62-67 who are included in the LPR but who retired and are not going back. Ever.
When there is a big demographic shift such as the one we are experiencing, the paradigm through which the numbers are read has to change as well.
It’s not 1986 any more.
reply: "You need to check the labor participation rate."
I respectfully disagree with using the labor participation rate for discussions like that. That's calculated as:
people working + people looking for work
------------------------------------------------------(divided by)
people age 16 or older not incarcerated, on disability or in military
Basically if you're old as dirt you're still counted as part of the "labor force" (you increase the divisor in the equation). Nobody in their right mind expects my mother in her 80's to get out and find a job. But as long as she's alive and stays retired she reduces the "labor force participation rate". As long as the many, many baby boomers keep retiring we'll keep having an even lower "labor force participation rate".
So use that metric for things like determining if the SS system is stable (enough workers still working and contributing for the SS to keep making payments to retirees). That's a valid use of the "labor force participation rate", at least how the gubment calculates it. But it shouldn't be used as a barometer of a healthy economy or if it should be easy for employers to find employees.
| Measure | Not seasonally adjusted | Seasonally adjusted | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2021 | Apr. 2022 | May 2022 | May 2021 | Jan. 2022 | Feb. 2022 | Mar. 2022 | Apr. 2022 | May 2022 | |
U-1 Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force | 3.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
U-2 Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force | 3.4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
U-3 Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (official unemployment rate) | 5.5 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 |
U-4 Total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers | 5.8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
U-5 Total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other persons marginally attached to the labor force, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force | 6.6 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.5 |
U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force | 9.7 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 10.1 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 7.1 |
NOTE: Persons marginally attached to the labor force are those who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for work. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule. Updated population controls are introduced annually with the release of January data. | |||||||||