WHAT ARE SIGNS OF AN IMPENDING RECESSION?
The clearest signal that a recession might be nearing, economists say, would be a steady rise in job losses and a surge in unemployment. As a rule of thumb, an increase in the unemployment rate of three-tenths of a percentage point, on average over the previous three months, has meant that a recession will eventually follow.
Powell has said the Fed’s goal was to raise rates to cool borrowing and spending so that companies would reduce their huge number of job openings. In turn, Powell hopes, companies won’t have to raise pay as much, thereby easing inflation pressures, but without significant job losses or an outright recession.
The MOST reliable recession indicator is the inverted yield curve, when the 2yr rises more and quicker than the 10 yr.
I don’t think it’s ever been wrong.