[Rusty0604]

The MOST reliable recession indicator is the inverted yield curve, when the 2yr rises more and quicker than the 10 yr.
I don’t think it’s ever been wrong.

[jennychase]

Inverted yield curves generally mean that investors foresee a recession and will compel the Fed to slash rates. Inverted curves often predate recessions. Still, it can take as long as 18 or 24 months for the downturn to arrive after the yield curve inverts. A short-lived inversion occurred this week, when the yield on the two-year Treasury briefly fell below the 10-year yield as it did temporarily in April. Many analysts say, though, that comparing the 3-month yield to the 10-year has a better recession-forecasting track record. Those rates are not inverting now.

[CottonBall]

Is that happening now?