Posted on 03/21/2022 2:59:23 PM PDT by tomd2
What do I have to do to sign up for Rumble?
Russia did not have a large enough force for an invasion nor did it have a big enough logistical tail to supply the force they did have. The invade needs 2x-4x the force the defender has because as he advances he needs to occupy and control the territory he is traveling over. He also needs to bring all his sh*t with him. The defender doesn’t need to bring his stuff. He already has it and every mile of road or rail or river the invader travels over becomes his to maintain adding even more logistical woes. Then at the point of the spear the invader needs more men and guns and maneuverability than the defender as well. The longer operations go on, particularly in a large country with bad roads, poor climate, and a lot of rivers, bridges, lakes, and bogs the tougher things get. While I still think the Russians will win I would not bet heavily on it. Putin should probably have consulted the ghost of Charles XII before invading Ukraine.
I do agree with you on the common needs for an invasion force, Putin probably didn’t have good information to begin with. His generals lied to him about the status of the troops and their equipment.
Putin also thought there was a larger support network in country than there actually was.
And there is no location in Ukraine which is that far from Russia proper. So the supply chains are not really that long. It’s getting past the really bad roads that Ukraine has because of years of government corruption. Once the dry season comes in May, the fields will be drivable by tanks.
there is also the fact that the vast majority of Ukrainian troops are situated against the Russian forces and they are steadily being surrounded and cut off from supply lines from the west. That is going to be the real end of the war.
I read back in the ‘80s that all Pentagon evaluations of the (then) Soviet military assumed that Murphy’s Law did not operate there. Not out of prudence, but because the Pentagon had to paint a grim picture to get money out of Congress.
I like to use this one:
"I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you."
Nothing.
Just click on the link:
https://rumble.com/vy11b1-the-destruction-of-armies-rather-than-the-capture-of-cities-live.html [2 hours]
And there is no location in Ukraine which is that far from Russia proper. So the supply chains are not really that long.
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Russia doesn’t have the logistics supply chain to go from the East Texas border to El Paso with trucks, tanks or troops.
Ukraine is ruffly the size of Texas.
Nice. I will put that in my “50 ways to insult people so it doesn’t become boring” book.
Tanks don’t run without fuel. Fuel does not get to tanks without trucks. Trucks don’t run without tires and roads and even more fuel. The roads must be protected. That requires lots of troops and control of the air. Manpads are taking out the close air cover and Javelins are taking out trucks and armored vehicles by the gross. How much is victory going to cost? My guess is too much to be worth it. Putin of course may not see it the same way, but he is spending political capital like there is no tomorrow and I doubt there is a payoff in the end.
As for the Ukrainians I doubt there is any reintegrating them into a Russian Empire Putin gravely miscalculated and that will have political costs. Without an ideology to fall back on failure sticks to the leader like spots on a hog. People can feel good about failing miserably for a “glorious cause” like socialism. It can justify all the pain, but failing miserably for Putin’s imperial ambitions...not so much.
[We dismounted and mounted the 24” tires. Some of the tires that were replaced were definitely Chinese junk.
We only mounted current production Goodyear, Bridgestone or Michelin tires,
What do you think the Russians are using for tires?]
Putin is massively at fault.
He started this nonsensical war
And you are entitled to that opinion. GG.
It’s based on fact. Look at what Putin has done to damage his country in the past 22 years of dictatorship.
He has subordinated all industry to the state, instead of focusing on the considerable human and material capital that Russia has, to improve the lot of Russians, he and his cronies robbed it blind for their superyachts. All the while leaving ordinary Russians sometimes even without indoor toilets
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