Maybe you could factor this unforeseen event into your reasonable scenario: The Dims do not own the Senate at the moment. They are down to 49 as a result of Sen. Lujan (NM) having a stroke which seems to have hit him pretty hard. They’re saying two months recovery. I’m doubting that since they also say he’s triple vaxxed. The Senator is only 49 yo and was in good health. Based on the published dope so far he appears to have less of a typical stroke and more of a closhot induced brain fog event. I don’t see him coming back. Even if he had a “ conventional” stroke he’s not coming back anywhere near 100%.
We have just crossed the 6 month threshold when the effects on the earliest clotshotters will start showing up-—in spades. There will be more events like this even in the gummint crowd.
That is the truth.
There are so many unknowns about future events or twists of fate that all we can do is make theories. Vaxed people falling ill/departing earth is one of the unknowns for sure.