“According to a CDC report from April 2021:
In 2020, approximately 3,358,814 deaths†occurred in the United States. From 2019 to 2020, the estimated age-adjusted death rate increased by 15.9%, from 715.2 to 828.7 deaths per 100,000 population. COVID-19 was reported as the underlying cause of death or a contributing cause of death for an estimated 377,883 (11.3%) of those deaths
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7014e1.htm“
A couple of notes.
Increase in age-adjusted death rate is 113.5 per 100,000 population.
There are (roughly, this is a ballpark figure for “rough and ready” conclusions) 350,000,000 people in the US.
So 350,000,000/100,000 = 350,000/100 = 3500 hundred thousands in the US.
So the increase in deaths in the US for that time frame is
113.5 x 3500 = 397, 250 (increase).
The % of that due to COVID (underlying or contributing)
is 11.3% of 397,250.
or just shy of 50,000 deaths — 44889.25.
One might make the case even more strongly by looking at the actual deaths by age cohort due to COVID.
I don’t have the link on me, but the CDC earlier showed that 78% of the dead from the coof, were over age 65, IIRC.
Or 22% of the deaths are working age (at max, discounting people under 18).
which works out to (combining with the 44889 above) 9875 people in the working population who died of the coof over and above the expected death rate.
This is not sufficient grounds to lock down the entire country and force hundreds of millions to get an experimental gene therapy.
Bear with me now, I’m still learning math
2019 is 15% less than 3,358,814 or 2019 was 2,824,763 total
15.9% increase equals 3,358,814 minus 2,824,763 or 534,051.
therefore, 15.9% or 534,051 = 100% of the increase
and 11.3% = 2/3’rds to 3/4’ths of the increase
common denominator 3 chosen: 11.3% / 15.9% = 2/3
2/3 x 534,051 = 356,312
common denominator 4 chosen: 11.3 / 15.9% = 3/4
3/4 x 534,051 = 400,528
which gives us a ballpark range that puts the CDC figure of 377K right in the middle and so makes sense
going further, 22% under age 64 x 377K = 82K or over 370/day
I understand your thousands thousands number, and I get how you got to 397,250
But I think where you tripped up is on not translating the percentages
so using your number of 397K x 3/4 = 298K and x 2/3 = 265K
then going with ballpark under 65 at 22% that would be 65K and 58.3K respectively, versus ‘my’ number of 82K. which is 10x your number.
yes?
As you know, I live in the land of groundhog day where every day is a lockdown of some sort for the last 18 months. As such, I am adamently adverse to locking down areas that have little spread.
However, I think a lot of apathy is expressed towards ‘the elderly’ deaths. Yes, they were the highest casualties last year, no doubt. (maybe not so true this year?) But does that make their deaths less significant? Do people lose their value when they hit 65 even while they still remain the main captains of industry and babysitters (and wallets) for their working (or not) sons and daughters? We ran into nursing homes to give them shots, wanted or not, conscious or not, because the HCW/first responders were terrified a patient would get them sick, but when it’s time for HCW/FRs to do the same, they balk at protecting the elderly that protected them, even throwing a fit over the ‘testing biweekly’ option while insisting kids get take on the burden that should be squarely on the shoulders of adults in a moral society. Whether those adults choose vaccination, monoclonals or staying away from crowds. I think we should value elderly deaths more and not excuse them with a wave of the hand as if we’re ‘normalizing’ death. jmo