Also for the record … I’m inclined to assume that the official government findings about any incident like this has zero credibility, and should be treated as anything ranging from wild speculation (at best) to deceptive propaganda (at worst).
For what it’s worth, the most plausible “shoot-down” scenario I had scene laid out in a speculative analysis of the incident DID involve an accident, but not and accidental MISSILE LAUNCH. This scenario — which I’m reciting from memory because it was posted here many years ago — included the following chain of events:
1. TWA Flight 800 departs from JFK and climbs as it head east toward Europe.
2. U.S. Navy is conducting “live-fire” exercises somewhere south of Long Island that night. This exercise may have involved other NATO vessels, which would add a lot of sensitivity to any incident that may have occurred with them.
3. The naval exercises that night involved the use of one or more drone missiles that were used as targets for the surface-to-air missiles being tested. One ship served as the launch platform for the drone(s), while a second ship miles away — perhaps even over the horizon — launched the SAM(s).
4. Flight 800 was supposed to be flying at an altitude of X thousand feet at that point in its eastbound flight. It was actually 5,000+ feet lower that night because it had to interrupt its climb to make way for a northbound flight into Providence, Rhode Island that was running behind schedule.
5. A drone is launched from one ship and reaches an altitude of 20,000+ feet. The SAM is launched from the other ship, climbs to 20,000+ feet, and mistakenly targets Flight 800 instead of the drone.
I’m sure there are plenty of holes in this theory. I’m sure I left some important details out, too. But I will say that I find this no less plausible than the cockamamie scenario fabricated by the U.S. government back then.
I can think of one off-hand. You would have to believe that the U.S. Navy is so God-awful stupid that it would conduct live fire exercises by shooting into one of the most densely travelled air corridors in the world. They really aren't that dumb.
Interesting thoughts. I believe the U.S. Navy was one of the few orgs that had the capability to do what happened. Since they were doing exercises in the vicinity at the time, I say 100% it was a Navy missile. Why would over 700 people lie? I saw the video before that hid it!
The Navy doesn’t run live-fire exercises in one of the most traveled shipping channels and commercial and general aviation areas in the country that is the Long Island Sound.
The vast majority of Navy missile tests that are conducted in (contiguous) US territorial and adjacent waters are in Point Magu on the west coast and White Sands, also on the west coast. I believe the only active missile test range on the east coast is located in Florida, the Eastern Test Range which is at Cape Canaveral. The Atlantic Test Range, located off the coast of Virginia, was once used as a missile test range. But, I’m not sure if it still is an active missile range (although it certainly hosts other live-fire tests).