Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

To: Red6

Your math is correct as far as it goes, but the Milky Way is not the entire universe. If we consider your probability to be accurate and look at 1,000 galaxies of similar size as the Milky Way, the probability of no life drops to about 18%.

Of course any calculation based on the Drake equation is suspect. The equation is a product of multiple probabilities, not all of which are well-known. IIRC there is at least one that could be anywhere between zero and one, meaning you can obtain pretty much any value you want from the equation. For example we have no clue what fraction of planets that develop life will develop intelligence, what fraction of intelligent species will develop communication means that we can detect, or even the fraction of planets with suitable conditions that will actually develop life. The value of the Drake equation is the consideration of the things that must happen for us to make contact, not in any actual calculation of the likelihood of that contact actually happening.


13 posted on 12/09/2020 11:42:22 AM PST by stremba
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies ]


To: stremba

I agree, but even then, we’re still at 82% “no” and not past the issue of distance (i.e. travel and/or communication).

While I like good scifi (very little out there), I tend to believe that time is linear and C is absolute.


18 posted on 12/10/2020 6:55:12 AM PST by Red6
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson