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To: grey_whiskers
http://www.battleground20.com/bg20-intelligence.html

Although I agree with their conclusion, their statistical analysis is sketchy. E.g.:

The sole anomaly arose around the most critical number: zero. Based on current tabulations, four states cluster around the zero, showing a victory margin of less than 1%. Four of four show Biden ahead: Georgia (0.2%), Arizona (0.5%), Pennsylvania (0.7%), and Wisconsin (0.7%). That heavy skew towards one side is statistically anomalous—occurring with probability less than 0.01 (one chance in 100). A quick check of the past four Presidential races (i.e., 2004-16) shows that the parties split close races evenly.
With four very close elections, it's basically a coin flip for which way each will go. There's a 1 in 16 chance that Biden would win all four, much larger than 1 in 100.
1,387 posted on 11/13/2020 9:58:26 AM PST by AZLiberty (As of Monday, May 18, at 9:30 am, I'm a U.S. citizen. And I VOTED!)
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To: AZLiberty

But it’s not a coin flip; you’re in effect taking the average of averages, which is a no-no.


1,394 posted on 11/13/2020 10:04:35 AM PST by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change with out notice.)
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