Posted on 10/09/2020 5:14:45 AM PDT by impimp
You mean the one used by every epidemiologist on Earth? And what did you replace it with?
"It only works if there is no such thing as tcell immunity from other coronaviruses. Herd immunity is actually 20-25%, not 60%."
Oh, right, you replaced it with pure speculation and guesswork. Got it. But are you sure it isn't 20%? Or maybe it's 10%? So many guesses! All of them wrong.
New York state is already at 26.4%. Their active case count is rising. Their 7-day average daily deaths are rising. They have not reached herd immunity. New Jersey is at 28.2% infected. Their cases are rising quickly and their 7-day average daily deaths are stable. Again, they have not reached herd immunity. Your guesswork is wrong. And wrong guesses and proclamations lead to unnecessary worry and fear. Your fairy tales of rainbows and sunshine where we reach herd immunity at 10% or 20% are just as damaging as the media and Democrats' narrative of this as an existential threat to humanity. Both are clearly wrong, so both inspire fear that we don't know what's really going on.
We do know what's really happening; each of you simply declines to acknowledge that reality, favoring a fantasy narrative that suits your particular purposes. They want to pretend the world is ending and it's all President Trump's fault. You want to pretend nothing is evening happening, even as people watch their friends, family, and neighbors dying in hospitals. Your fairy tale has changed significantly over the months as each month proves you wrong time and time again.
The reality isn't that scary, and the reality is a narrative that doesn't need to change repeatedly as it's proven wrong. Just stick to the facts and the consistency of the message and the knowledge that things aren't so bad and can't get but so bad with this will do more to reduce peoples' fears than any false narrative of rainbows and unicorns ever could.
“...You want to pretend nothing is evening happening, even as people watch their friends, family, and neighbors dying in hospitals...”
Except most of us have not had any friends, family, or neighbors die from this Wuhoo flu. In spite of all the fear porn this thing is a killer the same way other bad flu strains kill.
My father’s cause of death back in 1999 was listed has heart failure. He was recovering from the flu at the time. Nowadays he would have been a C19 stat.
Only one flu year in the history of the Unites States has killed more people and that was 1918. Seasonal flu kills an average of 36,000 people each year (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html).
It’s not sunshine and roses, it’s not a normal year for deaths (we’re at about 260,000 excess deaths this year), and it’s also not the end of humanity or a death sentence for those infected. The truth, as always, is in between the extremes. People have died and continue to die from it, but many of those deaths can be attributed to terrible policy decisions by (mostly) Democrat governors like Cuomo. And once President Trump’s Operation Warp Speed bears fruit (which is soon), we’ll see the whole thing come to an end. The reality isn’t that scary. We should be honest with ourselves and each other about it.
“...The truth, as always, is in between the extremes...”
Spoken like a true squish. The truth was not between Solzhenitsyn and Stalin. The truth was with Solzhenitsyn. And on this thread the truth is with the Impimp and not with the fearporn lockdown Nazis. Just look at Sweden as an example of clear anti-superstate thinking.
I’ve advocated for Sweden’s policy measures as a proper response for months, with the exception of taking additional steps to protect those in long term care facilities (a failure which the Swedish government themselves accept).
We’re not talking about policy here, but rather the simple numbers of this virus. It has an R0, which gives us a HIT, and it’s not the 10% that Impimp claimed it was July 13th, and it’s not the 20% Impimp claimed it was August 17th, and it’s not the 25% Impimp claims it is now. New York and New Jersey are both well above 25% infected with transmissions accelerating; not declining.
Point is that the truth isn’t that bad and it calms peoples’ fears to hear it, so we should tell it. Fairy tales are for children.
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