I looks at the lock down as "economic bleeding" to "help" the citizen patient because we know best. Wow, 21 century middle age bleeding...
Posted on 04/23/2020 8:44:21 PM PDT by Jayster
California is something of a test lab for herd immunity.
It’s population size and the large number of travelers from China make it unique in some ways. Unlike NY, as far as we know, Chinese were still entering California after the travel ban via Canada and Europe.
Fake News won’t forever be able to hide the reality that the virus was in California at least as early as November, possibly even October.
Where are all of the bodies piled up in the streets? What is the USNS Mercy doing?
Navin Gruesome’s fiefdom is probably the best argument for ending lockdown that we have.
Yep, we have enough numbers now to make educated guesses. Mine for California is a 0.077% CFR (Case Fatality Rate)...lower than the “regular flu” (CFR 0.096%-0.176%). This is based on several antibody studies showing a 4%-5% total population infection rate, I used 5%.
On the other hand if you do the whole USA you get a CFR of 0.304% (much higher than “regular flu”...almost 2x higher). N.Y. & N.J. skew the results much higher...5 million a day riding the subway probably not a good idea.
If you do the “48 state” math (w/o N.Y./N.J.) you get a CFR of about 0.158%...about the same as regular flu.
More antibody testing & time will tell.
It is. The daily briefings allow us to infer their bias. They are data driven, and what they don't have data to support, they ignore, which amounts to a specific assumption.
They assumed that the only people infected are the ones that test positive. If you are symptomatic but not tested, you are not infected. There is no data that you were infected.
Sometime in about the past ten days they reported that now that the peak seems to be manageable, they can move on to get data relating to this assumption, with that data being from antibody survey. Birx made sure to tell us that ramping this up will take a few weeks because the tests are not known trustworthy.
Fauci's best case assumption was the disease is ten times more deadly than flu. Take a not unusual flu season, 50,000 dead, and multiply by ten.
At any rate, that initial "no data, therefore assumed negative" assumption is being exposed in current news. Golly, more people were infected than we thought.
That’s incorrect....when did widespread testing take place there or anywhere in the USA, it happened after the the Virus became a problem, so social distancing was taken into consideration simply because the testing didn’t start until after social distancing was put in place....
You absolutely can extrapolate, other tests have been conducted in CA by Stanford University and NY State just completed a major series of tests which showed similar results to what the Doctor stated......
We can’t test everyone so a sample has to be used, the bigger the sample the better the results...
Here is Fauci in the March 24 briefing:
The second thing is, I just want to reiterate what Dr. Birx said about New York. It's a very serious situation. They've suffered terribly through no fault of their own. But what we're seeing now is that, understandably, people want to get out of New York. They're going to Florida. They're going to Long Island. They're going to different places.The idea, if you look at the statistics, it's disturbing. About one per thousand of these individuals are infected. That's about 8 to 10 times more than in other areas ...
About 1 per 1,000 in NYC is infected. That was Fauci's assumption a month ago. It was the working assumption of the entire group. Nobody disputed it. Policy was made and that assumption is a critical factor in the epidemic calculus.
Note too, the assumption that the rate of exposure or infection outside of NYC was between 1 in 8,000 and 1 in 10,000. And then that this germ, this one in 10,000 germ, that would multiply as people passed it between each other at a clip of each of those infected persons infrects a couple more, and before you know it, 1 in 50 has it, and then all hell breaks loose.
The model was not just a little bit off. It was wildly off, and now we know it.
And these clowns want to do global warming policy based on computer model predictions.
If you are trying to figure out whether 1 in 10,000 or 1 in 20,000 have somehting, it takes a lot of measurements to find those "rare" cases; and even more to narrow down the result to "where are we, in that range?"
But if the rate of incidence is 20-50%, THAT rate can be narrowed down with VERY high confidence with just a few measurements. The key is to truly randomize the measurements.
It doesn't take many flips of a coin to narrow down that the rate of heads is somewhere between 48 and 52%.
I guess when one is really hungry for something, and searches enough, that one will find something in the snow that looks kind of like a Tootsie Roll and decide to give it a try...
“California has a 0.03% rate of death from Covid19.
New York has a 0.01% rate of death from Covid19.
Norway has a 0.03% rate of death from Covid.
USA has a 0.13% rate of death from Flu.”
You are a sick liar, I hope you rot in hell.
New York State has 25,000 Covid19 dead out of 20 million population that is .15% out not .01% ASSUMING EVERYONE IS INFECTED. Falconspeed - you are obviously a Chinese propaganda troll.
https://www.nhs.uk/news/medical-practice/three-quarters-of-people-with-flu-have-no-symptoms/
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
New York City has a population of 8.4mm with 20% infection rate so 1.7mm cases
https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2020-04-23/new-york-coronavirus-antibody-tests-show-infection-rate-of-nearly-14%
15,000 people have died of Covid19 in New York City
15,000/1,700,000 is .98% not .01%
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page
But just like Covid19, the regular flu has non-symptomatic cases, estimated to be 75% of infections. So the infection mortality rate for seasonal flu is one quarter of .1% if you take into account everyone infected, not just those with symptoms. With Covid19 serology tests we are finding many people who are positive but don’t have symptoms. But for an apples to apples comparison with the seasonal flu you have to do the same thing, calculate based on all infections not just symptomatic infections. So, if NYC Covid infection mortality rate is .5% (actually they didn’t include probable deaths in this, which gives you an IFR of .8%), it is 20 times deadlier than regular flu.
.5% / .025% = 20 times deadlier than flu
.8% / .025% = 32 times deadlier than flu
It’s not the ‘end of the world’ virus, but it can kill.
**********************************
I haven’t seen any data that shows deaths caused by the virus of people WITHOUT underlying medical problems, such as obesity, diabetes, cardio, thyroid, etc.
Why can’t the so-called “experts” provide info to differentiate between the healthy and non-healthy deaths?
I watched the full version of the ER doctors interview. One of them said about 10% of the dead had no known underlying health issues.
The models from Fauci WERE DONE WITH mitigation in place, I can’t believe I have to keep REPEATING this WITH MITIGATION in place GOT IT!!!
+++++
I’m sure that’s true - once mitigation started. After that Fauci and everyone else guessed on the effectiveness.
They guessed. We guessed. Nobody knew how effective the mitigation would be. That’s why the models were all over the map.
But before there was mitigation Trump was told it could be a million or so Americans dead in a few months if he did nothing. No mitigation in that calculation.
What would you have done in his shoes. How do you think it would have turned out?
You have no proof whatsoever about the efficacy of the lockdown measures. All you have is your everlasting hope that it’s true so you don’t have to admit that you were scammed by the very people you wouldn’t trust to tell you the sky was blue.
+++++
You are making my point. You are right, I had no proof, I have no proof. But neither did anybody else and they still don’t.
But the infection and death data at the time (and currently) was quite good enough to show that this new virus spread faster and was more lethal than our regular flu.
Deny that if you like. I didn’t. Trump didn’t.
There is no proof the lockdown slowed anything. The infection and death curves are the same in almost every country so far regardless of mitigation efforts or lack thereof
Fauci is a DEEP STATE COUP PLOTTER FRAUD!
Doctors better start collectively shouting this is a political hoax or be prepared to go down a few pegs in the social ladder. Down there with lawyers and journalists.....
It is never about what the the Dimocratic Operatives imbedded in the so called main stream media calling themselves reporters, say. They wouldn’t know the truth if the truth bit them on their worthless @$$e$!!!
You could be right about that. The doctor could have made that comment. But at beginning he certainly didn’t.
We do need to take whatever we gained from the lockdown a start getting things back to normal. My only caution: expect the death rate to pick back up when we do. Hopefully the increase will be small and manageable.
bump
I looks at the lock down as "economic bleeding" to "help" the citizen patient because we know best. Wow, 21 century middle age bleeding...
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