Posted on 04/22/2020 7:02:10 AM PDT by taxcontrol
I have been informally tracking the mortality rate of Covid-19 by dividing the number of reported deaths by the number of confirmed cases. I see a trend developing that is concerning. I have been seeing the percentage increasing over time. When I started tracking, the rate was down around 2.8%. It has slowling been increasing and now it is around 4.8%.
People have realized that if they are not sick, nobody wants to test them, so they aren’t getting tested.
We are only testing the people with real symptoms in a lot of places. Which is fine, there is no particular value to testing someone who thinks he is sick, and is isolating, except to collect statistics, which isn’t the prime function of medical procedures.
I have little doubt that there are 10 times as many people who had the virus than are showing up positive in the data.
“I have been informally tracking the mortality rate of Covid-19 by dividing the number of reported deaths by the number of confirmed cases.”
sigh. mortality RATES don’t mean jackshit until we have enough IGG antibody testing of the general population with a statistically valid random sample to determine the infection rate ... until then, mortality rates are just complete bullshit ...
currently, the closest thing to the testing methodology outlined above was recently done in two separate studies in california, one by Standford and one by the LA Health Department, and they both found such a high percentage of people with IGG antibodies, meaning they had been infected and developed immunity from C-19 without even knowing it, that both estimated the mortality rates were 50-80 times lower than what others had been claiming, meaning the mortality rates are in the .1% to .3% range, which is exactly the range for influenza ...
Why is recruiting volunteers on Facebook less random than any other form of recruiting?
I read articles evaluating the reports and suggesting where they might be wrong, but I didn’t see any saying the tests might detect other kinds of viruses. One said that the only thing the researchers found when verifying the results is that they might get false positives, not false negatives.
Taxcontrol, what catnipman just said up above. Sorry for jumping on you at the beginning of this thread. But there is and has been much better info out there than some nebulous figures found online.
Consider just New York City and its suburban counties — Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester and Rockland - which are are responsible for 93% of the statewide case count (4-11). A. [https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/11/opinions/new-york-hit-hard-coronavirus-sepkowitz/index.html] Which was before NY city added 3,700 PROBABLE Deaths From COVID-19 And as of now NY state represents about 36% of all deaths by Covid-19. And according to Live Science, “A note sent by the New York City health department on March 20 advised health care professionals to conduct COVID-19 tests only on individuals who required hospitalization.”[https://www.livescience.com/why-covid19-coronavirus-deaths-high-new-york.html]
Also, nursing home deaths represent 25% of all COVID-19 fatalities in New York.” [https://abc7ny.com/nursing-home-homes-new-york-coronavirus-in-ny/6115589]
In contrast, Iceland - which does much random testing - reports that as of April 11 the country had “tested 10% of its population for coronavirus - a figure far higher than anywhere else in the world -” and that “that about 50% of those who test positive for the virus are asymptomatic [show no symptoms] when they are tested.” ”[https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/04/10/coronavirus-covid-19-small-nations-iceland-big-data/2959797001/]
However, it is estimated that about 80% of those infected with Covid-19 experience a mild case [WHO said the like] – about as serious as a regular cold – and recover without needing any special treatment.
Thus the mortality rate is basically based on the population most at risk of dying, and is about as accurate as counting the number of drunk drivers only based upon how many are tested
Because there’s “random” which is required, pretty much, for good “Science” and then there’s bias, like recruiting on Facebook.
I noticed the daily increase in confirmed cases seemed to spike in Democrat controlled States, the day Trump urged Governors to open up their economies.
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