Posted on 04/22/2020 7:02:10 AM PDT by taxcontrol
Take a look at “confirmed” deaths (tested as having COVID) versus “probable” (no COVID test, but doc put down COVID) in this NYC report
As late as 4/7, 500 out of the 800 listed deaths were “confirmed”. But in the last few days, the vast majority of listed COVID deaths from NYC are just “probable” (4/19, just 100 or so out of about 350 were “confirmed”).
This is despite the huge increase of availability of tests. This indicates to me that the death numbers are fraudulent.
Case Fatality Rate. # deaths/# of cases x 100. It is a new # every day because the “epidemic” isn’t over.
more like .05%. (it’s all political)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjcOBZBDWCc
You don’t have the information to do any figuring.
You don’t know how many cases there are. There could be 5 times, 10 times, 50 times as many as the 10,445.
There is currently no excuse for NOT testing every hospital patient admitted with COVID symptoms.
notice that all other causes of death have disappeared?
According to the CDC, the last update (4/21/20), total cases = 776093 and total deaths = 41758. Mortality rate: 41758/776093 = 0.0538.
Big bulge of very sick patients who have been on ventilators for some time finally succumbing and skewing the stats?
Are you saying the man eaten by that shark hasn’t died from the virus?
Damn.
I have been tracking the numbers from the CDC on a daily basis. For a few days the Case Fatality Rate was stabilizing at about 4%, then, just after the CDC changed the reporting criteria, it suddenly jumped to over 5%.
Coincidence? I think not.
Total of actual cases which have not been tested has to be much higher, so mortality rate is actually lower than that.
An accurate denominator is fool’s gold. Never gonna happen. An accurate numerator is corrupted by false classifications such as heart attack deaths being classified as CV deaths. Done for extra $s and also elevated fear and panic.
The deaths per million is the best number. The cumulative deaths in the US is flattening and if you look at the Worldometer log number for the US, it looks like it will be 60,000 total. That’s better than the original models by a good bit.
Having said that,if you take out NY and NJ, which are the worst cases in the world by deaths per million, the US is about where Germany is; way down the developed country list.
Maybe NY, NJ area got a different virus.
In a way it is testing that is screwing things up. Consider if the epidemic were managed in the way epidemics BEFORE testing were. Every positive case would depend on a clinician’s diagnosis (which, for my money is better than any test). There really would be almost NO “False Positives” because the patients don’t come to attention until they have symptoms. During an epidemic the Symptoms (that patients complain of) and the Signs (Things Physicians notice) would give you a very accurate # of “those infected” lacking only those that had yet to have symptoms because the clinician would very rapidly become very good at recognizing something he is seeing multiple times a day.
Traditionally those lacking symptoms as yet are traced through contact tracking and as they begin to have symptoms they get added to the list.
So what has been added to the “old way”? Tests. And the lack of understanding about what those test results mean, how accurate are they, and a # of other factors just confuses everything. Particularly “modeling” but in a large event like this some “modeling” really is required to match the logistics of resources to the demand. Sounds to me like maybe they let “testing” get out of hand. But then I am an old clinician. What do I know?
Well since I have several of the mortality indicators - yes I am very concerned.
"Following new CDC guidelines: "As of April 14, 2020, CDC case counts and death counts include both confirmed and probable cases and deaths." From Worldometer website.
Probable!
hospitals are declaring anyone they treat that dies as a virus death because they are ensured they will get paid for services. My wife used to work in a hospital finance and as soon as she saw the numbers magically spike she said if they die of old age, heart attack, or cancer it will be coded Covin so they will get paid. So the numbers are going up, except its because of the $$$.
Perhaps it is because deaths lag behind cases. After diagnosis, it may several days to several weeks later that someone dies. Assuming that ‘shelter at home’ and ‘social distancing’ are ‘flattening the curve’, the number of new cases is not rising to the extent that it did, but mortality lags behind.
IF the CCP-Coronavirus has not mutated into something more deadly, or the ChiComs and their partners in crime have not introduced something even more deadly into the West, the mortality rate should level out shortly.
JMO.
Forbidden or refusing to administer malaria cocktail as stipulated by Fuerer Fauci.
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