Stanford study shows 50-85 times more people infected by coronavirus

NOQ Report ^ | April 17, 2020 | by JD Rucker

[Hojczyk]

This may seem like bad news on the surface, but it is actually very positive news on two fronts. First, it demonstrates that many Americans have been infected and either never presented symptoms or presented symptoms mild enough to prevent them from seeking medical attention. It was previously known that some carriers of the coronavirus never get sick at all, but this study shows the number is much higher than previous estimates.

More importantly, it shows the mortality rate from infection is much, much lower than other studies have indicated. According to this comprehensive study by one of the leading medical labs in the nation, the mortality rate for infection of COVID-19 is on par with or even lower than that of the flu.

If we use today’s confirmed deaths, 69, and the estimated numbers in the Stanford study from early April, the mortality rate is between 0.08% and 0.14%, or 8-14 deaths per 10,000 infected. That is a far cry from the 3.5% or higher rate currently being used, a number that would attribute 350 deaths per 10,000 infected.

Having exponentially more infections may sound like bad news, but it’s actually extremely good news. It means millions of Americans have likely been infected and beat the coronavirus without knowing they had it. It also means mortality rates are much, much lower.

[a real Sheila]

The press won’t be able to convincingly claim that PDJT was the one who overstated the case.

Oh, but they WILL TRY and try and try.
Their lie will be repeated and bloviated until it becomes the truth to the dumb-masses.

[Sicon]

but why would so many "civilians" believe the flattening lie?

Because most “civilians” are as dumb as a bag of hammers.

[FreeReign]

I don't think that your math is correct. 50 times the cases means that you multiply the denominator by 50.

For example, 6% fatal outcomes would be represented by the fraction, 6/100. Now multiply the denominator by 50.

[shanover]

America: being killed by a 1000 “studies”. GTFO!

[brookwood]

"If we use today’s confirmed deaths, 69, and the estimated numbers in the Stanford study from early April, the mortality rate is between 0.08% and 0.14%, or 8-14 deaths per 10,000 infected. "

.4% of the entire population of Bergamo, Italy, is already dead from Covid19. How's that for an experiment?
.13% of the entire population of New York City is already dead from Covid19.
The case numbers in NYC are 300 times greater than in Santa Clara County CA. I think the statistics from NYC are more "statistically significant". I don't think the morttlity rate can be as low as .08% since 11,000 out of 9 million New Yorkers (.13%) are already dead. Nice try though, Bhattacharya and Co. These clowns are ruining their reputations. They took a 1.5% infection rate and tripled it by "adjusting for zip code, race, and sex". They could use the same trick with regular flu and get a .01% mortality rate. How many people have the flu and don't even know it! How many people have cancer and don't even know it?

Rolling On The Floor Laughing!

Here's the data, with links to official sources.
Date NYC Covid Deaths Pct of Average All-Cause deaths
4-4 387 2254 244.94%
4-5 218 2472 137.97%
4-6 266 2738 168.35%
4-7 806 3544 510.13%
4-8 716 4260 453.16%
4-9 518 4778 327.85%
4-10 651 5429 412.03%
4-11 313 5742 198.10%
4-12 440 6182 278.48%
4-13 1167 7349 738.61%
4-14 556 7905 351.90%
4-15 2462 10367 1558.23%
4-16 1110 11477 702.53%
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page
Average number of deaths in NYC prior to 2020 158 per day
https://www.quora.com/How-many-people-die-in-New-York-every-day
NYC had 2,220 deaths from Influenza and Pneumonia in 2014
NYC had 11,377 deaths from Covid19 in the 36 days since March 11.
https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Health/New-York-City-Leading-Causes-of-Death/jb7j-dtam
Deaths per day from Covid in the last 7 days are from 2 to 10 times the average number of deaths from all causes.
Since March 11th NYC also had 9,348 deaths NOT attributed to Covid 19.
Since March 11th there have been 20,825 deaths in NYC, in 36 days.
Normally there would be 5,688 deaths.
The total number of deaths in NYC in the last 36 days is 366% of the normal number of deaths.
The number of Covid19 deaths is already 5 times the number of flu deaths in an entire average year (11,477/2,220)
Minimum Infection Mortality Rate based on NYC data
11,477 deaths in population of 9,000,000, approx .13% of total population has already died
NYC Cases 4-15 111424 Pct Positive 55.9152519
Total NYC tests 4-15 199273

IF 56% * 9,000,000 = 5,040,000 people are infected in NYC, Infection Mortality Rate is .23%
It is ridiculous to assume the percentage of infected among those with NO symptoms is the same as in those with symptoms, who are the only ones eligible to be tested.
Infection Mortality Rate calculation from Bergamo, Italy.
Province of Bergamo,population 1,112,000
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Province_of_Bergamo
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-deaths-insig/death-at-home-the-unseen-toll-of-italys-coronavirus-crisis-idUSKBN21N08X
Deaths in Bergamo as of 4/5/2020 official 2060 estimate 4500 (based on total deaths in excess of normal deaths)
Death rate assuming everyone is infected - official deaths - .19%
Death rate assuming everyone is infected - estimated deaths - .4%

Again it is unrealistic to believe that EVERYONE is Bergamo was infected, so .4% is the MINIMUM Infection Mortality Rate. This is a study of over 1mm people, not a cruise ship or small sample.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2016-2017.html
Regular flu Infection Fatality Rate 2016-17
38,000 deaths from 29,000,000 SYMPTOMATIC ILLNESSES ONLY .13% Case Fatality Rate
Regular Flu Death Rate assuming everyone is infected 38,000/330,000,000 .011%

[steve86]

You’re so politicized and so cynical you can’t even read a straightforward article without getting all riled up.

[MMaschin]

So that means we all had this thing and no one needs to be on lock down. Is that right?

I'm fairly certain my wife and I had it in January.

I live in Texas but recently we purchased an old home in Northern Ky across from Cincinnati. It's were I grew up and I still have family there, so I decided to buy something up there instead of renting. I went up there in January to check out the house in winter, to see how well the 100 year old windows kept the cold out (surprisingly well!). I always see my best friend from high school when I'm in town and when I was up there he was bitching about just getting over the flu and how the flu shot "didn't do any good". He's kind of a cheap sob and was asking me if he could get his money back. He was telling me that there was definitely something going around in the area.

After I got home, I had what I thought was a mild flu. I took a couple of days off work and felt bad about it because I figured I was good enough to work - I just 'felt blah'. I had a mild fever, fatigue, a some general achiness and a bit of shortness of breath. I have some anxiety issues and when it's high I get tightness in the chest and shortness of breath, so I dismissed it as that.

When I came down with it my wife and I figured she would have it in a couple of days - but she didn't. A week later I was fine and she came down with something nasty. She thought it was the worst flu she had ever had. She had symptoms completely different than me, mostly digestive issues. After about 3 days she was better.

Knowing what we do now about Covid-19 and how it presents, I'm fairly certain that we had it. I'd love to take an anti-bodies test - I'd pay $500 if I knew it would be accurate.

I believe that Covid-19 spread MUCH quicker than expected and worked it's way into the US in December or early January. It was spreading around the US for 2-3 months before the lockdowns began. People were getting infected, some were getting sick and some were dying. They were being recorded as either pneumonia or chronic lower respiratory disease - the #4 cause of death in the US. And nobody really noticed. No hospitals were being overrun. No shortage of ICU beds or ventilators.

It's looking like the Cafe Fatality Rate of Covid-19 will be around 0.10%-0.13%. If 'Social Distancing' lowered the infection rate by 5%, that would represent 12,000,000 fewer infections. If the CFR is 0.13% that is 15,600 deaths avoided. If we divide the $2 Trillion stimulus by the number of deaths prevented that's $128,000,000 per death prevented. Was it worth it?

[gas_dr]

Twist as much as you want....as the poster pointed out. If we use today’s deaths and divide by cases the death rate is 0.08%. It is pretzel logic to quote all the stats of closed cases etc etc etc. we know the number of deaths at this point and the presumed number of case. This is classic statistical manipulation you are performing to fit a narrative.

[gas_dr]

The longer the statistical ranting the in my experience the more twists of logic that must be justified. The point of this article is that it probably exists a hell of a lot more in the community and has been spreading longer than thought and that we are probably approaching herd immunity if correct. That is good news in case you missed it. Why are you so bound and determine to have to be right about this being worse than it probably really is?

[gas_dr]

Have you noticed that here are people here invested in hoping that the death rate is apocalyptic. God forbid we ever have a true epidemic (Think Ebola).

[impimp]

It’s just the flu, bro. .1% mortality is equal to flu.

[impimp]

Your math is bad.

[Freeze923]

Do you really think Worldometer recoveries are accurate?

They have been EXTERMLY slow about reporting recoveries.

The diamond princess which docked on February 27th still has all 46 cases as active. I don’t think so.

Illinois 27,575 cases 50 recoveries?
Louisiana 23,118 cases again 50 recoveries?

Recoveries are not being reported — Doesn’t fit the narrative

[scouter]

36,842 / (36,842 + 59,328) = .383, or 38.3%
36,842 / (36,842 + (52,328 * 10)) = 36,842 / (36,842 + 523,280) = .073, or 7.3%
36,842 / (36,842 + (52,328 * 50)) = 36,842 / (36,842 + 1,842,100) = 0.14, or 1.4%
36,842 / (36,842 + (52,328 * 85)) = 36,842 / (36,842 + 4,447,880) = .008, or 0.8%

gas_dr, I'm not twisting anything. The numbers are what they are. Take them or leave them, as you will.

I limited my calculations to closed cases because that's how the case fatality rate is calculated. The mortality rate, which includes currently active cases is a different statistic, with a different meaning.

See https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/:

An alternative method, which has the advantage of not having to estimate a variable, and that is mentioned in the American Journal of Epidemiology study cited previously as a simple method that nevertheless could work reasonably well if the hazards of death and recovery at any time t measured from admission to the hospital, conditional on an event occurring at time t, are proportional, would be to use the formula:

CFR = deaths / (deaths + recovered)

[boxlunch]

It is good news! Dont understand why people on FR have to be so shrieky and defensive of their positions on this. Flubros vs Fearbros.

Our common enemy is CCP China, so that’s who we should be up in arms about! Not against each other.

[AFB-XYZ]

Kiss my ass, Steviekins.

You don’t like something I posted? DON’T FORNICATING READ IT.

[gas_dr]

But the assumption of case closed is artificial and does not meet the clinical picture. Your numbers calculate through. But we all know there is a reticence to declare a case resolved. It makes no sense clinically. So while your math is technically correct your baseline assumption (n my judgment) is flawed.

Further and I can’t believe I am saying this as a clinician....the death rate recently has been artificially inflated. In New York 3000+ cases were added without lab testing. This is a manipulation pure and simple

All that being said I think the final number once studied will be .1%

[gathersnomoss]

Stamford study?
Simple, stay away from Stamford.

[Starboard]

These “experts” get paid to lie

****************

So do most of our politicians. In fact, its the only “skill” they have.

[Drago]

I am going with “4% nationwide” infected & recovered in the past or currently infected...have read several studies that indicate the “range guess” of 3-5% infected nationwide which yields about 13.64 million people. Using the current fatality count that yields a “fatality rate” of 0.27%...about 2x as bad as a bad regular flu year. My guess as to the rate a year from now...I am going with 0.18%, somewhat worse than the bad flu year of 2017-2018. The “4% infected nationwide” number will rise with time driving down the “fatality rate”. Need way more antibody testing to make these numbers more accurate.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1