50X reported cases would be nearly deliverance.
Many more infected than previously assumed/measured. And now many more holding an immunity.
Alas, they have no way to validate their abstract measure.
We’ll have to watch tested/positive ratios to see.
Ya gotta wonder if it’s possible it’s carried by rodents.
And anything else in the sewer. If it’s in the sewer in those kinds of numbers, it’s going to infect anything else down that that’s susceptible.
duh
for someone who did well through calculus you sure bungled that math.
“50X reported cases would be nearly deliverance.”
Exodus NYC pretty much destroyed any chance we had of an accurate case count.
I just assume the number we have is the serious+ cases, further assume that is 20% of all the active cases and also assume 3 incubating cohorts of equal size. I may need to up that 3 to 5 or 6 if the latest estimates of R0 are legit.
Anyway, that’s my upper boundary for estimating he number of infected in the US. I know that not all the cases reported are serious or critical, but as testing falls behind in hotspots, the serious+ cases count will approach the reported cases count. No reliable way to break down the numbers right now.
Right now that puts us at 9.3 million infected (staying at 3 cohorts of incubating cases for now), a bit under 3% of the population.
I hope my number is high, even at an approximated R0 of 3, and we start to see sustained curve flattening.
I wonder what a [new cases today]/[new cases 5 days ago] plot would look like. That would tell us what the effective R0 is. Or was 5 days ago, anyway.