“50X reported cases would be nearly deliverance.”
Exodus NYC pretty much destroyed any chance we had of an accurate case count.
I just assume the number we have is the serious+ cases, further assume that is 20% of all the active cases and also assume 3 incubating cohorts of equal size. I may need to up that 3 to 5 or 6 if the latest estimates of R0 are legit.
Anyway, that’s my upper boundary for estimating he number of infected in the US. I know that not all the cases reported are serious or critical, but as testing falls behind in hotspots, the serious+ cases count will approach the reported cases count. No reliable way to break down the numbers right now.
Right now that puts us at 9.3 million infected (staying at 3 cohorts of incubating cases for now), a bit under 3% of the population.
I hope my number is high, even at an approximated R0 of 3, and we start to see sustained curve flattening.
I wonder what a [new cases today]/[new cases 5 days ago] plot would look like. That would tell us what the effective R0 is. Or was 5 days ago, anyway.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MaN6NREprmw
Here’s a video to go with your numbers. Mass burial (temporary from where I have read on FR) of deceased on Hart Island, NY.
With them laying large sheets of plywood over the stacked coffins, I would presume that is true - temporary burials.