Another Shipping update from DHL, tis is their current forecast for April for Asia:
“JP is already in recession, with real GDP expected to decline again in Q1 because of the impacts of the COVID-19 virus. Both foreign and domestic tourism have declined, & several major events have been scaled down, postponed, or canceled. Labor shortages in CN have hampered work resumption, as a good portion of the workforce traveled to their homeregionsduringLunarNewYear&cannotreturntoworkquicklyowingtotravelrestrictions&localself-quarantine requirements. The central government has announced a series of policies to limit the negative impacts of the outbreak on the economy. One key measure is to coordinate work resumption across regions. The authorities have also indicated they will intensify countercyclical monetary policy, as well as speed up and expand investment spending. IHS Markit predicts growth to rebound in 2021.”
So, it’s not coming back in April.
But how much of that April cargo loss is due to reduced demand?
How much of China’s reduced production is due to reduced demand?
Not clear to me.