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It is "Reduced" versus the prior model I posted.
During the interval from 3/14 - 3/22 the growth of confirmed cases was following very closely an equation where each day was the previous day raised using the exponent: 1.036662282.
f(X)^1.036662282 = f(X+1)
This recursive relationship began to fail 3/22 and I discovered that the next several days followed very closely the formula g(X)*1.25 = g(X+1).
I called this the "Reduced Exponential Model"
On 3/28 this model also became violated on the downside. (Yay!)
From 3/28 through 4/4 I the daily growth was still growing (meaning each day's NEW CASES were greater than the previous day's). This growth was MORE THAN LINEAR (i.e., same number each day) but I did not find a useful mathematical relationship.
Starting 4/5, THIS PATTERN WAS BROKEN. Tentatively, this was confirmed yesterday, i.e., the DAILY GROWTH RATE is NO LONGER INCREASING, and possibly decreasing.
Heretic!! Heretic I say...how dare you use math when we have an abundance of opinion and conjecture. /s
Great work, and great news!!!
Disestablishmentarian wrote:
“What is the definition (or formula) of reduced exponential model?
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It is “Reduced” versus the prior model I posted.
During the interval from 3/14 - 3/22 the growth of confirmed cases was following very closely an equation where each day was the previous day raised using the exponent: 1.036662282.
f(X)^1.036662282 = f(X+1)
This recursive relationship began to fail 3/22 and I discovered that the next several days followed very closely the formula g(X)*1.25 = g(X+1).
I called this the “Reduced Exponential Model”
On 3/28 this model also became violated on the downside. (Yay!)
From 3/28 through 4/4 I the daily growth was still growing (meaning each day’s NEW CASES were greater than the previous day’s). This growth was MORE THAN LINEAR (i.e., same number each day) but I did not find a useful mathematical relationship.
Starting 4/5, THIS PATTERN WAS BROKEN. Tentatively, this was confirmed yesterday, i.e., the DAILY GROWTH RATE is NO LONGER INCREASING, and possibly decreasing.”
Thanks for the explanation.