Nope. You’re reading into your biases.
Look at the total death rate in Italy, YOY. Tell me why 16x as many people are choosing to die this year than did on average for the prior decade - yet only 4 of the 16 are attributed to CCP-19. So what explains the 12x death rate from other causes? Occam’s Razor says they are undercounting CCP-19 deaths big time.
We have a 100% tested cohort to generate stats from. 55% asymptomatic. 25% mild. 15% serious. 5% critical. 1.8% of the cases are dead with 11% left to resolve. We have the entire cohort, so we know there can be no new infections and that 1.8% can not go down, only go up.
We know that the best we can expect is a 2% CFR. We also know that there is no mass of hidden asymptomatics or we’d have hotspots popping up all over the place. Well, we knew that, but since Exodus NYC (thanks, de Blasio!) the whole eastern seaboard is polluted. I pray people had the common sense to stay as far away from anybody from NYC as they could. But I expect to see surges all up and down the coast starting right about now.
Flu infects about 20% of the population every year. We get around 100 deaths per day from the flu during flu season. So far about 1% of the US population is infected with CCP-19 (we don’t have any way to get an exact number, the estimate is based on some very generous assumptions about the current confirmed case count). People are dying from CCP-19 at a pace of about 1,000 per day right now. 10 times the flu with 1% infection rate versus 20%. That’s pretty bad.
Our HCS is designed to handle a bad flu season, not 11 simultaneous flu seasons.
Some definitions for you, so we will all be talking the same language. Case Fatality Rate is deaths over (deaths plus recovered). Deaths-to-Cases Ratio is deaths/(total cases).
The DCR and CFR converge as cases resolve. That 1.8% is the DCR for that cohort referenced above. The CFR is currently 2.1%. They’ll meet somewhere in between, barring a surprise spike in deaths among the unresolved cases.
In other populations the DCR and CFR don’t necessarily meet in the middle. In some cases they can both go below or above the range if a large number of cases are discovered. That is what will happen in NYS and NYC most likely. The CFR and DCR for the state of NY (currently at 75% (yes, 75%) and 2.7% respectively) should converge below that 2.7% as long as NY holds its HCS together. And that is without any cures or treatments beyond what we have, so we can hope for better numbers than that. But that is optimistic until they actually do it.
I'm surprised at that. Way back at first someone offered that a 200K sample would be sufficient to predict 360M. Well, we now have 3 mil tested, or 1 in 360. So shouldn't we be able to predict infection rate from the results of 3M?
That is because of the infection. Which wouldn't be a major problem if "Antibody-dependent enhancement" where not distributed. ADE changes the cells into a long term memory for an infection in the lungs when a new strain of SARS is introduced. Italy and China received the ADE. The US, Germany, South Korea and the UK didn't receive this failed drug in large numbers. (hundreds of millions where distributed world wide)