Fighting The Coronavirus: Good Learnings From Germany

PeakProsperty ^ | Mar 30, 2020 | PeakProsperty

[DannyTN]

My Notes from video:
Video at link

PeakProsperity

• Germany IS recording all deaths that test positive as a CV death regardless of whether they had other conditions.
• Their low Case Mortality Rate could be due to high levels of testing.
• Germany is testing 500,000 cases per week.
• If other countries tested more, their CMR rates would decrease.

• Even if asymptomatic cases did bring the rate down to 6x or 4x worse than the flu, it's many times more than that for the hospital systems, because no one has immunity so we all get it at the same time.

• Shifting Baswelines Process
• Compares the numbers to last month.

• Looks bad in Ecuator
• Which looks bad for Summer pause theory
• Currenty 80s and 90s there
• Bad reports out of Italy. People stealing from grocery stories. Etc
• Dr. Zelenko discussion
• Review of Jan 29 projections.
• Canada still saying don't wear masks unless you have symptoms. :( and other really bad advice.
• Picture from 1918 with everyone masked.
• Germany plans to test hundreds of thousands for antibioties. will be issued "immunity certificates"
• Cares Act
• Breaks down
• Everyone wears a mask + testing + social distancing + Treatments is how you beat this.
• 3 reasons everyone should wear a mask. Stops expelling particles. Reminds you not to touch your face. Better chance of starting with a small innoculum which gives you a better disease outcome.

[PGR88]

I have seen numerous doctors in Korea and China (not the government) say that masks are extremely important. Any kind of mask in general public (obviously not hospital environment) greatly reduces the chance for casual human-human spread. Besides government mandates, its a kind of social shaming as well.

[PGR88]

Also, scientists and government will never have clear knowledge and information on this disease until antibody testing is widely available.

Only from that will we find out how many people really had it, and what the real “R0” transmissibility is, and under what particular conditions it spread. Policy makers now seem to be operating under extreme “worst case” scenarios.

Unfortunately, that will likely only be possible well after the present crisis has passed.