Posted on 03/30/2020 5:01:58 AM PDT by impimp
The American death rate will be far lower than the Italian and Spanish death rates - even with falsely attributing deaths of people with severe preconditions to Corona. Expensive drug cocktails recommended by Trump are helping many people. This will wind up being approximately as deadly as the h1n1 flu of a decade ago. Fauci is wrong to say 100-200k will die.
My concern is for the greater harm this shutdown will have on the economic lives of people and for the loss of constitutional rights. Hoping for an Easter end to this lockdown - end of April is excessive.
I guess you missed the graph at 53.
Or you are just incapable of understanding what exponential growth means.
The point is they also said
“the model is just predictive a lot can change.”
“models are only as good as the assumptions they are built on”.
which means don’t get stuck on the numbers.
They are stating numbers because people have been constantly trying to pin them down on numbers, but the numbers are qualified by their other statements about the models that the numbers come from.
Fairly easy to understand.
How many people do you know that go get tested for the flu, when they get sick?
Compare that to the vast majority of people who get the wuhan flu, that have a mild case (80% plus). Are these people going to really go in and get tested? NO!
The death rate is SIGNIFICANTLY lower.
Here’s video of DR. Fauchi talking about not getting stuck on the numbers, and that they want to “drive it all the way down” meaning way under the minimum the models suggest.All this is context to the modled number;
https://youtu.be/lg—anohtSQ?t=1883
Dr.Birx “we’re hoping the models are not completely right, that we can do better than the predictions are”
https://youtu.be/lg—anohtSQ?t=2900
Dr Fauchi, more on models
https://youtu.be/lg—anohtSQ?t=3001
I don’t think Iceland represents the norm, do you?
And how many people die and they simply write it up to respitory failure (which is what China is doing)? That is a double sword argument. Fact is neither of us knows what the true number is and we won’t know. But you can’t say the death rate is significantly lower.
2 million equals crazy talk - Flubros don’t engage in that kind of crazy talk.
I understand that humor is sometimes the best medicine.
And normally I would have a blast participating with this shtick.
I have children in direct danger from this bug. So I just ain’t finding it funny.
I’ll just see myself out of the thread and leave you boys (and girls) to it.
I doubt Iceland is completely the norm. But I also strongly believe death rates whose denominator consists of tested cases is not normal or valid in any way. Look at it this way: If one half of people are asymptomatic, and only people with symptoms can take tests, then our 1.5% death rate is down to 0.75%.
Nothing like 5%!
One last comment before you leave - if I had to choose between my newborn infant getting the Corona or a common cold I would choose the Corona.
I appreciate your thoughts but does it change anything on a practical level? The models are what we have, the experts we’ve chosen are going with these numbers, and we’re not going to risk a million lives because they can be wrong.
No, I agree.
Not wishing to debate your numbers, and using your numbers, it still is far more serious than the typical .001% death rate in flu season. Even with this small percent, compared to the average flu, YOUR number suggest the following:
Normal flu (.001%)-Out of 10,000 people 10 will die.
Covir-19 (.0075%)-Out of 10,000 people 75 will die. (Over a seven times increase.)
We don't have good numbers but we just went through a very bad flu season earlier this winter season and no one talked about shutting anything down. Have a friend who was on a cruise that everyone (literally) on board got sick (not with Covir-19). Yet they were allowed to disembark.
Now we see whole countries are shutting down their workforce including places like Russia and China. This isn't the action of someone trying to get Trump out of office. Nor is this an overreaction. Seeing how this all started from Wuhan, China where they make bioterrorist weapons, and Italy flew in a number of Wuhan citizens to work in their factory and now it a virus hot spot, I think this is a no brainer. Whether it was intentional or accidental is unclear. I don't think we're being told everything.
“Nor is this an overreaction.”
That is where we differ. I find many steps taken appropriate, but believe the shut-down of the economy to the point of putting millions out of work worse than accepting that a number of people will die - just as they do from a large number of causes.
From the perspective of society, if an additional million die in America in 2020, it would only cut the rate of GROWTH in our population by 50%. If 300,000 die, it would cut the rate of growth by 15%.
Do these age well?? From 30 March...
Spain and Italy deaths per million still higher than USA.
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