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To: cgbg

The infection and hospitalization numbers at present do not indicate that herd immunity has kicked in yet.


818 posted on 03/27/2020 1:35:32 AM PDT by metmom (...fixing our eyes on Jesus, the Author and Perfecter of our faith...)
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To: metmom

If the herd has 50% immunity the R0 of the disease is halved. I suppose. With social distancing and prophylactic measures, the R0 can be reduced further. We need to get it well below 1, as close to 0 as possible.

A R0 of .8, for example, means that 500,000 infected infect 400,000 who infect 320,000 in turn and those infect 256,000 and so on.

Since it takes so long to recover you still have the risk of HCS overload.


915 posted on 03/27/2020 8:37:47 AM PDT by calenel (Don't panic. Prepare and be vigilant. Join the war effort. On the human side.)
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