[cgbg]

I am expecting the death numbers to be steadily increasing right up to Easter.

I am not confident about exactly how far the curve will be bent by then—there is such a long lag time between getting the disease and dying (on average) that folks could be getting infected today and still die the day before Easter.

[mrsmith]

Yeah, the death numbers may not have even flattened.
Though hoping treatments will be effective and they will.

[Thud]

IMO the ascending death numbers, per week, won't peak until July. You should incorporate a 30-day lag period for the cycle of exposure to infection to hospitalization to death.

Even the currently exposed need at least 15 days from infection to death.

"I am expecting the death numbers to be steadily increasing right up to Easter."