Also, 33 day growth % still 6 points off first 24 days. That is, it would take fairly large increases to "move the line" back above 37%. At 31%, doubling rate is approx 2.3 days. With US 33 day projected at 25%, doubling would be closer to 2.7 days.
Dr W, with US 8 day projection pegged to Italy, model is now showing 2k cum total. And you predicted that earlier this month through experience/intuition?
Italy 60.5 IT v US USA 330.4 Day Date Cum Total % Chg Daily Ratio Date Cum Total % Chg Daily 24 3/15/2020 1,809 25.5% 368 3.5 3/23/2020 516 27.4% 111 25 3/16/2020 2,158 19.3% 349 3.5 3/24/2020 617 19.5% 101 26 3/17/2020 2,503 16.0% 345 3.5 3/25/2020 715 16.0% 99 27 3/18/2020 2,978 19.0% 475 3.5 3/26/2020 851 19.0% 136 28 3/19/2020 3,405 14.3% 427 3.5 3/27/2020 973 14.3% 122 29 3/20/2020 4,032 18.4% 627 3.5 3/28/2020 1,152 18.4% 179 30 3/21/2020 4,825 19.7% 793 3.5 3/29/2020 1,379 19.7% 227 31 3/22/2020 5,475 13.5% 650 3.5 3/30/2020 1,564 13.5% 186 32 3/23/2020 6,077 11.0% 602 3.5 3/31/2020 1,736 11.0% 172 33 3/24/2020 6,820 12.2% 743 3.5 4/1/2020 1,949 12.2% 212 Gross differential 3.5 Population differential 5.5 Per capita differential 19.1 Growth rate 24 Days 36.69% 29.73% 33 Days 30.67% 25.80% Sources https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy
Social distancing withdraws fresh victims. The looming question is how many latent spreaders remain to restart the infection process once "normal" interaction resumes.